相对劳动生产率与工资增长率对人民币实际汇率的联动关系研究
发布时间：2018-08-07 13:55
【摘要】：贸易顺差的持续扩大,是我国经济发展过程中存在的一个不平衡不可持续的状况。我认为,造成中国巨大的外贸顺差的原因,在于生产要素价格的扭曲,而非人民币汇率低估。长期以来,我国劳动力、资源、土地、资本等生产要素价格处于较低水平,造成了我国出口产品生产成本较低,出口贸易部门膨胀,贸易顺差加剧,人民币升值压力巨大。为了调整这种内外不平衡的状况,我国政府及时调整经济发展模式,提出了转方式,调结构,扩内需的经济发展战略。这种战略的成功实施,关键在于要素价格改革。完善我国社保体系,改善劳动力的市场供求机制,提高劳动者的收入,提高资源的价格,提高环境污染的成本,这是要素价格改革的具体措施,有利于扩大我国内需,促使企业进行生产技术改革,改变以前的高耗能、高污染的粗放式生产方式。 劳动力是生产要素的一个重要组成部分,工资水平是生产要素价格的重要方面。随着我国一系列的调整措施,我国的工资水平近年来呈现了快速提高的趋势,这种变化趋势对于人民币汇率的变动产生一系列的影响,从而会对我国的外贸出口形势产生影响。那么,工资水平的调整,对我国汇率影响的具体机制是什么?本文带着这个问题,对“巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应”理论进行深入研究,并验证其在中国的适用性。在论证中国的现实情况后,对B-S效应模型进行修正,打破了原来模型中的工资均等化的假设,分析了各个部门间的工资的差异,同时分析这种差异对我国实际汇率产生的影响。本文收集我国的20年的数据,定量分析劳动力要素价格对实际汇率波动的影响。改进后的模型与实证分析均表明我国可贸易部门工资水平的提高,会导致实际汇率贬值,而非贸易部门的工资变动对汇率的效应则恰好与前者相反。这样的结论也告诉我们,可通过大幅提高我国的可贸易部门工资水平来减轻人民币目前所面临的升值压力,同时为我国外贸企业转型提供缓冲期,从而通过运用要素价格改革的措施,来实现调结构、转方式、扩内需的战略转型。
[Abstract]:The continuous expansion of trade surplus is an unbalanced and unsustainable situation in the process of economic development in China. I think the reason for China's huge foreign trade surplus is the distortion of factor prices, not the undervaluation of the yuan. For a long time, the price of labor, resources, land, capital and other factors of production in our country is at a low level, which causes the low production cost of export products, the expansion of export trade sector, the intensification of trade surplus, and the pressure of RMB appreciation. In order to adjust this situation of internal and external imbalance, our government adjusts the mode of economic development in time, and puts forward the economic development strategy of changing mode, adjusting structure and expanding domestic demand. The key to successful implementation of this strategy is factor price reform. Perfecting our social security system, improving the mechanism of labor market supply and demand, raising workers' income, raising the price of resources, and raising the cost of environmental pollution are concrete measures for the reform of factor prices, which is conducive to expanding domestic demand in our country. Urge enterprises to reform production technology and change the former extensive production mode of high energy consumption and high pollution. Labor force is an important part of factor of production and wage level is an important aspect of factor price of production. With a series of adjustment measures in our country, the wage level of our country has been increasing rapidly in recent years. This trend has a series of effects on the change of RMB exchange rate, which will have an impact on the situation of foreign trade and export of our country. So, what is the specific mechanism of the adjustment of wage level on the exchange rate of our country? With this problem, the theory of Barassa-Samuelson effect is studied in depth, and its applicability in China is verified. After demonstrating the reality of China, the B-S effect model is revised, which breaks the hypothesis of wage equalization in the original model, analyzes the wage difference among different departments and analyzes the influence of this difference on the real exchange rate of our country. This paper collects the data of 20 years in China to quantitatively analyze the effect of labor factor price on the fluctuation of real exchange rate. The improved model and empirical analysis show that the increase of wage level in tradable sector will lead to the depreciation of real exchange rate, while the effect of wage change in non-trade sector on the exchange rate is just the opposite. This conclusion also tells us that the appreciation pressure faced by the RMB can be alleviated by substantially increasing the wage level of the tradable sector in China, and at the same time providing a buffer period for the transformation of our foreign trade enterprises. Therefore, through the measures of factor price reform, the strategic transformation of adjusting structure, changing mode and expanding domestic demand is realized.
【学位授予单位】：中国政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F249.2;F832.6
本文编号：2170230
[Abstract]:The continuous expansion of trade surplus is an unbalanced and unsustainable situation in the process of economic development in China. I think the reason for China's huge foreign trade surplus is the distortion of factor prices, not the undervaluation of the yuan. For a long time, the price of labor, resources, land, capital and other factors of production in our country is at a low level, which causes the low production cost of export products, the expansion of export trade sector, the intensification of trade surplus, and the pressure of RMB appreciation. In order to adjust this situation of internal and external imbalance, our government adjusts the mode of economic development in time, and puts forward the economic development strategy of changing mode, adjusting structure and expanding domestic demand. The key to successful implementation of this strategy is factor price reform. Perfecting our social security system, improving the mechanism of labor market supply and demand, raising workers' income, raising the price of resources, and raising the cost of environmental pollution are concrete measures for the reform of factor prices, which is conducive to expanding domestic demand in our country. Urge enterprises to reform production technology and change the former extensive production mode of high energy consumption and high pollution. Labor force is an important part of factor of production and wage level is an important aspect of factor price of production. With a series of adjustment measures in our country, the wage level of our country has been increasing rapidly in recent years. This trend has a series of effects on the change of RMB exchange rate, which will have an impact on the situation of foreign trade and export of our country. So, what is the specific mechanism of the adjustment of wage level on the exchange rate of our country? With this problem, the theory of Barassa-Samuelson effect is studied in depth, and its applicability in China is verified. After demonstrating the reality of China, the B-S effect model is revised, which breaks the hypothesis of wage equalization in the original model, analyzes the wage difference among different departments and analyzes the influence of this difference on the real exchange rate of our country. This paper collects the data of 20 years in China to quantitatively analyze the effect of labor factor price on the fluctuation of real exchange rate. The improved model and empirical analysis show that the increase of wage level in tradable sector will lead to the depreciation of real exchange rate, while the effect of wage change in non-trade sector on the exchange rate is just the opposite. This conclusion also tells us that the appreciation pressure faced by the RMB can be alleviated by substantially increasing the wage level of the tradable sector in China, and at the same time providing a buffer period for the transformation of our foreign trade enterprises. Therefore, through the measures of factor price reform, the strategic transformation of adjusting structure, changing mode and expanding domestic demand is realized.
【学位授予单位】：中国政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F249.2;F832.6
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