电动车制造业ERP及销售预测模型优化研究

发布时间：2018-03-13 10:11

本文选题：制造业　切入点：ERP　出处：《吉林大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国中小型制造企业存在组织结构简单、部门职责交叉混杂、管理体制不健全等问题，一方面，在企业内部管理上，由于各部门职责的不明确，导致各部门间工作协调力差，企业内部信息不能顺畅的流通，这样一来，面对生产任务时，企业无法快速而又准确的下达生产命令，行动目标模糊，计划不周密，可能跟不上市场的风云变幻，最终导致资源的极大的浪费；另一方面，当今市场的竞争已经不是单个企业间的竞争，而是整个企业供应链之间的竞争，实施ERP的制造企业，能够很好的整合供应商资源，客户资源，及各种生产要素，弥补以前依靠人力去费劲整合这些资源的不足，形成了企业的综合竞争实力。特别是中小型制造企业，由于其规模小，信息资源少，更有必要及时的与自己本行业的供应链进行沟通，及时获得信息。借助ERP系统可以解决企业信息闭塞的局面，给企业注入生机与活力。本文针对我国中小型制造企业在发展过程中出现的管理不规范和企业业务流程不科学等问题，运用科学的流程规范方法，以电动车制造企业流程为例进行分析，分别对采购、销售、生产加工等环节进行业务流程分析与优化，提出电动车制造业业务生产的一般模型，接着对企业进销存活动作需求分析，，规划销售、采购、库存等部门的职责功能，结合企业的实际情况，在需求分析的基础上，抽象出数据库的模型，设计ERP的框架，并且开发出电动车制造业ERP系统。然而，ERP只是解决了企业管理上资源优化问题，随着ERP在企业的运行，在后台数据库中积累了大量的业务数据，特别是销售方面的数据，如果能对这些数据加以分析，挖掘出它背后的知识、规则，将会更好地指导企业领导人的决策活动。本文研究了销售相关数据，并且运用神经网络、时间序列分析、灰色理论等方法，构建了销售预测模型，对比这几种方法的预测结果，采用预测误差最小方法来指导销售预测工作，并且在模型形成的基础上，开发了销售预测系统，从而更好地为企业决策提供支持，提高企业生产效率。
[Abstract]:The small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises in our country have some problems, such as simple organization structure, intersecting responsibilities of departments, imperfect management system and so on. On the one hand, in the internal management of enterprises, due to the lack of clear responsibilities of various departments, the coordination of work among different departments is poor. The flow of information within the enterprise cannot be smooth. As a result, when faced with production tasks, enterprises cannot issue production orders quickly and accurately, their action objectives are vague, their plans are not well-planned, and they may not be able to keep up with the changing circumstances of the market. On the other hand, the competition in the market today is not the competition among individual enterprises, but the competition between the supply chain of the whole enterprise. The manufacturing enterprises that implement ERP can integrate the resources of suppliers very well. Customer resources, as well as various factors of production, make up for the lack of previous efforts to integrate these resources by relying on manpower, thus forming the comprehensive competitive strength of enterprises, especially small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises, because of their small scale and low information resources. It is more necessary to communicate with the supply chain in time and get the information in time. With the help of ERP system, we can solve the situation of information block, and inject vitality and vitality into the enterprise. Aiming at the problems of non-standard management and unscientific business process in the development process of small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises in China, this paper analyzes the process of electric vehicle manufacturing enterprises by using the method of scientific process specification, and then analyzes the purchasing process respectively. Business process analysis and optimization are carried out in sales, production and processing, and a general model of business production in the electric vehicle manufacturing industry is put forward. Then the functions of the departments such as sales, procurement, inventory and other departments are analyzed in terms of demand analysis, sales, purchasing, inventory and so on. According to the actual situation of the enterprise, on the basis of requirement analysis, the model of database is abstracted, the frame of ERP is designed, and the ERP system of electric vehicle manufacturing industry is developed. However, ERP only solves the problem of resource optimization in enterprise management. With the operation of ERP in the enterprise, it accumulates a large amount of business data in the backstage database, especially sales data, if these data can be analyzed. Mining out the knowledge and rules behind it will better guide the decision-making activities of business leaders. This paper studies the sales related data, and constructs a sales forecasting model by using the methods of neural network, time series analysis, grey theory, etc. Compared with the prediction results of these methods, the minimum prediction error method is used to guide the sales forecasting work, and on the basis of the model formation, a sales forecasting system is developed to provide better support for enterprise decision-making. Improve the production efficiency of enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TP183;F270.7;F426.472

【共引文献】