铁矿石供应不确定下的钢铁供应链鲁棒性分析

发布时间：2018-03-27 05:21

本文选题：钢铁供应链　切入点：供应链鲁棒性　出处：《北京交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：钢铁供应链包括原材料供应、钢铁生产、钢铁销售三个基本环节,涉及原材料供应商、钢铁生产企业、钢铁分销零售企业、终端用户以及物流企业。本文研究对象为一条三级生产型钢铁供应链,即原材料供应商、钢铁生产企业、终端用户组成的供应链。由于钢铁供应链的复杂性以及所处环境的开放性,在运行过程中不可避免的会遇到来自内部运作以及外部突发事件所带来的各种不确定性因素,使得供应链面临着无法正常运行,甚至链条断裂的风险。所以,提高钢铁供应链的抗风险能力,由供应链自身产生“由内而外”的抵抗力,即增强供应链自身的鲁棒性,显得至关重要。通过分析钢铁供应链的基本结构和特点,可以看出钢铁供应链中铁矿石的供应在价格、物流、数量等方面存在很高的不确定性。本文应用供应链不确定性理论、供应链鲁棒性理论以及系统动力学理论,研究分析在铁矿石供应不确定性下钢铁供应链鲁棒性问题。根据钢铁供应链鲁棒性内涵,确定了钢铁供应链鲁棒性判据,即钢铁供应链总成本、客户未满足的需求量,建立了钢铁供应链不确定性因素与系统鲁棒性之间的关联性。基于前面的研究结果,建立钢铁供应链鲁棒性分析的因果关系回路图和钢铁供应链成本系统流图、客户需求系统流图。并且结合仿真算例,分别在铁矿石价格、物流、数量供应不确定性的干扰下,进行鲁棒过程情景分析。最后,通过动态仿真结果分析,找出保证系统鲁棒性所需的条件,为钢铁企业对供应链系统进行鲁棒控制、制定鲁棒策略提供了很好的依据。
[Abstract]:The steel supply chain consists of three basic links: raw material supply, steel production and steel sales. It involves raw material suppliers, steel producers, steel distribution and retail enterprises. The research object of this paper is a three-level production steel supply chain, that is, raw material supplier, iron and steel production enterprise, Due to the complexity of the steel supply chain and the openness of the environment, it is inevitable to encounter all kinds of uncertainties brought about by internal operation and external emergencies during the operation of the supply chain. The supply chain is faced with the risk of not running normally or even breaking the chain. Therefore, to improve the ability of steel supply chain to resist risks, the supply chain itself produces resistance from inside to outside, that is, to enhance the robustness of the supply chain itself. It is of vital importance. By analyzing the basic structure and characteristics of iron and steel supply chain, we can see that the iron ore supply in iron and steel supply chain has high uncertainty in price, logistics, quantity and so on. Based on the supply chain robustness theory and system dynamics theory, this paper studies and analyzes the steel supply chain robustness under the uncertainty of iron ore supply. According to the connotation of steel supply chain robustness, the steel supply chain robustness criterion is determined. That is, the total cost of steel supply chain, customer unsatisfied demand, the relationship between the uncertainty of steel supply chain and system robustness is established. The causality loop diagram of steel supply chain robustness analysis, the cost system flow diagram of iron and steel supply chain, customer demand system flow diagram are established, and combined with simulation examples, under the influence of uncertainty of iron ore price, logistics and quantity supply, respectively, Finally, through the dynamic simulation results analysis, we find out the necessary conditions to ensure the robustness of the system, which provides a good basis for the steel enterprises to control the supply chain system robust and formulate robust strategy.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F252;N941.3

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