媒体舆论、公众预期与通货膨胀

发布时间：2018-08-18 15:52

【摘要】：本文首次从媒体舆论视角考察公众预期形成机制及其对通货膨胀的影响。文章根据发行量排名、影响力和覆盖范围选取媒体库并计算楣关媒体报道的量化指标,通过调查数据获得现实中公众对未来的通胀预期,进而检验媒体舆论是否对公众预期通胀率具有显著影响。文章还进一步构建了用以捕捉媒体舆论、公众预期和现实通胀率的动态模型系统,用以考察三者的动态互动机制。研究结果表明,媒体舆论显著驱动公众预期,单份报刊每增加1篇关于物价上涨的相关报道,公众预期通胀率会上升0.1~0.15%,而且我国公众的通胀预期粘性程度较高。另外,媒体舆论与公众预期以及公众预期与现实通胀率分别具有显著的双向互动关系。因此,正确引导媒体舆论、减少负面情绪报道、深化新闻媒体"走转改"活动对于稳定国内通胀预期进而平抑通货膨胀具有重大意义。
[Abstract]:This paper, for the first time, examines the formation mechanism of public expectation and its influence on inflation from the perspective of media opinion. According to the ranking of circulation, influence and coverage, the article selects the media library and calculates the quantitative indicators of media coverage, and obtains real public expectations of future inflation through the survey data. And then test whether the media opinion has a significant impact on the expected inflation rate of the public. Furthermore, a dynamic model system for capturing media opinion, public expectation and real inflation rate is constructed to examine the dynamic interaction mechanism among them. The results show that public opinion significantly drives public expectations. For every additional report on price rise in a single newspaper, the inflation rate of public expectations will rise by 0.1 to 0.15, and the viscosity of inflation expectations in China is relatively high. In addition, media opinion and public expectations and real inflation have significant two-way interaction. Therefore, it is of great significance to correctly guide the media public opinion, reduce negative emotional reports and deepen the news media "step by step reform" activities to stabilize domestic inflation expectations and then stabilize inflation.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学财政金融学院中国财政金融政策研究中心;清华大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学研究基金项目(批准号:12AZD058) 中国金融四十人青年论坛资助
【分类号】：G206;F822.5

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