基于故障树的供应链风险评估方法研究

发布时间：2018-01-25 02:38

本文关键词： 供应链风险风险评估故障树分析报童模型网络层次分析　出处：《燕山大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济社会的快速发展促使供应链外部环境和内部运作的动态变化进一步加剧，使其所面临的不确定性因素增多，进而使得由供应链风险所引起的供应链延迟和中断频繁发生。加强对供应链风险的识别与评估研究，是关系到能否更好地防范和控制供应链风险、保证供应链正常运作的关键，因此此项研究具有很强的理论意义和实践价值。论文在研究国内外大量相关文献的基础之上，吸收国内外丰富的研究成果，综合运用供应链管理、风险管理等多个学科的理论和报童模型、网络层次分析法、故障树分析等多种量化技术，采用理论分析与算例分析相结合的方法，对供应链风险的识别与评估进行了系统的研究。主要研究内容如下：首先，采用供应链运作参考模型对供应链所面临的风险进行识别，得到了比较全面的供应链风险系统识别结果。在此基础之上，引入了对复杂系统分析行之有效的故障树风险分析方法，并建立了基于故障树的供应链风险评估模型。同时，通过应用报童模型对供应链风险的成本性及收益性进行权衡，得到更为合理的底事件发生概率。其次，在故障树中引入权重，通过网络层次分析法确定底事件之间的相对权重，，更好的体现了供应链管理者对不同风险的敏感度及需求的差异，真实地反映了实际情况。最后，通过对故障树定量分析的改进得到更加合理的供应链系统风险概率及各个风险的重要度，并通过算例模拟对整个风险评估过程进行数据分析，对模型结果参数的实际意义作出解释，为供应链管理者进行风险分析提供了依据。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy and society, the dynamic changes of external environment and internal operation of supply chain are becoming more and more serious, and the uncertainty factors are increasing. Therefore, the delay and interruption of supply chain caused by supply chain risk occur frequently. To strengthen the research on identification and evaluation of supply chain risk is related to whether we can better prevent and control supply chain risk. The key to ensure the normal operation of the supply chain, so this study has a strong theoretical and practical value. On the basis of studying a large number of related literature at home and abroad, this paper absorbs abundant research results at home and abroad, and synthetically applies the theories and newsboy models of supply chain management, risk management, and network analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Fault tree analysis and other quantitative techniques are used to systematically study the risk identification and evaluation of supply chain by combining theoretical analysis with case analysis. The main contents of this paper are as follows: First, the supply chain operation reference model is used to identify the risks faced by the supply chain, and a more comprehensive identification results of the supply chain risk system are obtained. An effective fault tree risk analysis method for complex system analysis is introduced, and a supply chain risk assessment model based on fault tree is established. By using newsboy model to weigh the cost and profitability of supply chain risk, a more reasonable probability of bottom event occurrence is obtained. Secondly, the weight is introduced into the fault tree. Through the analytic hierarchy process to determine the relative weight between the bottom events, better reflect the supply chain managers' sensitivity to different risks and differences in demand, and truly reflect the actual situation. By improving the quantitative analysis of the fault tree, we can get more reasonable risk probability and the importance of each risk in the supply chain system, and analyze the data of the whole risk assessment process by the example simulation. The practical significance of the model result parameters is explained, which provides a basis for the risk analysis of supply chain managers.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F274;F224

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