广东省消费信贷与经济增长的关系研究

发布时间：2018-07-13 08:32

【摘要】：20世纪50年代，西方发达国家开始运用金融政策宏观调控消费，而在此之前，主要是运用财政和收入分配政策。90年代初，部分发达国家陷入经济衰退，各国政府采用了发展消费信贷来刺激有效需求。此后，消费信贷得到快速的发展。1999年3月，中国人民银行下发《关于开展个人消费信贷的指导意见》，我国消费信贷业务开始全面推广。经过十几年的发展，我国消费信贷余额从1998年的456.17亿元增长到2011年的88777.85亿元，广东省也增长到2011年的12382.8亿元，占全国的13.95％。目前，消费信贷已经成为商业银行最具潜力的一项增值业务。那么，消费信贷是否对广东省经济增长起到推动作用、作用有多大、两者之间存在着什么样的关系，则是本文将要研究的问题。本文运用了理论与实证相结合的研究方法。先从基础理论入手，分别阐述了经济增长、消费、信贷和需求等相关理论，采用广东省2004～2011年GDP、消费信贷余额和消费需求的季度数据构建向量自回归模型，通过Johansen协整检验、脉冲响应、方差分解、格兰杰因果检验等方法，实证研究了消费信贷与经济增长的关系以及它们之间的相关关系，并对模型中的相关问题进行经济分析。研究发现，三者存在长期稳定的关系，广东省消费信贷对GDP的拉动作用并不显著，经过分析，作者发现造成该现象的原因是广东省仍然是以投资、出口为主导的经济增长模式，居民收入水平增长滞后于经济增长，个人、城乡、企业、地域、行业之间的收入差距较大，导致整体消费水平未能跟上经济发展。在此基础上，作者相对提出了一些策略，如进一步完善收入分配制度，进一步完善消费信贷相关政策等。总之，，消费信贷是一个多维度的经济问题，值得我们进行更深层次的探索。由于作者能力及其他条件的限制，本文涉及层次较浅，但作者仍然希望能够对该领域的研究有一定的借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:In the 1950s, the western developed countries began to use financial policies to control consumption macroscopically, but before that, mainly using fiscal and income distribution policies in the early 1990s, some developed countries fell into economic recession. Governments have adopted the development of consumer credit to stimulate effective demand. Since then, consumer credit has developed rapidly. In March 1999, the people's Bank of China issued the guidelines on developing personal consumption Credit, and the business of consumer credit in China began to be popularized in an all-round way. After more than ten years' development, the balance of consumer credit in China has increased from 45.617 billion yuan in 1998 to 8.877785 trillion yuan in 2011, and that in Guangdong Province has also increased to 1.23828 trillion yuan in 2011, accounting for 13.95 yuan of the whole country. At present, consumer credit has become the most potential value-added business of commercial banks. Then, whether consumer credit plays a role in promoting economic growth in Guangdong Province, how big the role is, and what the relationship between the two is, is the question to be studied in this paper. This article uses the theory and the empirical research method. Starting with the basic theory, this paper expounds the relevant theories of economic growth, consumption, credit and demand, and constructs a vector autoregressive model using the quarterly data of Guangdong Province's GDP from 2004 to 2011, the balance of consumer credit and consumer demand, and adopts Johansen cointegration test. Impulse response, variance decomposition, Granger causality test and other methods, empirical study of the relationship between consumer credit and economic growth and their correlation, and economic analysis of the relevant problems in the model. It is found that there is a long-term and stable relationship among the three, and the pulling effect of consumer credit on GDP in Guangdong Province is not significant. After analysis, the author finds that the reason for this phenomenon is that Guangdong Province is still an economic growth model dominated by investment and export. The income level of residents lags behind the economic growth, the income gap between individuals, urban and rural areas, enterprises, regions and industries is large, resulting in the overall consumption level can not keep up with the economic development. On this basis, the author puts forward some relative strategies, such as further improving the income distribution system and consumptive credit related policies. In short, consumer credit is a multi-dimensional economic problem, worth our further exploration. Due to the limitations of the author's ability and other conditions, this paper involves a relatively shallow level, but the author still hopes to be able to study in this field has some reference significance.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.4;F127

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