通货膨胀预期行为特征与货币政策趋势——基于对货币流通、期货市场与房地产市场的计量验证

发布时间：2019-06-11 19:52

【摘要】：通过分析居民、企业部门的通货膨胀预期对消费和投资的影响,发现通货膨胀预期对总需求具有影响,具有较强不确定性的通胀预期引起产出更为显著波动,从而冲销政策效果。低通货膨胀引起的通胀预期对经济的负面影响较小,通货膨胀不稳定性则诱使通胀预期不稳定,并转而引致经济剧烈波动。为了更好实现预期的货币政策效果,必须将通货膨胀率控制在合理范围内,尤其要努力避免恶性通货膨胀的发生,由此中央银行货币政策操作有必要选择通货膨胀目标,使政策对通货膨胀预期产生"锚定"作用。
[Abstract]:By analyzing the impact of inflation expectations on consumption and investment in residents and enterprises, it is found that inflation expectations have an impact on total demand, and inflation expectations with strong uncertainty cause more significant fluctuations in output, thus offsetting policy effects. Inflation expectations caused by low inflation have little negative impact on the economy, while inflation instability leads to instability of inflation expectations and, in turn, to sharp fluctuations in the economy. In order to better realize the expected monetary policy effect, it is necessary to control the inflation rate within a reasonable range, especially to avoid the occurrence of hyperinflation. Therefore, it is necessary for the monetary policy operation of the central bank to choose the inflation target so that the policy can "anchor" inflation expectations.
【作者单位】：陕西师范大学金融研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(07BJY169) 教育部人文社会科学研究项目(06JA790068) 陕西师范大学“211工程”三期重点建设项目(200903)
【分类号】：F224;F822;F724.5;F293.3

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