流动性冲击下的国际资本流动与经济增长波动

发布时间：2018-07-07 10:40

本文选题：流动性冲击 + 国际资本流动　；参考：《华东师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：在过去的十年中,我们见证了发达国家以及发展中国家的国际资本流动在规模和结构上的巨大改变。这篇论文构建了一个简单的基于两国的一般均衡框架,来说明一国宏观政策和经济结构改变造成的全球流动性冲击对于国际资本流动的影响存在显著联系。实证方面,我们以中美为背景指出中国的国际资本流动如果受到源自美国的流动性冲击,投资者会倾向安全资产,我国资本流动的波动性会显著增大,其程度能够在公式中得到体现。我们的结果说明这种冲击对于我国国际资本的内流和外流具有不同程度的影响,尽管在总流动规模上对于不同冲击具有一定的相似性。我们同时发现,美国短期利率是我国国际资本流动波动性的重要影响因素。继而,我们考察国际资本流动对于包括中国在内的新兴市场经济体以及发展中国家经济增长的影响。我们构建的模型框架是基于一国债务状况来考察其可实现的不同经济均衡。这篇文献为资本流动对于新兴市场经济体的冲击提供了定量分析,考察了这种宏观效应是否存在和表现形式以及决定因素。实证分析方法是基于动态面板数据结构,我们可以以此发现国内出现率、金融发展程度、债务状况以及其他内部因素的作用可以有效避免国际资本流动对于经济增长波动的冲击。
[Abstract]:Over the past decade, we have witnessed significant changes in the size and structure of international capital flows in both developed and developing countries. This paper constructs a simple general equilibrium framework based on two countries to illustrate that the impact of global liquidity shocks caused by macroeconomic policies and economic structural changes on international capital flows is significantly related. Empirically, we point out that if China's international capital flows are impacted by the liquidity from the United States, investors will tend to be safe assets, and the volatility of China's capital flows will increase significantly. Its degree can be reflected in the formula. Our results show that the impact of this shock on the internal and external flows of international capital in China is of varying degrees, although there are certain similarities in the total flow scale for different shocks. At the same time, we find that American short-term interest rate is an important factor affecting the volatility of China's international capital flows. Then we examine the impact of international capital flows on the growth of emerging market economies, including China, as well as developing countries. Our model framework is based on a country's debt situation to examine the different economic balances that can be achieved. This paper provides a quantitative analysis of the impact of capital flows on emerging market economies and examines the existence and manifestation of this macro effect and its determinants. The empirical analysis method is based on the dynamic panel data structure, we can find the domestic emergence rate, the degree of financial development, The role of debt and other internal factors can effectively avoid the impact of international capital flows on economic growth fluctuations.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F113.7;F831.7

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