进口大众汽车销售端财务分析

发布时间：2018-05-27 22:34

本文选题：财务分析风险评价 + 计分卡　；参考：《河南工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：进口汽车近年来遇到了前所未有的销售危机,包括大众、现代、起亚等品牌在内的车型竞争力下降,销量大幅下滑,分销渠道开始混乱,不断有经销商开始关停或退网。本人在普华永道(北京分所)实习期间,为进口大众汽车销售端提供财务审计和风险控制,能够较全面地掌握经营财务数据,并能够较为自主地对其进行分析,提出自己的见解。本文以传统财务分析方法为基础,针对汽车行业的特点,选取了更加细化的财务指标,例如市场营销费用率、息税折旧前利润等。并且从进口大众汽车公司管理层的角度,在传统财务会计分析的基础上,加入了管理会计的分析方法及理念。使财务分析不再仅仅局限于财务报表的数字之上,而是更加注重业务、注重经营管理本质,更能抓住核心环节。经营业务的财务分析涵盖了盈利分析、营运效率,覆盖到资本来源、资本利用、流动性分析等方面,运用趋势分析法、比率分析法、因素分析法对财务数据进行研究。在分析盈利能力时,针对汽车销售行业的时效性和季节性特点,本文选取了2016年1季度数据作为主要分析对象,并加入2015年1季度、2季度、3季度、4季度数据作为对比分析。在分析运营效率时,针对新车周转率等指标采用全国分区域研究的方法,将全国分为北区、中区、南区、东区、西区共5个区域。在进行流动性分析时,选取了最长时间跨度,最细致数据样本,即涵盖了2013-2015各年4个季度和2016年1季度共13个财务时期。分析发现,进口大众汽车整体新车销售能力大幅提升,营销费用控制凸显成效,整体销售利润率稳步上升,并于本季度实现盈利。但售后业务、精品附件盈利能力下降,二手车业务盈利能力停滞不前。短期偿债风险较大,流动比率未见改善,营运资本仍为负值。分区域看,西区存在短期偿债风险,中区、南区存在长期偿债风险。而东区在短期和长期中均表现出较大偿债风险,并且经营能力偏低,需重点关注。然后建立计分卡风险模型,通过计分卡的方式对所有经销商进行风险评价,筛选出得分最低的5家经销商,并认定为高风险经销商,而其中的3家问题最严重,短期内存在退网风险。最后本文针对上述存在风险,给出了指导建议。
[Abstract]:Imported cars have faced an unprecedented sales crisis in recent years, with models such as Volkswagen, Hyundai and Kia falling in competitiveness, sales falling sharply, distribution channels starting to mess up, and dealers closing or disconnecting. During my internship at PricewaterhouseCoopers (Beijing Branch), I provided financial audit and risk control for the sales end of imported Volkswagen. I was able to master the operating financial data in a more comprehensive way, and I was able to analyze it more autonomously. Put forward one's own opinion. Based on the traditional financial analysis method, this paper selects more detailed financial indexes, such as marketing expense rate, profit before interest, tax and depreciation, according to the characteristics of automobile industry. And from the point of view of the management of imported Volkswagen Company, on the basis of traditional financial accounting analysis, the analysis method and idea of management accounting are added. So that the financial analysis is not only limited to the number of financial statements, but more attention to business, management and management essence, more grasp the core link. The financial analysis of business includes profit analysis, operation efficiency, capital source, capital utilization, liquidity analysis and so on. It uses trend analysis, ratio analysis and factor analysis to study financial data. In the analysis of profitability, aiming at the timeliness and seasonal characteristics of auto sales industry, this paper selects the data of the first quarter of 2016 as the main analysis object, and adds the data of the third quarter and the fourth quarter of the second quarter of 2015 as the comparative analysis. In the analysis of operation efficiency, according to the new car turnover rate and other indicators of the national sub-regional research method, the whole country is divided into North, Central, Southern, Eastern, Western, a total of five regions. In the liquidity analysis, the longest span of time, the most detailed data sample, covering the 2013-2015 four quarters and the first quarter of 2016 a total of 13 financial periods. The analysis found that imported Volkswagen's overall new car sales capacity improved significantly, marketing expense control highlighted the effectiveness, overall sales profit margins rose steadily, and in the quarter to achieve profit. But after-sale business, boutique accessories profitability decline, second-hand car business profitability stagnated. Short-term debt servicing risk is greater, the current ratio has not improved, working capital is still negative. Sub-regional point of view, west there is a short-term repayment risk, central, southern region has long-term solvency risk. In the short-term and long-term, the eastern region has a higher risk of debt service, and its operating capacity is low, so it needs to be paid more attention. Then the risk model of scorecard is set up to evaluate the risk of all dealers through the method of scorecard, and five dealers with the lowest score are screened out, and they are regarded as high risk dealers, and three of them have the most serious problems. In the short term, there is a risk of network withdrawal. Finally, the paper gives some guidance suggestions for the above risks.
【学位授予单位】：河南工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F406.7;F416.471;F752.61

【参考文献】