从1921年上海“信交风潮”看中国人的非理性
发布时间：2019-04-18 19:41
【摘要】：本文收集了1921年发生在上海的“信交风潮”中进行过活跃交易的各主要交易所、信托公司及实体企业股票的日交易价格、交易量及其他相关数据,试图以各种股市泡沫形成及崩盘的经济学理论来解释当时交易所股票的走势。笔者发现“新兴科技”所导致人们对于新兴科技股基本价值高估的理论可以部分解释为什么当时交易所股票呈现显著的泡沫状走势,而传统行业则股价波动相对平稳。证券物品在当时的《申报》等媒体“故意”披露了相当多的利好信息,而且其股价被一批市场操纵者搞多头,从而使得散户相信该所股票不同于其他交易所,可以从其股价上扬走势中获利,即所谓的“理性人预期泡沫",直到1922年2月彻底崩盘。笔者通过股息、代用价格等对证券物品股票的内在价值及泡沫大小的测度结果进一步说明了这一点。风潮结束后投资者长期“谈股色变",企业股票淡出中国近代证券市场,使得资本市场与实体经济长期处于几乎完全疏离的不正常状态。中国今天的证券市场与“信交风潮”时期具有一定相似之处,需要在上市企业风险揭示、投资者结构、投资者自身观念等方面进行提升。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the daily trading price, trading volume and other relevant data of the stock of the major exchanges, trust companies and entities of the active trading in the "the trend of the letter of information" of Shanghai in 1921 are collected. The economic theory of the formation and collapse of stock markets in various stock markets is an attempt to explain the stock of the stock exchange at that time. The author finds that the theory that the "emerging technology" has led to the overestimation of the basic value of the new science and technology unit can partly explain why the stock of the stock exchange has a significant bubble-like trend, and the price fluctuation of the traditional industry is relatively stable. The media "deliberate", at that time, has disclosed a considerable amount of good information, and its share price is multi-headed by a group of market operators, allowing the individual to believe that the stock is different from other exchanges and can benefit from its stock-up trend, the so-called "rational person's expected foam", Until the end of February,1922. The author further explains the intrinsic value of the stock of the stock and the measure result of the foam size through the dividend and the alternative price. The long-term "On the color change of stock" of the investors after the trend has ended, and the stock of the enterprise is out of China's modern securities market, so that the capital market and the real economy are in the abnormal state almost completely separated from each other in a long time. The Chinese stock market today has some similarities with the "the trend of the letter of information" period, and needs to be promoted in the aspects of the risk disclosure, the investor structure and the investor's own concept.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.9
本文编号：2460283
[Abstract]:In this paper, the daily trading price, trading volume and other relevant data of the stock of the major exchanges, trust companies and entities of the active trading in the "the trend of the letter of information" of Shanghai in 1921 are collected. The economic theory of the formation and collapse of stock markets in various stock markets is an attempt to explain the stock of the stock exchange at that time. The author finds that the theory that the "emerging technology" has led to the overestimation of the basic value of the new science and technology unit can partly explain why the stock of the stock exchange has a significant bubble-like trend, and the price fluctuation of the traditional industry is relatively stable. The media "deliberate", at that time, has disclosed a considerable amount of good information, and its share price is multi-headed by a group of market operators, allowing the individual to believe that the stock is different from other exchanges and can benefit from its stock-up trend, the so-called "rational person's expected foam", Until the end of February,1922. The author further explains the intrinsic value of the stock of the stock and the measure result of the foam size through the dividend and the alternative price. The long-term "On the color change of stock" of the investors after the trend has ended, and the stock of the enterprise is out of China's modern securities market, so that the capital market and the real economy are in the abnormal state almost completely separated from each other in a long time. The Chinese stock market today has some similarities with the "the trend of the letter of information" period, and needs to be promoted in the aspects of the risk disclosure, the investor structure and the investor's own concept.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.9
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