人民币汇率对长三角贸易结构影响的研究
发布时间：2018-08-05 20:36
【摘要】：改革开放后,中国经济不断融入到世界经济的发展中,与国际间的联系越来越紧密。中国的对外贸易的快速发展,提升了我国在国际上的贸易地位,中国已经成为了全球贸易大国。长三角作为我国对外贸易的第一大经济区,是亚太经济的重要门户和全球重要的贸易制造产地。长三角贸易的初期,凭借其优越的地理位置、雄厚的资金支持和低廉的劳动力成本,对外贸易迅速发展,且其产品在国际市场上极具竞争力,使长三角的进出口总额常年雄踞全国贸易之首。但是近几年来,随着劳动力成本上升、环境污染等问题的出现,长三角的对外贸易受到了诸多的挑战。长三角地区落后的产业结构和贸易结构也在很大程度上阻碍了贸易的发展。长期处于产业链底端的贸易结构,技术含量过低的贸易产品,过度集中的贸易区域结构不仅在逐渐减少长三角的贸易利润,也潜藏着诸多的经济风险。所以推动长三角贸易结构优化升级,促进贸易结构合理发展是长三角未来对外贸易发展的重中之重。 近年来,随着人民币汇率制度不断完善,人民币经历了一系列的升值过程,人民币汇率制度的选择和转变贸易增长方式成为了经济发展的热点。人民币汇率的变动一方面对国内外经济带来了波动,另一方面也对长三角的对外贸易和贸易结构的发展产生重大的影响。本文立足长三角经济贸易发展的实际情况和现实挑战,研究人民币汇率及其他控制变量的变化对长三角贸易结构变化之间的影响。首先介绍了贸易结构的相关概念和相关汇率对贸易结构影响的文献综述,为全文奠定了基础。然后,本文将理论和实际数据相结合直观地整理分析了长三角20多年以来的对外贸易和各种贸易结构的发展、现状和存在的问题,以及汇率对贸易结构影响的传导机制。在实际分析的基础上,本文选择人民币实际有效汇率指数作为解释变量,控制变量包括GDP、FDI、固定资产投资和收入水平,分别就其对长三角的贸易商品结构和贸易方式结构以及贸易区域结构的影响进行了实证检验,探讨人民币汇率以及其他变量对长三角贸易结构的影响,最后的研究表明,汇率与长三角的贸易结构存在着长期的协整关系,伴随着人民币的升值,长三角的贸易结构均得到了改善,具体表现为：随着人民币升值,长三角的低端贸易产品出口受到遏制,处于产业链低端的加工贸易出口减少,过于集中的贸易区域结构也得到了缓解。最后本文在实证分析的基础上对长三角的贸易结构优化升级提出了相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has been integrated into the development of the world economy and has become more and more closely connected with the international community. With the rapid development of China's foreign trade, China has become a major trading country in the world. The Yangtze River Delta, as the largest economic zone in China's foreign trade, is an important gateway to Asia-Pacific economy and an important trade and manufacturing area in the world. In the early days of the Yangtze River Delta trade, with its superior geographical position, abundant financial support and low labor cost, foreign trade developed rapidly, and its products were very competitive in the international market. So that the Yangtze River Delta imports and exports of the total number of year-round ranking of the first national trade. However, in recent years, with the rising of labor cost and environmental pollution, the foreign trade of Yangtze River Delta has been challenged. The backward industrial structure and trade structure of Yangtze River Delta also hinder the development of trade to a great extent. The trade structure at the bottom of the industrial chain for a long time, the trade products with too low technology content and the over-concentrated trade regional structure are not only gradually reducing the trade profits of the Yangtze River Delta, but also lurking a lot of economic risks. Therefore, promoting the optimization and upgrading of the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta and promoting the rational development of the trade structure are the most important aspects of the future development of foreign trade in the Yangtze River Delta. In recent years, with the continuous improvement of RMB exchange rate system, RMB has experienced a series of appreciation process. The choice of RMB exchange rate system and the transformation of trade growth mode have become the hot spot of economic development. On the one hand, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate brings fluctuation to the domestic and foreign economy, on the other hand, it has a great influence on the development of foreign trade and trade structure in the Yangtze River Delta. Based on the actual situation and practical challenges of the development of economic and trade in the Yangtze River Delta, this paper studies the influence of the change of RMB exchange rate and other control variables on the change of the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta. Firstly, this paper introduces the related concepts of trade structure and the literature review on the influence of exchange rate on trade structure, which lays a foundation for the full text. Then, this paper analyzes the development of foreign trade and various trade structures in the Yangtze River Delta in the past 20 years, the present situation and the existing problems, as well as the transmission mechanism of the exchange rate's influence on the trade structure. On the basis of the actual analysis, this paper chooses the real effective exchange rate index of RMB as the explanatory variable. The control variables include GDP FDI, fixed asset investment and income level. The impact of RMB exchange rate and other variables on the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta is tested by empirical analysis of its impact on the trade commodity structure, trade mode structure and trade regional structure of the Yangtze River Delta. Finally, the research shows that the RMB exchange rate and other variables affect the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta. There is a long-term cointegration relationship between the exchange rate and the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta. With the appreciation of RMB, the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta has been improved. The export of low-end trade products in the Yangtze River Delta is restrained, the export of processing trade at the low end of the industrial chain is reduced, and the regional structure of over-concentrated trade is alleviated. Finally, on the basis of empirical analysis, this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations on the optimization and upgrading of the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.8
本文编号：2166948
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has been integrated into the development of the world economy and has become more and more closely connected with the international community. With the rapid development of China's foreign trade, China has become a major trading country in the world. The Yangtze River Delta, as the largest economic zone in China's foreign trade, is an important gateway to Asia-Pacific economy and an important trade and manufacturing area in the world. In the early days of the Yangtze River Delta trade, with its superior geographical position, abundant financial support and low labor cost, foreign trade developed rapidly, and its products were very competitive in the international market. So that the Yangtze River Delta imports and exports of the total number of year-round ranking of the first national trade. However, in recent years, with the rising of labor cost and environmental pollution, the foreign trade of Yangtze River Delta has been challenged. The backward industrial structure and trade structure of Yangtze River Delta also hinder the development of trade to a great extent. The trade structure at the bottom of the industrial chain for a long time, the trade products with too low technology content and the over-concentrated trade regional structure are not only gradually reducing the trade profits of the Yangtze River Delta, but also lurking a lot of economic risks. Therefore, promoting the optimization and upgrading of the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta and promoting the rational development of the trade structure are the most important aspects of the future development of foreign trade in the Yangtze River Delta. In recent years, with the continuous improvement of RMB exchange rate system, RMB has experienced a series of appreciation process. The choice of RMB exchange rate system and the transformation of trade growth mode have become the hot spot of economic development. On the one hand, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate brings fluctuation to the domestic and foreign economy, on the other hand, it has a great influence on the development of foreign trade and trade structure in the Yangtze River Delta. Based on the actual situation and practical challenges of the development of economic and trade in the Yangtze River Delta, this paper studies the influence of the change of RMB exchange rate and other control variables on the change of the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta. Firstly, this paper introduces the related concepts of trade structure and the literature review on the influence of exchange rate on trade structure, which lays a foundation for the full text. Then, this paper analyzes the development of foreign trade and various trade structures in the Yangtze River Delta in the past 20 years, the present situation and the existing problems, as well as the transmission mechanism of the exchange rate's influence on the trade structure. On the basis of the actual analysis, this paper chooses the real effective exchange rate index of RMB as the explanatory variable. The control variables include GDP FDI, fixed asset investment and income level. The impact of RMB exchange rate and other variables on the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta is tested by empirical analysis of its impact on the trade commodity structure, trade mode structure and trade regional structure of the Yangtze River Delta. Finally, the research shows that the RMB exchange rate and other variables affect the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta. There is a long-term cointegration relationship between the exchange rate and the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta. With the appreciation of RMB, the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta has been improved. The export of low-end trade products in the Yangtze River Delta is restrained, the export of processing trade at the low end of the industrial chain is reduced, and the regional structure of over-concentrated trade is alleviated. Finally, on the basis of empirical analysis, this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations on the optimization and upgrading of the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.8
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