信用卡的盈利能力与卡债危机的回避

发布时间：2018-11-20 17:38

【摘要】：银行的信用卡业务在消费金融方面具有两大优势：高额的利差与广大的消费群体。面对当前全球普遍的不景气,信用卡的获利模式深受国内许多发卡银行的喜好。本研究参考亚洲四小龙其中的韩国、香港地区及台湾地区过去曾经发生信用卡卡债危机的经验,来检视国内发卡银行是否可能发生类似的现象。基于信用卡所具有的信用扩张及虚拟经济的特性,本研究搜集国内发卡银行自2007至2011年间的半年度财务变量与本国宏观经济资料,辅以韩国、香港地区、台湾地区以及其他国家相关的经济数据与政策措施等,并分别运用标准化与逐步回归分析及文献分析法作为研究方法,得到以下的研究结果：首先,针对发卡银行的财务变量与国家的宏观变量进行分析,并分别以报酬率作为因变量得到之结果如下：信用卡业务占银行营收之比重与银行获利的出现并没有直接关系,即出现正负未定的结果。逾期信用贷款(毛)／信用贷款(毛)(即逾期信用贷款之比例)及不良贷款率二者皆与银行获利的出现没有直接关系。营业利益率也未出现异常变动的情况,其他如放款与存款比率、每股税前净利润、负债比率以及年底银行股票市值等四项财务比率变量,大致符合本研究之预期结果。此外,金融海啸事件则与资产／净值报酬率具有正向显著关系,亦即当发生全球金融海啸的时候,银行的资产／净值报酬率不但未受到影响,反而出现增高的情况。其次,韩国、香港地区及台湾地区对于信用卡问题的相关对策不全是治本的解决策略,许多仅是治标的急就章方案,也就是在政府当局未能推出更好的法令规章之前的应急对策,透过边做边学的方式来调适与修正,并希望从中找到较佳的处理方式。信用卡发卡银行的经营目标应兼顾利润与风险二者之间的平衡,但银行业者并未严格控管消费者(即持卡者)之信用质量,而将实体经济的务实运作型态逐渐带入泡沫化的虚拟经济,此时倘若经济景气逆转,政府采取紧缩措施,亦即当信用泡沫破裂时,则信用卡发卡银行就可能会发生危机。最后,关于中国是否会发生信用卡危机的问题,答案是“不会”。近二十年来,我国的经济表现证明这是有效的政府领导与管理模式,藉由出口贸易带动的经济增长,以及实施经济改革开放,我国的实力日益富强。单由外汇存底累积金额全球第一且遥遥领先其他国家的事实来看,中国即使发生经济危机,亦属“软着陆(soft landing)",属于可以适度调适与修正之层级。
[Abstract]:The bank's credit card business has two advantages in consumer finance: high interest rate difference and large consumer group. In the face of the current global recession, the profit model of credit card is favored by many domestic card issuing banks. This study looks at the past experience of credit card debt crisis in Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan, which are among the four Little Dragons in Asia, to examine whether a similar phenomenon may occur in card issuing banks in China. Based on the credit expansion and virtual economy characteristics of credit card, this study collects semi-annual financial variables and macroeconomic data of domestic credit card issuing banks from 2007 to 2011, supplemented by Korea and Hong Kong. The relevant economic data and policy measures in Taiwan and other countries are studied by using standardized and stepwise regression analysis and literature analysis, respectively. The following results are obtained: first of all, Based on the analysis of the financial variables of the card issuing bank and the macro variables of the country, the results are as follows: the proportion of the credit card business to the bank's revenue is not directly related to the appearance of the bank's profit. That is, there are positive and negative uncertain results. There is no direct relationship between overdue credit loan (gross) / credit loan (gross) (that is, the proportion of overdue credit loan) and non-performing loan ratio. Other financial ratio variables, such as loan-to-deposit ratio, net profit per share before tax, debt ratio and end-year bank stock market value, are generally consistent with the expected results of this study. In addition, the financial tsunami event has a significant positive relationship with the return on assets / net worth, that is, when the global financial tsunami occurs, the return rate of assets / net worth of banks will not be affected, but will increase. Secondly, the relevant countermeasures for credit card problems in South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan are not all strategies to solve the problem at the root of the problem. Many are just palliative solutions. That is, before the authorities fail to introduce better laws and regulations, they can adjust and amend by doing and learning, and hope to find a better way to deal with it. The business objectives of credit card issuing banks should be balanced between profit and risk, but the banks do not strictly control the credit quality of consumers (that is, credit card holders). The pragmatic operation of the real economy is gradually brought into the bubble fictitious economy, and if the economic climate is reversed, the government will take austerity measures, that is, when the credit bubble bursts, the credit card issuing bank may have a crisis. Finally, the answer to the question of whether there will be a credit card crisis in China is "no". In the past two decades, China's economic performance has proved that this is an effective mode of government leadership and management. Through export trade led economic growth and the implementation of economic reform and opening up, China's strength is increasingly rich and strong. Judging by the fact that the accumulated amount of foreign exchange deposits is the first in the world and far ahead of other countries, even if China has an economic crisis, it is also a "soft landing (soft landing)", which can be adjusted and revised moderately.
【学位授予单位】：南开大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.2

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