中国—东盟自由贸易区框架下人民币区域化影响因素分析

发布时间：2019-02-20 20:14

【摘要】：全球金融危机的爆发,显现了以美元为中心的现行国际货币体系的弊端,国际货币多元化是国际货币体系的发展方向。在传统的国际货币体系下,大多数发展中国家因缺少自己的货币锚而无力维持国内外经济的稳定。因此,对发展中国家来说提升发展中国家在国际货币体系中的地位,完善国际货币体系迫在眉睫。金融危机恢复期间,人民币稳定的购买力为稳定亚洲及东南亚经济起到了不可低估的贡献,这使得人民币国际化的呼声越发高涨。人民币实现区域化是国际化进程中的重要战略步骤,中国—东盟自由贸易区作为我国建立最早、进展最快、效果最实的自贸区,现阶段人民币在东盟地区实现区域化的条件日渐成熟。研究中国-东盟自由贸易区框架下的人民币区域化影响因素,对继续推动区域内或其他区域人民币区域化具有战略现实意义。本文从市场驱动及战略驱动角度,从中国经济实力、贸易发展情况、金融市场发展、人民币价值稳定、“一带一路”战略的实施以及亚投行的成立等方面分析了其对人民币区域化的影响,在分析各因素发展现状的基础上提出了进一步推进中国-东盟自由贸易区框架下人民币区域化的建议,得出结论：(1)我国经济实力的迅猛发展是实现区域化的前提条件,应继续转变经济发展模式,支撑本国经济的可持续增长；(2)我国与东盟贸易规模的不断的扩大及东盟国家对我国的贸易依存度的不断提升为人民币在东盟实现区域化奠定了坚实的基础,应继续完善贸易结构,扩大贸易规模；(3)贸易逆差对人民币区域化有推动作用,我国应扩大从东盟的贸易进口,扭转贸易顺差；(4)我国目前的贸易发展初见成效,但金融发展相对滞后,应该积极加快金融体系调整,继续发展新加坡人民币离岸金融中心、渐进有序开放资本账户、扩宽海外人民币的投融资渠道,为人民币在东盟区域化开拓渠道；(5)人民币对内币值稳定不足,通胀问题比较严重,应扩大内需,积极维持币值稳定,解决民生问题；(6)“一带一路”战略的推进和中国在亚投行话语权提升为人民币区域化提供了新的动力与保障。
[Abstract]:With the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the malpractice of the current international monetary system centered on the US dollar has been revealed, and the diversification of the international currency is the development direction of the international monetary system. Under the traditional international monetary system, most developing countries are unable to maintain the stability of their domestic and foreign economies due to the lack of their own currency anchor. Therefore, it is urgent for developing countries to improve their position in the international monetary system. During the recovery of the financial crisis, the stable purchasing power of the RMB played an important role in stabilizing the economies of Asia and Southeast Asia, which made the calls for the internationalization of the yuan more and more strong. The regionalization of RMB is an important strategic step in the process of internationalization. China-ASEAN Free Trade area (CAFTA) is the earliest, fastest and most effective free trade zone in China. At present, the condition of RMB regionalization in ASEAN area is maturing day by day. It is of strategic practical significance to study the influencing factors of RMB regionalization in the framework of China-ASEAN Free Trade area. From the angle of market driving and strategic driving, this paper discusses the economic strength, the development of trade, the development of financial market, and the stability of RMB value. The implementation of "Belt and Road" strategy and the establishment of the AIIB are analyzed in terms of its impact on the regionalization of the RMB. On the basis of analyzing the current situation of the development of various factors, this paper puts forward some suggestions for further promoting the regionalization of RMB under the framework of China-ASEAN Free Trade area, and draws the following conclusions: (1) the rapid development of China's economic strength is the prerequisite for realizing regionalization. We should continue to transform the pattern of economic development and support the sustainable growth of our economy; (2) the continuous expansion of trade scale between China and ASEAN and the increasing degree of trade dependence of ASEAN countries have laid a solid foundation for the RMB to realize regionalization in ASEAN, and should continue to perfect the trade structure and expand the scale of trade; (3) the trade deficit promotes the regionalization of RMB, China should enlarge the trade import from ASEAN and reverse the trade surplus; (4) China's current trade development is beginning to show results, but the financial development is relatively lagging behind. We should actively speed up the adjustment of the financial system, continue to develop the Singapore RMB offshore financial center, and gradually open the capital account in an orderly manner. Broaden the overseas RMB investment and financing channels, for the RMB in ASEAN regionalization channels; (5) the domestic currency value of RMB is not stable enough, the inflation problem is serious, we should expand domestic demand, actively maintain currency stability, and solve the livelihood problem; (6) the promotion of Belt and Road's strategy and the promotion of China's voice in the AIIB provide new impetus and guarantee for RMB regionalization.
【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.6

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