文家沟泥石流治理工程效果的定量分析评价

发布时间：2018-10-19 12:02

【摘要】：汶川地震后文家沟频繁暴发泥石流,给当地居民带了巨大的财产损失并造成了人员伤亡。为了防范泥石流带来的危害,文家沟治理工程采用了"上游水砂分离、中游固底护坡、下游拦挡停淤"的总体思路并完成治理。在治理工程经历了5个雨季的考验之后,本文基于生存分析模型以及Bootstrap方法和ELM,从定量研究的角度对治理工程的效果进行分析评价。生存分析模型结果表明治理前生存概率降低至0%时,治理后仍为55.6%;治理后暴发泥石流的最大小时降雨量为治理前的2.571倍,降雨总量为治理前的1.232倍,降雨历时为治理前的5.435倍;模型结果体现了治理工程泥石流防范的重要作用。Bootstrap方法以及ELM模型结果表明,在假设没有治理工程情况下,2011~2015年的10次降雨事件暴发泥石流概率为100%,远高于真实情况的30%;且预测的泥石流冲出量远远大于真实的冲出量;模型结果体现了治理工程防灾减灾的重要性。
[Abstract]:Wenjiagou frequently broke out debris flow after Wenchuan earthquake, which brought huge property loss and casualties to local residents. In order to prevent the harm caused by debris flow, Wenjiagou treatment project adopts the general idea of "separating upstream water and sand, protecting the bottom slope in the middle reaches, stopping and silting in the lower reaches" and accomplishing the control. After five rainy seasons, based on the survival analysis model, Bootstrap method and ELM, this paper analyzes and evaluates the effect of the treatment project from the perspective of quantitative research. The results of survival analysis model showed that when the survival probability was reduced to 0, the maximum hourly rainfall of debris flow was 2.571 times of that before treatment, the total rainfall was 1.232 times and the duration of rainfall was 5.435 times as long as that before treatment. The results of the model reflect the important role of debris flow prevention in engineering. The results of Bootstrap method and ELM model show that, The probability of debris flow breaking out in 10 rainfall events from 2011 to 2015 is 100, which is much higher than that of the real situation, and the predicted amount of debris flow is much larger than the real amount of debris flow. The model results show the importance of disaster prevention and mitigation.
【作者单位】：地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室(成都理工大学);爱荷华大学智能系统研究实验室;成都理工大学外国语学院;
【基金】：高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20135122130002) 国家自然科学基金创新研究群体科学基金(41521002) 国家杰出青年科学基金(41225011)资助
【分类号】：P642.23

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