中国消费金融发展对居民消费需求影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-09-01 05:43

【摘要】：随着经济全球化进程的不断加快，2007年由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融海啸给世界经济带来了巨大的冲击，世界各国都逐渐意识到消费金融对于本国经济发展的重要作用。在我国经济结构调整和经济发展方式转变的背景下，消费作为促进经济增长的有效手段和途径，在整个国民经济发展中的地位和作用日益凸显。消费金融可以在一定程度上满足消费者资金融通的需要，起到刺激国内消费需求进而带动我国经济可持续发展的目的。在我国，消费金融仍是一片新兴的研究领域，回顾以往对消费金融的研究，主要是从消费金融的概念和范畴或微观层面上消费者个人和家庭的消费金融状况进行探讨，，但从宏观角度讲，到底为什么要发展消费金融业务，消费金融的发展能否为我国经济的发展带来切实的利益，都有待于我们进一步去深入地探讨。基于此，本文创新性地选取我国消费金融发展状况与居民消费需求之间的关系作为研究的切入点。本文首先对国内外消费金融的研究现状进行了评述，梳理了相关研究的基础理论，随后从五个方面对我国消费金融发展的现状进行阐述，并分别从人口结构、家庭生命周期、社会保障、消费者偏好和宏观经济政策等方面定性分析了消费金融的影响因素。本文选取1997—2011年消费信贷余额和居民消费水平的数据作为衡量指标，构建了时间序列自回归模型，并依次运用单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验对回归模型进行了验证。通过实证分析发现，消费信贷余额与居民消费水平之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系，并得出消费金融发展能够在一定程度上带动居民消费水平提高这一重要结论，为消费金融在我国的发展提供了有力的理论支持。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of the process of economic globalization, the global financial tsunami triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007 has brought a tremendous impact to the world economy. All countries in the world have gradually realized the important role of consumer finance in their economic development. Under the background of the adjustment of economic structure and the transformation of economic development mode, consumption, as an effective means and means to promote economic growth, is playing an increasingly important role in the development of the whole national economy. Consumer finance can meet the needs of consumer finance to a certain extent and stimulate domestic consumption demand and promote the sustainable development of our economy. In China, consumer finance is still a new research field. Reviewing the previous research on consumer finance, mainly from the concept and scope of consumer finance or micro-level consumer financial situation of consumers and households. But from the macro point of view, why should we develop consumer finance business, and whether the development of consumer finance can bring real benefits to the development of our country's economy needs to be further discussed. Based on this, this paper innovatively selects the relationship between the development of consumer finance and the consumption demand of residents as the starting point. This paper first reviews the current research situation of consumer finance at home and abroad, combs the basic theory of related research, then expounds the current situation of consumer finance development in China from five aspects, and respectively from the population structure, family life cycle. Social security, consumer preference and macroeconomic policy are analyzed qualitatively. In this paper, the data of the balance of consumer credit and the consumption level of residents from 1997 to 2011 are selected as indicators, and the time series autoregressive model is constructed, and the unit root test is used in turn. Cointegration test and Granger causality test are used to verify the regression model. Through the empirical analysis, it is found that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the balance of consumer credit and the consumption level of residents, and it is concluded that the development of consumer finance can promote the improvement of consumption level to a certain extent. For the development of consumer finance in China to provide a strong theoretical support.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.4;F126.1

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