基于均衡汇率角度的人民币升值问题分析
发布时间：2019-02-16 00:24
【摘要】：在人民币不断升值的大背景下,关于人民币升值的合理性及临界点的探讨已成为热门话题。人民币汇率的合理性问题归根到底是实际汇率是否偏离均衡汇率的问题。在考虑中国转型经济特点和对基本经济因素进行分析后,建立了人民币均衡汇率模型,将估计出的均衡汇率与实际有效汇率进行比较分析,确认人民币确实存在一定的低估,但失调程度不大。因此对于人民币升值我们应保持在适度的范围内,而不应屈从于外在压力。在此基础上进一步提出了人民币汇率调整的方法建议。
[Abstract]:Under the background of RMB appreciation, the discussion on the rationality and critical point of RMB appreciation has become a hot topic. The rationality of RMB exchange rate is, in the final analysis, whether the real exchange rate deviates from the equilibrium exchange rate. After considering the characteristics of China's transition economy and analyzing the basic economic factors, this paper establishes the equilibrium exchange rate model of RMB, compares the estimated equilibrium exchange rate with the actual effective exchange rate, and confirms that the RMB is indeed undervalued. But the extent of the disorder is small. Therefore, we should keep the appreciation of RMB within a moderate range, and should not succumb to external pressure. On this basis, further put forward the RMB exchange rate adjustment method suggestions.
【作者单位】： 四川大学经济学院;四川大学公共管理学院;
【分类号】：F832.6
[Abstract]:Under the background of RMB appreciation, the discussion on the rationality and critical point of RMB appreciation has become a hot topic. The rationality of RMB exchange rate is, in the final analysis, whether the real exchange rate deviates from the equilibrium exchange rate. After considering the characteristics of China's transition economy and analyzing the basic economic factors, this paper establishes the equilibrium exchange rate model of RMB, compares the estimated equilibrium exchange rate with the actual effective exchange rate, and confirms that the RMB is indeed undervalued. But the extent of the disorder is small. Therefore, we should keep the appreciation of RMB within a moderate range, and should not succumb to external pressure. On this basis, further put forward the RMB exchange rate adjustment method suggestions.
【作者单位】： 四川大学经济学院;四川大学公共管理学院;
【分类号】：F832.6
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前2条
1 金中夏;论转轨时期均衡汇率形成机制[J];经济研究;1996年03期
2 窦祥胜,杨p，
本文编号：2423851
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/guanlilunwen/bankxd/2423851.html
