特定天气下供应链契约激励模型研究

发布时间：2018-03-11 19:25

本文选题：案例推理　切入点：供应链外部不确定性　出处：《吉林大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：供应链在几十年的发展演变中不断得到突破，供应链的结构及关系也越来越复杂。从供应链内部关系来看，，核心企业和供应商由所谓的“纵向一体化”转变为“横向一体化”。这样的改变一方面提高了供应链的生产效率，做到合理分工，增强了供应链各成员企业之间信息共享程度，进而使供应链总收益提高。但另一方面，供应链的复杂性极易受外部环境的变化影响，例如，发生自然灾害、经济危机、恐怖袭击等不确定事件时，供应链的脆弱性即突显出来，这些不确定事件对供应链的影响很大。根据供应链外部不确定性传递性的特征，一旦供应链中一个节点发生问题，可能使整个供应链系统延迟或瘫痪。因此，需要根据外部环境发生变化的性质改变供应链的应对策略，以提高供应链抗风险的能力，保障供应链正常运转。本文主要研究特定天气下供应链契约协调的相关研究，这里的特定天气主要是指降雪天气。众所周知，降雪天气会对路面的能见度及摩擦系数造成影响，进而影响供应车辆的运输速度。当供求双方已经约定好运达时间时，运输车辆可能因为降雪而产生延迟。在分散决策模式下，运输车辆因提前到达或延迟所产生的库存成本和惩罚成本都是由供应商一方承担的。但在集中模式下，为了使供应商和制造商双方所组成的供应链利益最大化，建立时间不确定契约激励机制，即供应商调整降雪天气的出发时间提前出发，如果供应商能够准时到达则制造商给予奖励。本文研究主要分为：（1）根据降雪程度的不同对雪天道路状况进行划分，降雪天气影响车辆速度的主要因素包括能见度和道路摩擦系数。所以，不同的降雪等级对应着不同的运达时间。制造商需要对不同降雪程度的配送时间进行推理，估算出不同降雪程度下车辆的配送时间。（2）建立降雪天气下供应链的一般模型，此时供应商运输可能出现三种情况，提前到达、准时到达和延迟到达。根据降雪量的不同，本文规定无论是提前到达还是延迟到达，供应商都将有惩罚成本。所以，只有准时到达，供应商的收益才最大。（3）根据供应链协调的思想，对以上模型进行改进，通过激励机制使供应商提前出发，以保证其准时到达。通过数值算例检验证明，在降雪天气下使用该模型能使供应链的收益实现帕累托最优，本文提出的方法科学、有效。
[Abstract]:The structure and relationship of supply chain are becoming more and more complex in the development and evolution of supply chain in the past decades. From the point of view of the internal relationship of supply chain, The core enterprises and suppliers have changed from "vertical integration" to "horizontal integration". On the one hand, such changes have improved the production efficiency of the supply chain, achieved a reasonable division of labor, and enhanced the degree of information sharing among the members of the supply chain. On the other hand, the complexity of the supply chain is vulnerable to changes in the external environment, such as natural disasters, economic crises, terrorist attacks and other uncertain events. The vulnerability of the supply chain is highlighted, and these uncertain events have a great impact on the supply chain. According to the transitive characteristics of the external uncertainty of the supply chain, once a node in the supply chain has a problem, The whole supply chain system may be delayed or paralyzed. Therefore, it is necessary to change the supply chain's coping strategy according to the changing nature of the external environment, in order to improve the supply chain's ability to resist risks and ensure the supply chain's normal operation. This paper mainly studies the supply chain contract coordination under specific weather, where the specific weather mainly refers to snowfall weather. As we all know, snowfall weather will affect the visibility and friction coefficient of road surface. When the supply and demand parties have agreed on the delivery time, the transport vehicle may be delayed by snowfall. In decentralized decision-making mode, The inventory cost and penalty cost of the transport vehicle due to early arrival or delay are borne by the supplier. However, in the centralized mode, in order to maximize the benefits of the supply chain formed by both the supplier and the manufacturer, The incentive mechanism of time uncertainty contract is established, that is, the supplier adjusts the departure time of snowfall weather, and if the supplier can arrive on time, the manufacturer will reward. 1) according to the degree of snowfall, the road condition of snowy days is divided. The main factors that affect the speed of vehicles in snowfall weather include visibility and friction coefficient of roads. Different snowfall levels correspond to different arrival times. Manufacturers need to infer the distribution time of different snowfall levels to estimate the delivery time of vehicles with different snowfall levels. 2) establishing a general model of the supply chain in snowfall weather, where supplier transportation may occur in three situations: early arrival, punctual arrival and delayed arrival. According to the different amount of snowfall, this article stipulates that either early arrival or late arrival. Suppliers will have a penalty cost. Therefore, only when they arrive on time will the supplier's profit be maximized. 3) according to the idea of supply chain coordination, the above model is improved, and the supplier can set out ahead of time through incentive mechanism to ensure its arrival on time. Using this model in snowfall can make the profit of supply chain achieve Pareto optimal. The method proposed in this paper is scientific and effective.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F274;P49

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