原油价格、流动性与我国的通货膨胀
发布时间：2018-07-21 14:58
【摘要】：在国际市场原油价格变动对我国通货膨胀具有一定影响的同时流动性过剩仍是一个不可忽视的问题。为了明确影响我国通货膨胀的因素,本文选择广义货币供应量、产出、国际原油价格和通货膨胀率等变量,运用CVAR模型方法对影响我国通货膨胀的因素加以分析。经验分析结果表明:我国具有稳定货币需求关系和菲利普斯曲线;原油价格对我国通货膨胀具有长期影响,但是影响我国通货膨胀的更为重要的因素是流动性过剩和经济过热。
[Abstract]:While the change of crude oil price in the international market has a certain impact on China's inflation, excess liquidity is still a problem that can not be ignored. In order to determine the factors that affect China's inflation, this paper selects variables such as broad money supply, output, international crude oil price and inflation rate, and analyzes the factors that affect China's inflation by using CVAR model. The empirical results show that China has a stable monetary demand relationship and Phillips curve, and the crude oil price has a long-term impact on China's inflation, but the more important factors affecting China's inflation are excess liquidity and overheated economy.
【作者单位】： 南开大学经济学院国际经济研究所;天津外国语大学国际商学院;
【分类号】：F224;F764.1;F822.5
[Abstract]:While the change of crude oil price in the international market has a certain impact on China's inflation, excess liquidity is still a problem that can not be ignored. In order to determine the factors that affect China's inflation, this paper selects variables such as broad money supply, output, international crude oil price and inflation rate, and analyzes the factors that affect China's inflation by using CVAR model. The empirical results show that China has a stable monetary demand relationship and Phillips curve, and the crude oil price has a long-term impact on China's inflation, but the more important factors affecting China's inflation are excess liquidity and overheated economy.
【作者单位】： 南开大学经济学院国际经济研究所;天津外国语大学国际商学院;
【分类号】：F224;F764.1;F822.5
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