中国商业银行盈利能力的影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-08-02 08:16

【摘要】：在复杂多变的经济环境下，，我国银行业既面临着严峻的挑战，也迎来了机遇。如何应对挑战、把握机遇、全面提升我国银行的盈利能力，促进核心竞争力形成，是摆在银行自身及监管层面前的紧迫问题。盈利能力作为银行的核心能力，直接关系到银行抵御风险和充实资本的能力，因此增强盈利能力是银行提高竞争力的关键和持续稳定发展的基石，开展中国商业行盈利能力的研究具有深刻的意义。基于此，本文在综合了国内外大量文献的研究成果，首先将影响银行盈利的因素分为内部环境和外部环境两个方面，采用面板广义矩估计方法对1997-2010年中国144家商业银行进行了实证分析。其中影响银行盈利能力的内部因素主要有：风险类因素、银行运营因素及其他因素；影响银行盈利能力的外部因素有市场结构和宏观经济影响因素。在上述因素中，选取具有代表性的指标作为解释变量，使用资产收益率（ROA）、资本收益率（ROE）、银行总收入和拨备前收益率这四个指标来测度银行的盈利水平。其次分析了我国商业银行的盈利结构对其盈利能力的影响，使用银行非利息收入占比为体现银行中间业务水平的测度指标，加入体现银行融资结构的控制变量，结合银行特质变量和宏观经济变量，考察银行非利息收入占比对银行资产收益率（ROA）的影响机制。最后对实证结果进行深入的剖析总结。研究表明： ①商业银行的盈利能力除了与银行特征性质有关，还与金融市场结构和宏观经济变量息息相关。 ②银行风险因素中不良贷款率、坏账存量和测度破产概率的Z-Score对中国银行业的盈利能力有显著负影响 ③效率高的银行，利润水平也较高；银行规模与银行盈利能力存在正相关关系。 ④规模大、分布广、市场影响力高的银行可以凭借规模优势降低成本获取更高利润； ⑤GDP增长率、通货膨胀率和存贷款基准利差等外部宏观环境也会显著影响商业银行盈利水平。真实GDP的高增长率和通胀率在一定程度内都有利于中国银行业盈利能力的增强；存贷款基准利率差越大，银行获得的利润越多；但利率波动率对盈利负相关。 ⑥银行非利息收入占比的提高会增加银行的资产收益率水平，银行非存款融资占比也可以提升银行的盈利水平。并且银行非利息收入业务主要受银行内部特征变量影响，其中银行规模大、权益资产比高的银行，其非利息收入占比往往较高。
[Abstract]:In the complex and changeable economic environment, China's banking industry is facing severe challenges, but also ushered in opportunities. How to deal with the challenge, seize the opportunity, improve the profitability of Chinese banks and promote the formation of core competitiveness is an urgent problem in front of the banks themselves and the supervision level. As the core competence of banks, profitability is directly related to the ability of banks to resist risks and replenish capital. Therefore, enhancing profitability is the key to enhance competitiveness of banks and the cornerstone of sustainable and stable development. It is of great significance to carry out the research on the profitability of Chinese commercial banks. Based on this, this paper synthesizes the research results of a large number of literatures at home and abroad. Firstly, the factors that affect bank earnings are divided into two aspects: internal environment and external environment. An empirical analysis of 144 commercial banks in China from 1997 to 2010 is carried out by using the panel generalized moment estimation method. Among them, the internal factors that affect the profitability of banks are: risk factors, operational factors and other factors, and the external factors that affect the profitability of banks are market structure and macroeconomic factors. Among the above factors, the representative index is chosen as the explanatory variable, and the total income of (ROE), bank and the rate of return before reserve are used to measure the profit level of the bank. Secondly, it analyzes the influence of commercial banks' profit structure on their profitability. Using the proportion of non-interest income of banks as the measure index to reflect the level of intermediate business of banks, we add the control variables that reflect the financing structure of banks. Combined with bank trait variables and macroeconomic variables, this paper investigates the influence mechanism of bank non-interest income ratio on bank asset return rate (ROA). Finally, the empirical results of in-depth analysis and summary. The results show that: (1) the profitability of commercial banks is closely related to the structure of the financial market and macroeconomic variables in addition to the characteristics of the banks. (2) the non-performing loan ratio in the risk factors of banks, The amount of bad debts and Z-Score, which measure the probability of bankruptcy, have a significant negative effect on the profitability of Chinese banks. There is a positive correlation between bank size and bank profitability. 4 Banks with large scale, wide distribution and high market influence can reduce costs and gain higher profits by virtue of scale advantage. The external macro environment, such as inflation rate and benchmark spread of deposit and loan, will also significantly affect the profit level of commercial banks. The high growth rate and inflation rate of real GDP are beneficial to the profitability of China's banking industry to some extent, the bigger the difference between deposit and loan benchmark rates, the more profit banks get. However, interest rate volatility is negatively related to profitability. 6 the increase in the proportion of non-interest income of banks will increase the level of return on assets of banks, and the proportion of non-deposit financing can also improve the profitability of banks. And the non-interest income business of the bank is mainly influenced by the internal characteristic variables of the bank, in which the bank with large scale and high equity and assets ratio often has a higher proportion of non-interest income.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.33

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