考虑缺货拖后与短缺效应的供应链协调契约研究

发布时间：2018-03-30 04:11

本文选题：缺货拖后　切入点：短缺效应　出处：《昆明理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：市场需求的不确定、缺货损失和库存积压都会给企业带来不利影响,因此合理地制定订购策略成为众多供应链企业关注的焦点。一般而言,缺货会导致一系列的损失(如缺货成本的提高,补货的额外成本等),然而在现实经济活动中,部分忠实的消费者对某些品牌商品具有偏好行为,在出现缺货的情况下他们愿意继续等待,供不应求的销售场面会刺激潜在消费者的购买欲。相反地,剩余库存的积压会使得消费者认为该商品并不畅销,供过于求的现象不但造成资源浪费,而且会流失一部分消费群体,使他们更青睐于促销火爆的缺货产品。因此,本文拟在深入分析缺货拖后与短缺效应的基础上,基于主从博弈理论,建立由一个供应商和一个零售商构成的供应链协调契约模型,提出相应的供应链契约协调机制,实现供应链系统整体最优和企业共赢,从而为供应商制定批发价格以及零售商调整订购策略等方面提供科学有效的理论指导。因此,本文的研究意义如下:理论上,本文侧重于缺货拖后与短缺效应带来的经济效益,从供应链协调角度出发,探讨供应链订货协调问题,并进一步分析非平稳随机需求下的两周期迭代品供应链协调情况,丰富了该领域的理论体系;实践上,可为零售企业在不同缺货程度下制定订货策略提供借鉴和参考,有助于企业运营效率的提高和经济效益的增长。首先,本文研究了缺货拖后与短缺效应下的单周期供应链协调问题。供应商在销售季节前和销售季节末向零售商提供两次订购机会,随后根据主从博弈理论构建批发价格契约模型,得出结论如下:当存在缺货拖后及弱短缺效应时,批发价格契约可以实现供应链协调,并且可在一定范围内实现供应商和零售商之间对系统利润的任意分配,此时的最优订货策略是在销售季节初大量订货,在销售季节末进行部分补货;当存在中等短缺效应时,批发价格契约不能协调供应链,引入收益共享契约可实现供应链协调并任意分配系统的利润,此时的最优订货策略是在销售季节初不订货,而在销售季节末进行大量订货;当存在强短缺效应时,批发价格契约不仅能够实现供应链协调,而且可以任意分配系统利润,此时的最优订货策略和中等短缺效应是类似的。其次,本文研究了缺货拖后与非平稳随机需求下的两周期迭代品供应链协调问题。考虑到需求的非平稳、随机性等特点,假设第一阶段的销售情况对第二阶段的市场需求有着直接影响,得出以下重要结论:当缺货拖后系数变大时,零售商应适当降低第一阶段的订购数量,增加第二阶段订购数量;当批发价格等于生产成本,且收益共享比例与成本共担比例相等时,结合收益共享与成本共担的组合契约能够达到完美共赢结局,同时可以实现系统利润的任意分配。最后,通过以上研究内容和结果,为企业存在缺货拖后和短缺效应情况下如何制定最优订货策略提供合理化建议,同时提出本文内容中存在的局限性,并且对未来的学术探索道路进行展望。
[Abstract]:The uncertainty of market demand, stock loss and inventory backlog will bring adverse effect to the enterprise, thus establishing reasonable strategy in order to become the focus of many enterprises in the supply chain of concern. In general, the shortage will lead to a series of losses (such as shortage cost increase, replenishment additional costs), but in the real economic activities that part of the loyal consumers have preference for some brands of goods, in the case of shortage and they are willing to continue to wait, short sales scene will stimulate the potential consumers to buy. On the contrary, the remaining inventory backlog will make consumers believe that the goods are not sold, the phenomenon of pile up in excess of requirement is not only a waste of resources, but also the loss of a part of the consumer groups, so that they prefer the promotional hot stock products. Therefore, this paper based on the in-depth analysis of effect and short out later On the game theory based on the established model of supply chain coordination contract consisting of a supplier and a retailer, put forward the corresponding mechanism of supply chain coordination, implementation of supply chain system and the optimal overall enterprise win-win, and the wholesale price and the retailer's ordering strategy adjustment so as to provide scientific and effective theoretical guidance for supplier therefore, the significance of this study are as follows: in theory, this paper focuses on the shortage and shortage brought back the effect of economic benefits, starting from the perspective of supply chain coordination, supply chain coordination order problem, and further analysis of the two non iterative cycle products supply chain coordination stable under stochastic demand, enrich the theoretical system of the field; in practice, and can provide the reference for the retail business ordering strategy in different degree of shortage, is helpful to improve the efficiency of the enterprise and economic benefits The problem of single cycle growth. Firstly, the supply chain coordination is studied in this paper and the shortage of stock drag under the effect. The supplier before the selling season and the end of sales season to provide retailers with a two chance to order, then according to the construction of the wholesale price contract model of game theory, draw the conclusion as follows: when there is shortage of drag and weak shortage effect, the wholesale price contract can coordinate the supply chain, and can realize the system of any profit distribution between the supplier and the retailer in a certain range, the optimal ordering strategy at this time is a large order in the early part of the season, replenishment at the end of sales season; when there is shortage of secondary effects, the wholesale price contract cannot coordinate supply chain, introducing the revenue sharing contract can achieve supply chain coordination and arbitrary distribution system profit, optimal ordering strategy at this time is in the sales season in early order, and A large number of orders at the end of sales season; when there are strong shortage effect, the wholesale price contract can not only coordinate the supply chain, but also can profit distribution system, optimal order strategy and secondary effect is similar to the shortage of time. Secondly, two cycle iterative product supply chain coordination in this paper shortage and non-stationary delay under the stochastic demand. Considering the characteristics of nonstationary demand, randomness, has a direct impact on sales of the first stage of the hypothesis of the second phase of the market demand, draws the following important conclusion: when the drag coefficient of stock becomes large, retailers should be appropriate to reduce the first phase of the order quantity, increase the second period order quantity; when the wholesale price is equal to the cost of production, and the revenue sharing ratio and cost sharing ratio is equal, with the combination of revenue sharing contract and cost sharing to achieve win-win. Bureau of arbitrary distribution and can realize the profit of the system. Finally, through the above research contents and results, provide reasonable suggestions for the enterprise existence shortage and shortage of drag effect. How to develop the optimal ordering strategy, and puts forward the limitations of the content, and to explore the road of future academic prospects.

【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F274

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