中国城镇居民储蓄率的影响因素:1997～2008——基于省级动态面板数据的实证研究

发布时间：2018-07-31 18:43

【摘要】：本文在生命周期-持久收入模型与预防性储蓄理论的框架内,使用1997～2008年的省级面板数据,通过动态系统广义矩的估计方法对中国城镇居民储蓄率的影响因素进行了实证研究。研究显示:持久收入的增加和储蓄惯性显著提高了城镇居民的储蓄率,并且以上两方面因素可以对1997～2008年间城镇居民储蓄率增幅中的大部分进行解释;但与传统的LC-PIH模型不同,少儿抚养比与中国城镇居民储蓄率之间存在着显著的正相关关系。此外,社会保障事业的发展通过降低不确定性,从而显著降低了城镇居民储蓄率,而就业的市场化程度却产生了与之相反的影响。但公共支出的结构、通货膨胀率以及实际利率没有对城镇居民储蓄率产生显著的影响。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the provincial panel data from 1997 to 2008 are used in the framework of the life-cycle persistent income model and the precautionary saving theory. An empirical study on the factors affecting the savings rate of urban residents in China is carried out by using the estimation method of generalized moments of dynamic systems. The results show that: the increase of persistent income and the inertia of saving significantly improve the saving rate of urban residents, and the above two factors can explain most of the increase of saving rate of urban residents in 1997-2008; However, different from the traditional LC-PIH model, there is a significant positive correlation between the child-rearing ratio and the savings rate of urban residents in China. In addition, the development of social security has significantly reduced the savings rate of urban residents by reducing uncertainty, while the degree of marketization of employment has the opposite effect. However, the structure of public expenditure, inflation rate and real interest rate have no significant effect on the saving rate of urban residents.
【作者单位】：南京大学经济学院;南京农业大学公共管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金“增强自主创新能力提升经济增长质量研究”(71073076) 国家社科基金重大招标项目“贯彻落实科学发展观与加快转变经济发展方式研究”(07&ZD009)资助
【分类号】：F832.22;F224

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