人民币汇率变动对中美贸易失衡影响问题的实证研究
发布时间：2019-01-29 04:43
【摘要】：近年来，，中美贸易失衡问题已成为影响中美关系发展最主要的因素之一，而人民币汇率是否作为中美贸易失衡的主要原因则更为学术界关注。迫于美国等发达国家的政治压力和经济手段，中国人民币汇率已持续8年连续升值，这种提供稳定升值预期的汇率变动是否真正能够解决中美贸易失衡问题更成为现阶段经济学研究中最受关注的问题。因此，对人民币汇率升值是否真正能够缓解中美贸易失衡问题，以及人民币升值对中美两国经济的实质性影响进行研究具有重要的现实和理论意义。 为从更深层次揭示人民币汇率升值与中美贸易以及中美经济之间的关系，本文从以下几个方面对该问题进行实证研究：其一，美国对华政治态度变化是否真正影响人民币汇率制度改革或对人民币升值是否存在因果关系。若存在必然联系甚至存在因果则证明人民币汇率对中美经济关系至关重要，已在某种程度上成为解决中美关系的桥梁；其二，人民币升值是否能够缓解或者解决中美贸易失衡问题。贸易失衡不利于任何国家的长久发展，必将损害国家利益。若人民币升值能够缓解或解决中美贸易失衡问题则应选择合理的升值途径；其三，人民币升值是否影响中国对外贸易发展。对外贸易是拉动中国经济增长的主要动力，选择合理的汇率升值方式对中国经济发展关系重大；其四，人民币升值与美国经济发展之间的关系。尽管中美贸易相互依存度较高，但人民币汇率变动是否对美国实体经济产生直接影响值得商榷。经过严谨的规范研究和实证分析，本文发现美国长期通过政治压力影响中国汇率，人民币汇率已经成为中美双边关系中重要谈判内容之一，但中美双边贸易不符合马歇尔勒纳条件，人民币升值在解决中美贸易失衡问题方面作用不显著。同时，中国作为贸易大国，人民币升值不利于中国对外贸易的长期发展，而且以美国劳动力就业为例进行分析后发现，人民币升值也不能解决美国就业问题。 中美贸易失衡有自身的内部原因，是国际产业分工和美国实行选择性对外贸易政策的结果。从长远看，人民币市场化改革是必然趋势，但应该综合考虑中国贸易环境和金融环境两方面内容，根据不同发展情况选择最适合中国的市场化改革道路。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the issue of Sino-US trade imbalance has become one of the most important factors affecting the development of Sino-US relations, and whether the RMB exchange rate is the main cause of Sino-US trade imbalance is more concerned by academic circles. Under the political pressure and economic means of the United States and other developed countries, China's RMB exchange rate has been continuously appreciated for eight consecutive years. Whether this exchange rate change, which provides a stable appreciation expectation, can really solve the trade imbalance between China and the United States has become the most concerned issue in the current economic research. Therefore, it is of great practical and theoretical significance to study whether the appreciation of RMB exchange rate can really alleviate the trade imbalance between China and the United States, and whether the real impact of RMB appreciation on the economies of China and the United States. In order to reveal the relationship between RMB exchange rate appreciation, Sino-US trade and Sino-US economy from a deeper level, this paper makes an empirical study on this issue from the following aspects: first, Whether the change of American political attitude towards China really affects the reform of RMB exchange rate regime or whether there is a causal relationship to RMB appreciation. If there is an inevitable connection or even cause and effect, it proves that the RMB exchange rate is very important to Sino-US economic relations, and has become a bridge to solve Sino-US relations to some extent. Second, whether the appreciation of the RMB can alleviate or solve the trade imbalance between China and the United States. Trade imbalance is not conducive to the long-term development of any country, and will certainly harm the national interests. If the appreciation of RMB can alleviate or solve the trade imbalance between China and the United States, it should choose a reasonable way of appreciation. Thirdly, whether the appreciation of RMB will affect the development of China's foreign trade. Foreign trade is the main driving force to stimulate China's economic growth, and choosing a reasonable way of exchange rate appreciation is of great importance to China's economic development. Fourth, the relationship between the appreciation of RMB and the economic development of the United States. Despite the high degree of trade interdependence between China and the United States, it is questionable whether the yuan's exchange rate movements have a direct impact on the U.S. real economy. Through rigorous normative research and empirical analysis, this paper finds that the United States has influenced China's exchange rate through political pressure for a long time, and the RMB exchange rate has become an important part of the negotiations between China and the United States. However, bilateral trade between China and the United States does not conform to Marshall Lerner's terms, and the appreciation of the yuan has not played a significant role in resolving the trade imbalance between China and the United States. At the same time, as a big trading country, the appreciation of RMB is not conducive to the long-term development of China's foreign trade. The trade imbalance between China and the United States has its own internal causes, which is the result of the division of international industries and the selective foreign trade policy of the United States. In the long run, the market-oriented reform of RMB is an inevitable trend, but we should consider the two aspects of China's trade environment and financial environment, and choose the most suitable market-oriented reform road according to different development conditions.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.7;F757.12;F832.6
本文编号：2417656
[Abstract]:In recent years, the issue of Sino-US trade imbalance has become one of the most important factors affecting the development of Sino-US relations, and whether the RMB exchange rate is the main cause of Sino-US trade imbalance is more concerned by academic circles. Under the political pressure and economic means of the United States and other developed countries, China's RMB exchange rate has been continuously appreciated for eight consecutive years. Whether this exchange rate change, which provides a stable appreciation expectation, can really solve the trade imbalance between China and the United States has become the most concerned issue in the current economic research. Therefore, it is of great practical and theoretical significance to study whether the appreciation of RMB exchange rate can really alleviate the trade imbalance between China and the United States, and whether the real impact of RMB appreciation on the economies of China and the United States. In order to reveal the relationship between RMB exchange rate appreciation, Sino-US trade and Sino-US economy from a deeper level, this paper makes an empirical study on this issue from the following aspects: first, Whether the change of American political attitude towards China really affects the reform of RMB exchange rate regime or whether there is a causal relationship to RMB appreciation. If there is an inevitable connection or even cause and effect, it proves that the RMB exchange rate is very important to Sino-US economic relations, and has become a bridge to solve Sino-US relations to some extent. Second, whether the appreciation of the RMB can alleviate or solve the trade imbalance between China and the United States. Trade imbalance is not conducive to the long-term development of any country, and will certainly harm the national interests. If the appreciation of RMB can alleviate or solve the trade imbalance between China and the United States, it should choose a reasonable way of appreciation. Thirdly, whether the appreciation of RMB will affect the development of China's foreign trade. Foreign trade is the main driving force to stimulate China's economic growth, and choosing a reasonable way of exchange rate appreciation is of great importance to China's economic development. Fourth, the relationship between the appreciation of RMB and the economic development of the United States. Despite the high degree of trade interdependence between China and the United States, it is questionable whether the yuan's exchange rate movements have a direct impact on the U.S. real economy. Through rigorous normative research and empirical analysis, this paper finds that the United States has influenced China's exchange rate through political pressure for a long time, and the RMB exchange rate has become an important part of the negotiations between China and the United States. However, bilateral trade between China and the United States does not conform to Marshall Lerner's terms, and the appreciation of the yuan has not played a significant role in resolving the trade imbalance between China and the United States. At the same time, as a big trading country, the appreciation of RMB is not conducive to the long-term development of China's foreign trade. The trade imbalance between China and the United States has its own internal causes, which is the result of the division of international industries and the selective foreign trade policy of the United States. In the long run, the market-oriented reform of RMB is an inevitable trend, but we should consider the two aspects of China's trade environment and financial environment, and choose the most suitable market-oriented reform road according to different development conditions.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.7;F757.12;F832.6
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