人民币国际化成本收益分析
发布时间：2018-09-18 10:09
【摘要】：2008年金融危机爆发以来，中国的经济在危机中受到了一定程度上的影响。中国的外汇储备中有60%都是美元，美元的贬值使我国的外汇储备急剧缩水。同时，中国也采取了一些积极的措施应对危机，进行了人民币贸易结算试点并且积极开展与世界各国的货币互换合作，使世界各国提升了对中国的信心。可以说金融危机也为人民币国际化提供了一定的契机。在这样的背景下，人民币国际化是非常有必要的，而且我国也已经具备了一些人民币国际化所需的条件。而人民币国际化具有一定的成本和收益，为了便于比较，本文对人民币国际化成本收益问题进行了研究。 首先，是文献综述部分。主要介绍了货币国际化的定义、成本、收益以及人民币国际化的成本和收益等方面的相关文献。接着对人民币国际化的现状进行了定性和定量的分析。其次，文章以人民币国际化的成本和收益为两大主线，在方法上，对人民币国际化的成本和收益均进行了定性和定量分析。在内容上，将人民币国际化的成本概括为：陷入“三元悖论”；面临“特里芬难题”；人民币国际化逆转风险；货币替代风险；国内金融、经济的稳定受到威胁等。而人民币国际化的收益则划分为可计量的与不可计量的收益两部分。其中，可计量的收益主要包括国际铸币税收益以及运用境外人民币储备资产投资产生的金融性净收益，根据本文的计算，2011年我们实际获得的国际铸币税收益为837.34亿元，按照进口增长率保持一定的比率不变，，可以推算出到2020年人民币国际化的实际收益为13034.4亿元，收入相当可观。不可计量的收益主要包括：提升国际地位；获得外汇储备收益；完善国际货币体系；促进金融市场的发展以及促进国际贸易和对外投资等。最后，根据人民币国际化的成本与收益的比较，认为从总体来说，人民币国际化的收益大于成本。并提出了一些推进人民币国际化进程的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the financial crisis broke out in 2008, China's economy has been affected to a certain extent. Sixty percent of China's foreign exchange reserves are in dollars, and the depreciation of the dollar sharply shrinks China's foreign exchange reserves. At the same time, China has also taken some positive measures to deal with the crisis, conducted RMB trade settlement pilot and actively carried out currency swap cooperation with other countries in the world, which has boosted the confidence of all countries in the world. It can be said that the financial crisis also provides a certain opportunity for the internationalization of RMB. Against this background, RMB internationalization is very necessary, and China already has some necessary conditions for RMB internationalization. But RMB internationalization has certain costs and benefits, in order to facilitate comparison, this paper studies the cost and benefit of RMB internationalization. First, the literature review part. This paper mainly introduces the definition of currency internationalization, the cost, benefit, and the cost and income of RMB internationalization. Then the current situation of RMB internationalization is analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. Secondly, taking the cost and income of RMB internationalization as the two main lines, the paper qualitatively and quantitatively analyzes the cost and benefit of RMB internationalization. In content, the cost of RMB internationalization is summarized as follows: falling into the "ternary paradox"; facing the "Triffin problem"; the risk of RMB internationalization reversal; the risk of currency substitution; the threat to the stability of domestic finance and economy. The income of RMB internationalization is divided into two parts: measurable income and non-measurable income. Among them, the measurable income mainly includes the international seigniorage income and the financial net income generated by the investment of RMB reserve assets abroad. According to the calculation of this paper, the actual international seigniorage income in 2011 is 83.734 billion yuan. According to the import growth rate, we can calculate that the real income of RMB internationalization by 2020 is 1.30344 trillion yuan, and the income is considerable. The non-quantifiable benefits mainly include: enhancing international status, obtaining foreign exchange reserve income, perfecting the international monetary system, promoting the development of financial market and promoting international trade and foreign investment. Finally, according to the comparison of the cost and income of RMB internationalization, it is concluded that the benefit of RMB internationalization is greater than the cost. And put forward some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the process of RMB internationalization.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6
本文编号：2247577
[Abstract]:Since the financial crisis broke out in 2008, China's economy has been affected to a certain extent. Sixty percent of China's foreign exchange reserves are in dollars, and the depreciation of the dollar sharply shrinks China's foreign exchange reserves. At the same time, China has also taken some positive measures to deal with the crisis, conducted RMB trade settlement pilot and actively carried out currency swap cooperation with other countries in the world, which has boosted the confidence of all countries in the world. It can be said that the financial crisis also provides a certain opportunity for the internationalization of RMB. Against this background, RMB internationalization is very necessary, and China already has some necessary conditions for RMB internationalization. But RMB internationalization has certain costs and benefits, in order to facilitate comparison, this paper studies the cost and benefit of RMB internationalization. First, the literature review part. This paper mainly introduces the definition of currency internationalization, the cost, benefit, and the cost and income of RMB internationalization. Then the current situation of RMB internationalization is analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. Secondly, taking the cost and income of RMB internationalization as the two main lines, the paper qualitatively and quantitatively analyzes the cost and benefit of RMB internationalization. In content, the cost of RMB internationalization is summarized as follows: falling into the "ternary paradox"; facing the "Triffin problem"; the risk of RMB internationalization reversal; the risk of currency substitution; the threat to the stability of domestic finance and economy. The income of RMB internationalization is divided into two parts: measurable income and non-measurable income. Among them, the measurable income mainly includes the international seigniorage income and the financial net income generated by the investment of RMB reserve assets abroad. According to the calculation of this paper, the actual international seigniorage income in 2011 is 83.734 billion yuan. According to the import growth rate, we can calculate that the real income of RMB internationalization by 2020 is 1.30344 trillion yuan, and the income is considerable. The non-quantifiable benefits mainly include: enhancing international status, obtaining foreign exchange reserve income, perfecting the international monetary system, promoting the development of financial market and promoting international trade and foreign investment. Finally, according to the comparison of the cost and income of RMB internationalization, it is concluded that the benefit of RMB internationalization is greater than the cost. And put forward some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the process of RMB internationalization.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6
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