货币政策的区域效应——来自房地产市场的证据

发布时间：2018-09-10 12:39

【摘要】：内部经济的异质性决定了货币政策存在区域效应。无论从房地产需求、房地产供给还是房地产的金融支持来看,房地产市场都具有显著的异质性,这强化了货币政策在房地产市场的区域效应。本文分别从房地产需求和供给两个层面考察货币政策在房地产市场的传导效应及其区域差异,结果表明:(1)从房地产需求来看,利率必须到达一定基点后才能有效抑制房地产需求,并且东部地区较中西部地区效果更好;(2)从房地产供给来看,全国层面和东部地区当期利率的提高能够在一定程度上抑制土地购置面积。房地产开发投资对利率变化敏感,其中在全国层面和东部地区更显著;(3)商品房竣工面积对利率变化不是十分敏感,而受银行信贷规模影响十分显著,且中西部地区受银行信贷规模影响最明显。
[Abstract]:The heterogeneity of internal economy determines the regional effect of monetary policy. In terms of real estate demand, real estate supply and financial support of real estate, the real estate market has remarkable heterogeneity, which strengthens the regional effect of monetary policy in real estate market. This paper examines the conduction effect of monetary policy in the real estate market and its regional differences from the two aspects of real estate demand and supply. The results show that: (1) from the point of view of real estate demand, Interest rates must reach a certain basis point in order to effectively curb real estate demand, and the eastern region is better than the central and western regions; (2) from the point of view of real estate supply, The increase in current interest rates at the national level and in the eastern part of the country can restrain land acquisition to a certain extent. Investment in real estate development is sensitive to interest rate changes, especially at the national level and in the eastern part of the country. (3) the completed area of commercial housing is not very sensitive to the change of interest rate, but is significantly affected by the scale of bank credit. And the central and western regions by the scale of bank credit the most obvious impact.
【作者单位】：清华大学房地产研究所;安徽工业大学经济学院;西南财经大学消费经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目青年项目(09CJY032);国家社会科学基金重大招标项目(09&ZD042) 国家自然科学基金面上项目(70873072) 博士后基金面上项目(20110490433)的资助
【分类号】：F293.3;F822.0;F224

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