基于太阳黑子冲击视角的中国货币政策有效性测度
发布时间：2019-03-08 10:14
【摘要】：本文通过构建符合中国经济特征的新凯恩斯货币动态随机一般均衡模型,并利用贝叶斯统计推断方法测度和分析我国1992～2009年期间的货币政策有效性问题。研究结果表明,我国货币政策和经济系统始终处于非决定性均衡路径中,由于货币政策并不完全遵循"泰勒规则"模式并能够引致"自我实现预期"的呈现,从而致使经济系统出现非决定性因素,而此非决定性因素能够在一定程度上扭曲市场的供需反应信号。在我国"太阳黑子冲击"虽然能够对内生变量产生显著的冲击影响,但是对基础冲击传导的作用却极为有限和微弱,经济系统中的非决定性因素不仅能够改变基础冲击的传导方式,而且能够引发基础冲击效果的剧烈波动。对内生变量波动的贡献率而言,我国货币政策冲击和"太阳黑子冲击"的作用都较为微弱,而需求冲击和供给冲击的作用较为显著。
[Abstract]:This paper constructs a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of money in accordance with the characteristics of Chinese economy, and measures and analyzes the effectiveness of monetary policy in China during 1992-2009 by using Bayesian statistical inference method. The results show that China's monetary policy and economic system have always been in an indecisive equilibrium path, because monetary policy does not fully follow the Taylor rule model and can lead to the presentation of "self-fulfilling expectations". This leads to the emergence of non-decisive factors in the economic system, which can distort the response signal of market supply and demand to a certain extent. Although the "sunspot shock" in China can have a significant impact on endogenous variables, it has a very limited and weak effect on the conduction of the base shock. The non-decisive factors in the economic system can not only change the conduction mode of the base shock, but also cause the violent fluctuation of the base shock effect. As far as the contribution rate of endogenous variable fluctuations is concerned, the effects of monetary policy shocks and sunspot shocks in China are relatively weak, while the effects of demand shocks and supply shocks are more significant.
【作者单位】： 吉林大学数量经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“‘十二五’期间我国经济周期波动态势与宏观经济调控模式研究”(批准号10ZD&006) 国家自然科学基金项目“非线性随机波动模型估计方法及应用研究”(批准号70971055) 国家自然科学基金项目“货币政策规则非线性的理论模型与计量研究”(批准号71001087) 吉林大学科学前沿与交叉学科创新项目“后金融危机时期我国经济周期波动态势与宏观调控模式研究”(2010JC026)资助
【分类号】：F822.0
[Abstract]:This paper constructs a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of money in accordance with the characteristics of Chinese economy, and measures and analyzes the effectiveness of monetary policy in China during 1992-2009 by using Bayesian statistical inference method. The results show that China's monetary policy and economic system have always been in an indecisive equilibrium path, because monetary policy does not fully follow the Taylor rule model and can lead to the presentation of "self-fulfilling expectations". This leads to the emergence of non-decisive factors in the economic system, which can distort the response signal of market supply and demand to a certain extent. Although the "sunspot shock" in China can have a significant impact on endogenous variables, it has a very limited and weak effect on the conduction of the base shock. The non-decisive factors in the economic system can not only change the conduction mode of the base shock, but also cause the violent fluctuation of the base shock effect. As far as the contribution rate of endogenous variable fluctuations is concerned, the effects of monetary policy shocks and sunspot shocks in China are relatively weak, while the effects of demand shocks and supply shocks are more significant.
【作者单位】： 吉林大学数量经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“‘十二五’期间我国经济周期波动态势与宏观经济调控模式研究”(批准号10ZD&006) 国家自然科学基金项目“非线性随机波动模型估计方法及应用研究”(批准号70971055) 国家自然科学基金项目“货币政策规则非线性的理论模型与计量研究”(批准号71001087) 吉林大学科学前沿与交叉学科创新项目“后金融危机时期我国经济周期波动态势与宏观调控模式研究”(2010JC026)资助
【分类号】：F822.0
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 王德祥;张权;;中国城市政府公共支出效率分析——基于四阶段DEA方法的实证研究[J];财经科学;2011年03期
2 韩华为;苗艳青;;地方政府卫生支出效率核算及影响因素实证研究——以中国31个省份面板数据为依据的DEA-Tobit分析[J];财经研究;2010年05期
3 朱玉春;唐娟莉;;农村公共品投资满意度影响因素分析——基于西北五省农户的调查[J];公共管理学报;2010年03期
4 王志强,孙刚;中国金融发展规模、结构、效率与经济增长关系的经验分析[J];管理世界;2003年07期
5 沈坤荣;张t，
本文编号：2436703
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/guanlilunwen/bankxd/2436703.html
