基于数值模拟下的中国外汇储备潜在损失分析

发布时间：2018-10-23 12:41

【摘要】：外汇储备余额持续积累加剧了外汇储备资产潜在损失的进一步扩大。文章通过对中国外汇储备积累方式的分析,认为造成外汇储备损失的主要路径有三个:冲销债券的利息支付、国际短期资本的投机和人民币对美元汇率升值。在此基础上,文章数值模拟了不同路径下的外汇储备潜在损失,得出以下结论:一是人民币过快升值会加重我国外汇储备损失,应根据我国金融市场的发展状况,逐步改革汇率体系,令人民币更富弹性;二是改变中国外汇储备管理模式,从以往的被动型、防御型模式变成主动型、投资型模式,一方面逐步放松资本账户管制,允许个人和机构海外投资,另一方面加大中国的主权财富基金——中国投资公司的投资力度和规模,通过市场化手段获得更高收益。
[Abstract]:The continued accumulation of foreign exchange reserve balance exacerbated the further expansion of potential losses of foreign exchange reserve assets. Based on the analysis of China's foreign exchange reserve accumulation mode, the paper points out that there are three main ways to cause the loss of foreign exchange reserve: the interest payment of sterilizing bonds, the speculation of international short-term capital and the appreciation of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar. On this basis, the paper numerically simulates the potential losses of foreign exchange reserves under different paths, and draws the following conclusions: first, the rapid appreciation of RMB will aggravate the loss of foreign exchange reserves in China, which should be based on the development of our financial market. Gradually reform the exchange rate system to make the RMB more flexible; second, change the management mode of China's foreign exchange reserves from passive and defensive to active and investment-oriented mode. On the one hand, gradually relax capital account controls. Allowing individuals and institutions to invest abroad, on the other hand, increasing the investment and scale of China Investment Corporation, China's sovereign wealth fund, and achieving higher returns through market-oriented means.
【作者单位】：对外经济贸易大学保险学院;北京金融街投资(集团)有限公司金融研究部;
【分类号】：F832.6

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