鞍山师范学院实验楼建设项目工程造价风险管理研究

  本文关键词：鞍山师范学院实验楼建设项目工程造价风险管理研究，，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

        在全球经济飞速发展的二十一世纪,我国建筑事业也在突飞猛进的发展着,但是在发展的同时也出现了很多问题,例如说,工期长、投资大、参与主体多、组织关系复杂等因素,在这样一个多变的自然环境和社会环境中,就使得建设项目面临各种各样的工程造价风险。所以,从成本控制、施工安全和市场竞争等多方面的考虑,加强风险的分析能力和控制能力对于建设项目的主体和客体来说都显得十分重要。加之近年来,国内经济在持续发展的同时也存在一定的不稳定的因素,使得原来就存在于工程招投标及施工管理中的工程造价风险明显增大,这也有一些典型的例子可以借鉴。因此,如何正确的认识工程造价的风险,采取切实有效的应对措施,化解风险,已经成为建设项目中的一项至关重要的工作。实验楼的建设属于一般的房地产楼盘建设项目,对招标标准、施工质量、参与主体都有很高的要求,所以在实验楼的建设项目中势必会有很多风险。风险的不确定性和多变性给实验楼建设项目整体带来了一定的威胁。目前在国际建设项目管理领域中,造价管理理论方面的研究已经有了一定的成果,并且工程项目的风险管理理论和控制理论方面已经将近成熟,但是,对于将工程项目的造价管理理论与工程项目的风险管理及控制理论相结合进行研究尚处于初步发展阶段你,所以,工程项目的造价风险管理研究具有很大的学术意义和实践指导的意义。本文以鞍山师范学院实验楼的建设项目为实证研究的对象,将工程项目的造价管理与风险管理相结合,并应用到具体的实际活动之中,同时对于不同阶段的工程造价情况应用不同的方法,套完整的工程造价风险评价与规避策略,这样一来,本文的研究具有很大的实践指导和借鉴的意义,有着实践应用的价值。首先,工程项目造价的风险管理和风险控制,是在工程项目风险识别的基础上进行的,首先要对工程项目所涉及到的各种不确定的变动性因素进行识别,主要对其产生的背景和表现特点进行研究和分析。工程项目的造价是在工程项目的整体进程中起着至关重要的作用,是工程项目的风险管理的第一步也是尤为重要的一步。工程项目中的造价风险一般情况下都很难辨认,隐藏性很高,也有着太多的不确定性,所以选用正确的方法来对工程项目的造价风险进行识别也就存在着一定的难度,需要根据不同阶段的造价风险的特性,再来决定具体采用的识别方法和手段。其次,在对工程项目造价风险进行了识别之后,对相应的工程项目的造价风险进行评价就至关重要了。我们通过对工程项目的造价风险进行识别和评价,比较工程项目的预算造价与实际造价,预算造价低于实际造价发生的风险的概率,并对该风险进行测定、衡量和估算,以便在工程项目开始之前就采取相应的造价风险处理策略。对工程项目造价的风险进行评价的可选用的方法很多,在具体实际应用时,我们需要对风险的评价更应当根据不同的情况及最终的目标,对工程项目造价的风险评价使用合适的、科学的方法。常用的风险评价方法可以分为定性分析方法和定量分析方法。工程项目造价风险的定性评价方法主要包括:主观评价法、专家调查法、故障树分析法及类推法等。工程项目造价风险的定量评价是在我们对其风险进行了定性评价之后,风险的定量评价能够评价风险发生概率的大小和影响程度,根据这些数据我们可以对造价风险进行综合的评价。程项目造价风险的定量评价方法主要有:层次分析法、模糊综合评分法、概率分析法、马尔科夫过程分析法及蒙特卡洛模拟法等。最后,工程项目的风险处理策略还有很多种,工程项目从最初的可行性分析、经过招标投标、签订合同到最后的实施等环节,无处不存在着风险,对不同的情况应采用不同的风险规避策略,不能一概而论,而且很多风险是无法完全的防范和处理的,应用风险的规避策略:风险回避、风险降低、风险分散、风险转移及风险自留等策略,也只能解决某些风险的问题,并不是所有的风险都可以通过上述一种或者几种策略就可以解决的,需要具体问题具体解决。其他的风险规避方式还有很多,例如工程项目的风险利用、预备计划的制定和其他的风险防范策略。没有一个十分完善的风险规避策略可以规避一切风险的发生,我们能做的只是尽量减少风险的发生,或者减少风险带来的损失代价,尽量保障工程项目的有质有量的完成,降低工程项目的造价风险。结合鞍山实验楼的具体建设情况,我们应用这五种策略在不同的工程项目风险情况的不同的作用,对实验楼建设项目进行了具体的剖析和研究。

    In the 21st century, with the rapid development of global economic, China’s construction enterprises also develop rapidly. But at the same time there also appeared a lot of problems with the development. For example, delay of construction period, big investment, too more participation body and complex relationship, organization and other factors, in such a diverse natural environment and social environment, construction projects have to face with all kinds of engineering cost risk. So, from the cost control, construction safety and market competition and so on, strengthen risk analysis ability and the ability to control the construction project for the subject and object of all become very important. And in recent years, domestic economy in sustainable development at the same time also has certain unstable factors make the original is in engineering bidding and construction management of the engineering cost risks are increased, it also has some typical examples can use. Therefore, how to correct understanding of engineering cost risk and take effective measures, risks, and has already become one of the construction project is very important work.The construction of the building belongs to the general real estate and construction project, building on tender and standards, the construction quality, participation main body all have very high demand, so in the lab of a construction project will inevitably there will be many risks. The risk of uncertainty and variability to the laboratory building construction project as a whole brought a certain amount of threat. Currently in the field of international construction project management, cost management theory research have some results, and project risk management theory and control theory has been nearly mature, but, for the cost of the project and project management theory risk management and control theory research is still at a preliminary stage of development you are, so the cost of the project risk management, academic research has great significance and practical significance of the guidance.In this paper, the normal college of the construction of the experiment building An Shan project for empirical research objects, engineering project cost management and risk management, and the combination of and application to a specific practical activities, and for different stages of the project cost situation different methods, the complete set of project cost risk evaluation and avoid strategy, and thus, this paper is a practical guide and the significance of the value of practical application, has.First, the cost of the project risk management and risk control, is in the engineering project risk identification on the basis of, first of all to project involved all kinds of uncertain factors, major changes to the identification of the background and the performance characteristics of research and analysis. The project is the cost of the project the overall course plays an important role in the engineering project, is the first step of risk management is also particularly important step. The cost of the project risk generally are difficult to identify, conceal a gender, also have high too much uncertainty, so choose the correct way to of project cost risk identification and there is certain difficulty, need according to different stages of the cost of the risk characteristics, then decided to the specific identification method and means.Secondly, in to the project cost risk identification, some after the cost of the project risk assessment is crucial. We through to the project cost risk identification and evaluation, more of the project construction cost and actual cost budget, budget cost less than the actual cost of the probability of risk happened, and the risks of determination, and estimate, in order to measure the project before it begins to take the corresponding cost risk management strategy. Secondly, in to the project cost risk identification, some after the cost of the project risk assessment is crucial. We through to the project cost risk identification and evaluation, more of the project construction cost and actual cost budget, budget cost less than the actual cost of the probability of risk happened, and the risks of determination, and estimate, in order to measure the project before it begins to take the corresponding cost risk management strategy.In the engineering project cost the risk evaluation can choose many methods, in specific practical application, we need to evaluate the risk of more shall, according to the different situations and the final goal of the project, the cost of the risk assessment with the right, the method of science. Some of the risk assessment method can be divided into qualitative analysis method and quantitative analysis method.Finally, project risk management strategies are various, project from the initial feasibility analysis, through tendering and bidding, sign a contract to the final implementation, there is no such links as there is no risk of different situation, should adopt different risk aversion strategy, cannot treat as the same, and a lot of risk is not completely prevent and processing of the application, the evasion of the risks strategy: risk aversion, risk reduction, diversification, the risk transfer and risk privately owned strategy, also can solve some problems of the risk, and not all of the risk can be through the above one or several strategies can solve, need to solve particular problems. Other risk aversion way still has a lot of, for example project risk using, preparation plan and other risk prevention strategies.There is not a good risk hedging strategy can avoid all risks occurrence, what we can do is try to reduce the occurrence of risk, or reduce the risk of loss, try to bring price guarantee of the project have quality have the completion of the quantity, reduce the cost of the project risk. Combined with the construction of concrete anshan building, we use the five strategies in different project risks of different role in building construction project, a concrete analysis and research.

鞍山师范学院实验楼建设项目工程造价风险管理研究

摘要4-7Abstract7-9第1章 绪论11-16    1.1 研究背景和意义11-12    1.2 国内外研究现状12-14    1.3 研究内容与方法14-16第2章 工程造价风险管理相关基础理论16-24    2.1 工程造价管理相关理论16-17    2.2 风险管理相关理论17-20    2.3 工程造价风险管理相关理论20-24第3章 实验楼建设项目工程造价风险识别与评价24-37    3.1 工程项目造价风险的识别与评价24-26    3.2 实验楼建设项目工程造价的风险识别26-29    3.3 实验楼建设项目工程造价的风险评价29-37第4章 实验楼建设项目工程造价风险规避方法与策略37-48    4.1 实验楼建设项目工程的风险规避方法37-40    4.2 实验楼建设项目工程的风险规避策略40-47    4.3 其他风险规避技巧47-48结论48-50参考文献50-52致谢52

  本文关键词：鞍山师范学院实验楼建设项目工程造价风险管理研究，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。