考虑二次订购机会的供应链供需不确定性风险管控

发布时间：2018-03-04 17:12

本文选题：供应链风险管控　切入点：蒙特卡洛模拟　出处：《北京邮电大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在“外包”策略被普遍采用和全球化浪潮迭起的今天,对于任何一个企业,供应链都占据着影响企业运营成本和效率的关键地位。在越来越复杂化、动态化的供应链中,供应链中任意一方面临的风险都可能传递到供应链其他各方,造成整个供应链的损失。因此,需要对供应链典型运营风险的管控方式进行研究,寻找通过供应链各方之间的协调或协作保证供应链整体的盈利性和连续性的方式。为了研究供应链典型运营风险的管控方式,本文在一个由单个供应商和单个零售商组成的两级供应链系统中,分别建立了供应商主导、零售商主导和系统主导三种供应链协作模式下的供应链各方期望利润模型。采用了一种新的与仿真相结合的算法分析了不同协作模式下此两级供应链的两时期最优决策问题。讨论了通过市场需求价格弹性系数、市场容量、需求均匀分布跨度和生产成本等参数的突变进行模拟的供应链典型运营风险对不同协作模式下的供应链各方利润的影响。分析了在供应链典型运营风险影响下,以供应链某一方期望利润最优为目标的供应链协作模式选择方式；并设计了改进的收益共享契约,得出了考虑供应链系统整体期望利润的供应链风险管控方式。研究发现,相对需求分布跨度和生产成本,供应链各方期望利润对需求价格弹性系数的波动和市场需求总量的波动更为敏感；而作为供应链主导方承担风险造成的影响并不总是带来高昂的成本,相反,主导供应链的一方总能够获得较多的利润。另外,改进的收益共享契约可以作为典型供应链运营风险的管控方式,使供应链各方进行风险共担、并使各方期望利润达到相较于零售商主导或供应商主导的供应链协作模式的帕累托改进。研究成果可以为企业量化需求波动风险和生产成本变动风险对自身或其所在供应链的影响提供帮助,或为企业通过契约设计有效的供应链协作机制管控供应链典型运营风险提供参考。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, "outsourcing" strategy is widely adopted and the tide of globalization is rising. For any enterprise, supply chain plays a key role in affecting the operation cost and efficiency of enterprises. In the increasingly complex and dynamic supply chain, supply chain is becoming more and more complex and dynamic. The risks faced by either side of the supply chain may be transferred to other parties in the supply chain, resulting in the loss of the whole supply chain. Therefore, it is necessary to study the management and management of typical operational risks in the supply chain. To find ways to ensure the profitability and continuity of the supply chain through coordination or collaboration between the supply chain parties. In order to study the management mode of typical operational risk in supply chain, this paper establishes the supplier leading system in a two-level supply chain system composed of a single supplier and a single retailer, respectively. The expected profit model of the parties in the supply chain under the three cooperation modes of retailer leading and system leading. A new algorithm combined with simulation is used to analyze the two stages of the two levels of supply chain in different cooperation modes. The price elasticity coefficient of market demand is discussed. The effects of typical operational risks of supply chain on the profit of supply chain under different cooperation modes are simulated by the sudden changes of market capacity, uniform distribution of demand span and production cost, and the effects of typical operational risks of supply chain on the profits of all parties in supply chain are analyzed. The mode of supply chain cooperation is chosen aiming at the optimal expected profit of one side of the supply chain, and the improved revenue sharing contract is designed, and the supply chain risk management mode considering the overall expected profit of the supply chain system is obtained. It is found that relative to the span of demand distribution and the cost of production, the expected profits of all parties in the supply chain are more sensitive to the fluctuation of the price elasticity coefficient of demand and the fluctuation of the total market demand. However, the impact of taking risks on the supply chain does not always bring high cost. On the contrary, the leading party of the supply chain can always make more profit. In addition, The improved revenue-sharing contract can be used as a typical supply chain operation risk management method, so that all parties in the supply chain share the risk. It also makes the parties expect profits to reach Pareto improvement compared with the retailer-led or supplier-led supply chain collaboration mode. The research results can quantify the demand volatility risk and the production cost change risk to the enterprise or to itself or its. To help with the impact of the supply chain, It also provides a reference for enterprises to design effective supply chain cooperation mechanism through contract to manage the typical operational risks of supply chain.
【学位授予单位】：北京邮电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F274

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