故障树和事件树建模与分析的关键算法研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 19:15

本文选题：可靠性分析　切入点：概率安全评价　出处：《中国科学技术大学》2015年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：系统可靠性分析和安全评价的研究对我国核工业发展与国防安全事业等有着极其重要的意义,故障树和事件树建模与分析技术被公认为是大型复杂系统的可靠性分析和安全性评价的重要方法之一。在故障树和事件树的建模与分析过程中,非逻辑处理、边界条件集处理和共因失效分析是其中的关键环节和重要组成部分,其技术方法的改进优化不仅能够在系统建模分析中减少建模过程的繁杂重复所带来的时间耗费和模型错漏,而且可以提高计算分析精度和减少计算资源消耗,因此本论文针对这些问题展开深入的探索和研究：(1)提出了一种基于德摩根展开改进算法和边界条件相结合的事件树到故障树的转换建模算法,根据多边界条件采用不同的展开建模方式对模型中的非逻辑进行计算处理,通过多个国际标准例题的校核,验证了算法的正确性和计算效率,比传统的大链接转换建模算法节省了8%-33%的计算时间；(2)提出了一种以多开关事件集为基础的故障树转换页重用算法,对故障树的实际开关事件集进行多重嵌套式的处理,解决了多边界条件集事件树分析的模型基本单元取值冲突问题,采用多个国际标准例题与秦山核电厂的实际模型进行了测试和验证,并与国际同类软件RiskSpectrum对比,计算结果正确而且计算速度快7%-43%；(3)发展了一种支持非匀称共因失效的共因结构分解法,提高了多边界条件集的事件树分析和计算速度。此方法基于多重共因失效分解,并从传统匀称性假设中抽象出更为宽松合理的独立失效拆分假设和共因影响效果匀称性假设,使得分解转换后的共因组能够使用传统共因失效模型进行计算,而且能支持多种部件类型和不同共因模型的非匀称共因失效分析,将新方法与传统的乐观和保守的共因失效分析方法进行了比较分析,验证了新方法的正确性和有效性。基于上述研究,本论文在中国科学院核能安全技术研究所·FDS团队前期开发的可靠性和概率安全分析软件RiskA的基础上,对故障树和事件树的建模与分析模块的相应关键算法进行了编程实现和应用验证。所发展的关键技术能够快速对大型复杂系统进行更高效率和精度的故障树和事件树的建模与分析,促进了故障树和事件树建模分析技术的进一步发展及其在我国核能利用与国防安全等领域的广泛应用。
[Abstract]:The study of system reliability analysis and safety evaluation is of great significance to the development of nuclear industry and national defense security in China. Fault tree and event tree modeling and analysis techniques are recognized as one of the most important methods for reliability analysis and security evaluation of large-scale complex systems. Boundary condition set processing and common cause failure analysis are the key links and important components. The improvement and optimization of its technical method can not only reduce the time consumption and model error caused by the complicated duplication of modeling process in system modeling analysis. And it can improve the accuracy of calculation and reduce the consumption of computing resources. Therefore, in this paper, we deeply explore and study these problems. (1) an event tree to fault tree transformation modeling algorithm based on the improved de Morgan expansion algorithm and boundary conditions is proposed. According to the multi-boundary conditions, different expansion modeling methods are used to calculate and process the non-logic in the model. The correctness and efficiency of the algorithm are verified by the checking of several international standard examples. This paper proposes a fault tree conversion page reuse algorithm based on multi-switch event set, which can deal with the actual switch event set of fault tree in multiple nested way. The problem of model basic unit value conflict in event tree analysis of multi-boundary condition set is solved. Several international standard examples are used to test and verify the actual model of Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant, and it is compared with the international similar software RiskSpectrum. The result of calculation is correct and the calculation speed is 7 ~ 43) A common factor structure decomposition method supporting non-uniform common cause failure is developed, which improves the analysis and calculation speed of event tree of multi-boundary condition set. This method is based on multiple common factor failure decomposition. Furthermore, a more relaxed and reasonable hypothesis of independent failure resolution and homogenization of the effect of common cause is abstracted from the traditional homogenization hypothesis, so that the decomposed and converted common cause group can be calculated using the traditional common cause failure model. Moreover, the new method is compared with the traditional optimistic and conservative common cause failure analysis method, which can support the non-symmetrical common cause failure analysis of various component types and different common cause models, and the new method is compared with the traditional optimistic and conservative common cause failure analysis method. The validity and validity of the new method are verified. Based on the above research, this paper is based on the reliability and probabilistic safety analysis software RiskA developed by the FDS team of the Institute of Nuclear Safety Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The corresponding key algorithms of fault tree and event tree modeling and analysis module are programmed and verified by application. The key technologies developed can quickly carry out more efficient and accurate fault trees and events for large-scale complex systems. Modeling and Analysis of piece Tree, It promotes the further development of fault tree and event tree modeling and analysis technology and its wide application in nuclear energy utilization and national defense security in China.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学技术大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TB114.3

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