中国国际收支与通货膨胀的相关性研究

发布时间：2018-09-03 14:14

【摘要】：随着我国对外开放步伐的迈进,我国的国际贸易经常账户对外开放程度已经达到了较高的水平,而且我国的资本账户也逐步对外开放,同时也意味着,在原有开放程度较低的封闭经济条件下,所提出的宏观经济理论和政策已经不能完全解释和改善现在的经济现象,因此本文将国际收支和通货膨胀作为研究的主体,主要从国际收支影响通货膨胀的角度,分别从经常账户、资本和金融账户以及储备账户三个具体路径研究其影响程度。本文先从理论上系统分析国际收支平衡表的各个方面对通货膨胀的传递途径,然后采用1997年至2013年的月度数据建立多因素向量自回归模型,实证分析各个途径。结果显示：经常账户传导路径中,国际大宗商品价格的波动能显著的影响国内物价；资本金融账户传导路径中,外商直接投资的增加可以提高国民生产总值、促进房地产市场的发展,进而带动物价水平的上升,但是影响较小；储备账户传导路径中,外汇储备资产的变动不能显著地影响基础货币的变动进而影响物价水平。最后,根据研究结论,提出相对应的政策建议,有助于改善我国国际收支和通货膨胀状况。本文的主要创新点：第一,在本文的理论研究中,考虑对国际大宗商品在价格传导机制中的影响以及考虑中央银行在货币传导中的影响；第二,提出了国际收支影响通货膨胀完善全面的路径体系,并且对不同影响路径之间进行比较；第三,数据选取月度数据,更清晰的反映了指标的短期波动。
[Abstract]:With the development of our country's opening to the outside world, China's current account of international trade has reached a higher level, and our capital account has gradually opened to the outside world, which also means that, Under the condition of closed economy with low opening degree, the macroeconomic theory and policy put forward can not completely explain and improve the present economic phenomenon, so this paper regards the balance of payments and inflation as the main body of study. From the point of view of the impact of balance of payments on inflation, this paper studies the influence degree of current account, capital account and financial account and reserve account respectively. In this paper, we first systematically analyze the transmission of inflation in all aspects of the balance of payments in theory, and then use the monthly data from 1997 to 2013 to establish a multi-factor vector autoregressive model, and analyze each way empirically. The results show that in the current account transmission path, the fluctuation of international commodity prices can significantly affect domestic prices, while in the capital financial account transmission path, the increase of foreign direct investment can increase the gross national product (GNP). Promote the development of the real estate market, and then lead to the rise of the price level, but the impact is small; in the transmission path of reserve account, the change of foreign exchange reserve assets can not significantly affect the change of the base currency and then the price level. Finally, according to the conclusions of the study, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward, which will help to improve the balance of payments and inflation in China. The main innovations of this paper are as follows: first, in the theoretical research of this paper, we consider the influence of international commodities in price transmission mechanism and the influence of central bank in monetary transmission. This paper puts forward a perfect and comprehensive path system of the impact of balance of payments on inflation, and compares the different impact paths. Thirdly, the data select monthly data, more clearly reflect the short-term fluctuations of indicators.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.5;F832.6

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