中东欧国家银行业开放过程中金融风险研究
发布时间：2018-07-21 21:56
【摘要】：自20世纪90年代中期以来,中东欧国家开始逐渐降低外资银行的准入门槛,力图通过引入外资银行以提高本国的银行效率。随着外资银行的不断涌入,中东欧国家银行业出现了新的风险。本文将从微观角度出发,就中东欧国家银行经营风险、银行资本逆周期风险、银行间借贷风险以及银行贷款和企业融资风险四个方面进行详细论述。此外,由于中东欧国家银行业监管体系之间存在着差异性,因此本文还将对这些国家银行业的监管进行比较分析。 通过研究发现,(1)中东欧国家银行业开展的多元化经营业务虽然能够拓展银行盈利渠道,但也不可避免地挤占银行的传统业务收入,可能造成银行传统业务风险被低估,进而增加银行风险。此外,从实证中可以发现,适度开展多元化业务能够有效降低银行风险,但如果过度开展多元化业务反而会增加银行风险,最终导致银行的不稳定。(2)中东欧国家银行业资本呈现逆周期现象,其中银行间借贷与银行资本不仅无显著关系,且多元化经营中的佣金收入业务和证券买卖业务也无法有效补充银行资本,正因为如此,银行不得不面对银行间借贷以及银行多元化经营所带来的风险。(3)中东欧国家银行业存在具有其特色的银行间借贷行为。其中,借出资金的银行经营效率并不高,而借入资金的银行往往会将资金用于弥补自身流动性不足,一旦货币政策趋紧就会增加银行间借贷的风险。随着外资银行不断进入中东欧国家,这种银行间借贷纽带将被逐渐削弱,而银行的流动性资产持有比率也会随之降低,这也会增加整个银行业的流动性风险。(4)从银行贷款的角度看,外币贷款、家庭信贷过快增长、企业过度依赖间接融资以及外资银行的“摘樱桃”行为都会不同程度地增加中东欧国家的银行业风险。而从企业融资角度看,贷款手续和申请周期的加快、小企业融资约束以及外资银行对内资企业贷款歧视也都会增加中东欧国家实体企业的经营风险。 本文的结构安排如下： 导论。就本研究的理论意义和现实意义以及所要解决的主要问题、研究框架、新意和不足进行了论述。 第一章、文献综述。主要对银行业开放的溢出效应及对其金融稳定的影响、银行业开放与金融风险、银行业开放与金融危机以及银行业监管做了相关文献综述。在银行业开放与金融风险中,分别就银行间借贷及流动性风险、银行多元化经营、银行资本风险做详细的文献回顾和总结。 第二章、中东欧国家银行业的改革进程。分别从中东欧国家金融银行业在计划经济中的模式特征、20世纪90年代初期中东欧国家银行业改革、20世纪90年代中后期和本世纪初中东欧国家银行业改革与发展以及全球金融危机冲击下的中东欧国家银行业做了详细的描述。 第三章、中东欧国家银行业经营风险。本章首先分析了中东欧国家银行多元化经营的现状。在建立了相关模型后得出银行多元化经营的影响因素及其与传统业务的关系。同时,针对银行开展多元化业务是否会对传统业务造成挤占及低估做了详细分析,并就开展多元化业务对银行稳定性的影响做了实证分析。 第四章、中东欧国家银行资本逆周期风险分析。本章首先对中东欧国家银行资本充足率要求做了说明,并依托模型解释了一旦资本充足率要求上升可能会对银行体系产生的影响及风险。同时,就中东欧国家银行资本逆周期性、银行间流动性风险及多元化风险对银行资本的影响做了实证分析。 第五章、中东欧国家银行间市场风险。本章首先对于中东欧国家银行间借贷的形成原因和现状进行了说明。在借助简单的理论模型后可以发现,中东欧国家的银行间借贷行为其实是不稳定的,且容易形成风险。随后分别从银行间借贷的影响因素,以及考虑中东欧国家银行业市场结构、银行业脆弱性对银行间借贷的影响两个方面进行了分析。 第六章、中东欧国家的银行贷款及企业融资。本章首先对中东欧国家特有的贷款模式做了详细说明,并就中东欧国家的这些贷款模式可能造成的潜在风险做了分析。同时,对中东欧国家的企业融资现状做了相关说明,并就这些融资中的潜在风险做了解释分析。 第七章、中东欧国家的银行业监管。本章首先就中东欧国家银行监管体系做了相关说明,并就银行政策套利行为、中东欧国家银行间监督问题和银行业监督模式等内容进行研究,分别从政策漏洞、市场化监督弥补政府监督以及监督模式进行比较分析。 第八章、总结、政策建议及对中国的启示。首先,在对前文各章进行总结的同时对中东欧国家银行业的风险给出了相关政策建议。其次,就借鉴中东欧国家银行体系改革过程中出现的风险对中国银行业改革提出启示。
[Abstract]:Since the mid 1990s, central and Eastern European countries have gradually reduced the access threshold of foreign banks, trying to improve their banking efficiency by introducing foreign banks. With the continuous influx of foreign banks, new risks have emerged in the Middle East European countries' banking industry. Risk, the reverse cycle risk of bank capital, the risk of interbank lending and the risk of bank loan and enterprise financing are discussed in detail. In addition, because there are differences between the banking regulatory system in Middle East and European countries, this paper will also make a comparative analysis of the banking supervision in these countries.
Through the study, it is found that (1) although the diversification of banking industry in central and Eastern European countries can expand the channel of bank profit, but also inevitably occupy the traditional business income of the bank, it may cause the bank's traditional business risk to be underestimated and then increase the bank risk. It can effectively reduce the risk of the bank, but if the excessive diversification of the business will increase the bank risk and eventually lead to the instability of the bank. (2) there is a reverse cycle phenomenon in the Middle East European countries' banking capital, in which the interbank lending has not only no significant relationship with the bank capital, and the commission income business and the securities trading industry in the diversified operation. There is no effective supplement to bank capital, which is why banks have to face the risks of inter bank lending and bank diversification. (3) there are interbank lending behaviors with its own characteristics in the banking sector in the Middle East and Europe. Gold is used to make up for the lack of liquidity. Once the monetary policy is tight, the risk of interbank lending will be increased. As foreign banks continue to enter the central and Eastern European countries, this interbank lending bond will be gradually weakened and the bank's liquidity ratio will decrease, which will also increase the liquidity risk of the entire banking sector. (4 From the perspective of bank loans, foreign currency loans, excessive growth of household credit, excessive reliance on indirect financing and the "cherry picking" behavior of foreign banks will increase the risk of banking in central and Eastern European countries to varying degrees. From the perspective of enterprise financing, loan procedures and application cycles, small business financing constraints and foreign investment will be considered. Banks' discrimination against domestic funded enterprises will also increase the operational risk of entities in central and Eastern European countries.
The structure of this article is as follows:
Introductory remarks are made on the theoretical significance and practical significance of the study, as well as the main problems to be solved, the research framework, new ideas and shortcomings.
The first chapter is a literature review, mainly on the spillover effect of banking opening and its impact on its financial stability, banking openness and financial risk, banking opening and financial crisis, and banking supervision. In the open and financial risks of banking, the interbank lending and liquidity risk, and the diversification of banks The bank's capital risks are reviewed and summarized in detail.
The second chapter, the reform process of the banking industry in central and Eastern European countries, from the pattern characteristics of the financial banking industry in the central and Eastern European countries in the planned economy, the reform of the central and Eastern European countries' banking industry in the early 1990s, the middle and late 1990s, the reform and development of the Eastern European countries' banking industry in middle school and the Middle East under the impact of the global financial crisis. The European banking industry has made a detailed description.
The third chapter is the risk of banking operation in central and Eastern European countries. This chapter first analyzes the current situation of diversification in central and Eastern European countries. After establishing the related models, the factors affecting the diversification of banks and their relationship with traditional business are obtained. At the same time, whether the diversification of business will cause and underestimate the traditional business. This paper makes a detailed analysis and makes an empirical analysis of the impact of diversified business on bank stability.
The fourth chapter, the reverse cycle risk analysis of bank capital in central and Eastern European countries. This chapter first explains the capital adequacy requirements of central and Eastern European countries, and relies on the model to explain the possible impact and risk on the banking system once the capital adequacy requirements rise. Meanwhile, the reverse periodicity and inter-bank flow of the capital of central and Eastern European countries. The impact of dynamic risk and diversification risk on bank capital is empirically analyzed.
The fifth chapter, the risk of interbank market between central and Eastern European countries. This chapter first explains the causes and status of inter bank lending in central and Eastern European countries. After a simple theoretical model, it can be found that the interbank lending behavior in central and Eastern European countries is actually unstable and easily forms a risk. Then, the interbank lending is separately borrowed. The influencing factors, as well as the two aspects of the banking market structure in eastern and central Europe, the impact of banking fragility on interbank lending are analyzed.
The sixth chapter, bank loans and enterprise financing in central and Eastern European countries. This chapter first gives a detailed account of the specific loan patterns in central and Eastern European countries, and analyses the potential risks caused by these loan models in central and Eastern European countries. The potential risk was explained and analyzed.
The seventh chapter, banking supervision in central and Eastern European countries. This chapter first made a related explanation on the banking regulatory system in central and Eastern European countries, and studied the Arbitrage Behavior of the bank policy, the interbank supervision and the banking supervision model in Middle East and European countries, and made up for the government supervision and supervision mode from the policy loopholes and the market supervision. Make a comparative analysis.
The eighth chapter, the summary, the policy suggestions and the enlightenment to China. First, in the summary of the foregoing chapters, it gives the relevant policy suggestions to the risk of the banking industry in the Middle East and Europe. Secondly, it puts forward the enlightenment to the reform of China's silver industry by borrowing the risks from the reform of the central and Eastern European countries' banking system.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F835.1
，
本文编号：2136978
[Abstract]:Since the mid 1990s, central and Eastern European countries have gradually reduced the access threshold of foreign banks, trying to improve their banking efficiency by introducing foreign banks. With the continuous influx of foreign banks, new risks have emerged in the Middle East European countries' banking industry. Risk, the reverse cycle risk of bank capital, the risk of interbank lending and the risk of bank loan and enterprise financing are discussed in detail. In addition, because there are differences between the banking regulatory system in Middle East and European countries, this paper will also make a comparative analysis of the banking supervision in these countries.
Through the study, it is found that (1) although the diversification of banking industry in central and Eastern European countries can expand the channel of bank profit, but also inevitably occupy the traditional business income of the bank, it may cause the bank's traditional business risk to be underestimated and then increase the bank risk. It can effectively reduce the risk of the bank, but if the excessive diversification of the business will increase the bank risk and eventually lead to the instability of the bank. (2) there is a reverse cycle phenomenon in the Middle East European countries' banking capital, in which the interbank lending has not only no significant relationship with the bank capital, and the commission income business and the securities trading industry in the diversified operation. There is no effective supplement to bank capital, which is why banks have to face the risks of inter bank lending and bank diversification. (3) there are interbank lending behaviors with its own characteristics in the banking sector in the Middle East and Europe. Gold is used to make up for the lack of liquidity. Once the monetary policy is tight, the risk of interbank lending will be increased. As foreign banks continue to enter the central and Eastern European countries, this interbank lending bond will be gradually weakened and the bank's liquidity ratio will decrease, which will also increase the liquidity risk of the entire banking sector. (4 From the perspective of bank loans, foreign currency loans, excessive growth of household credit, excessive reliance on indirect financing and the "cherry picking" behavior of foreign banks will increase the risk of banking in central and Eastern European countries to varying degrees. From the perspective of enterprise financing, loan procedures and application cycles, small business financing constraints and foreign investment will be considered. Banks' discrimination against domestic funded enterprises will also increase the operational risk of entities in central and Eastern European countries.
The structure of this article is as follows:
Introductory remarks are made on the theoretical significance and practical significance of the study, as well as the main problems to be solved, the research framework, new ideas and shortcomings.
The first chapter is a literature review, mainly on the spillover effect of banking opening and its impact on its financial stability, banking openness and financial risk, banking opening and financial crisis, and banking supervision. In the open and financial risks of banking, the interbank lending and liquidity risk, and the diversification of banks The bank's capital risks are reviewed and summarized in detail.
The second chapter, the reform process of the banking industry in central and Eastern European countries, from the pattern characteristics of the financial banking industry in the central and Eastern European countries in the planned economy, the reform of the central and Eastern European countries' banking industry in the early 1990s, the middle and late 1990s, the reform and development of the Eastern European countries' banking industry in middle school and the Middle East under the impact of the global financial crisis. The European banking industry has made a detailed description.
The third chapter is the risk of banking operation in central and Eastern European countries. This chapter first analyzes the current situation of diversification in central and Eastern European countries. After establishing the related models, the factors affecting the diversification of banks and their relationship with traditional business are obtained. At the same time, whether the diversification of business will cause and underestimate the traditional business. This paper makes a detailed analysis and makes an empirical analysis of the impact of diversified business on bank stability.
The fourth chapter, the reverse cycle risk analysis of bank capital in central and Eastern European countries. This chapter first explains the capital adequacy requirements of central and Eastern European countries, and relies on the model to explain the possible impact and risk on the banking system once the capital adequacy requirements rise. Meanwhile, the reverse periodicity and inter-bank flow of the capital of central and Eastern European countries. The impact of dynamic risk and diversification risk on bank capital is empirically analyzed.
The fifth chapter, the risk of interbank market between central and Eastern European countries. This chapter first explains the causes and status of inter bank lending in central and Eastern European countries. After a simple theoretical model, it can be found that the interbank lending behavior in central and Eastern European countries is actually unstable and easily forms a risk. Then, the interbank lending is separately borrowed. The influencing factors, as well as the two aspects of the banking market structure in eastern and central Europe, the impact of banking fragility on interbank lending are analyzed.
The sixth chapter, bank loans and enterprise financing in central and Eastern European countries. This chapter first gives a detailed account of the specific loan patterns in central and Eastern European countries, and analyses the potential risks caused by these loan models in central and Eastern European countries. The potential risk was explained and analyzed.
The seventh chapter, banking supervision in central and Eastern European countries. This chapter first made a related explanation on the banking regulatory system in central and Eastern European countries, and studied the Arbitrage Behavior of the bank policy, the interbank supervision and the banking supervision model in Middle East and European countries, and made up for the government supervision and supervision mode from the policy loopholes and the market supervision. Make a comparative analysis.
The eighth chapter, the summary, the policy suggestions and the enlightenment to China. First, in the summary of the foregoing chapters, it gives the relevant policy suggestions to the risk of the banking industry in the Middle East and Europe. Secondly, it puts forward the enlightenment to the reform of China's silver industry by borrowing the risks from the reform of the central and Eastern European countries' banking system.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F835.1
，
本文编号：2136978
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/guanlilunwen/bankxd/2136978.html
