炼油与生物燃料供应链优化及不确定性研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 23:28

本文选题：供应链优化 + 炼油供应链　；参考：《浙江大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：随着社会对能源需求的逐步增大,作为当今主要能源的石化燃料也面临着更高的供需要求。同时在石油日益短缺今天,生物燃料由于其环境友好,地域分布均衡,能值高等特点,成为了最有希望成为替代传统石油的新型能源。炼油厂的供应链优化在提升传统石化能源的整体生产效率,降低加工,运输和存储成本等各方面都起着极为重要的作用。与此同时,合理的利用现有炼油厂设施,设计合理的生物燃料供应链网络,可以有效的提升新能源的使用比率,从而进一步满足能源需求,促进社会发展。本文分别从提高炼油供应链和生物燃料供应链运作效率的角度上,对研究现状进行了具体分析,对炼油供应链计划优化,生物燃料供应链设计优化,以及两者供应链集成等问题进行了系统而深入的研究。本文的主要内容和创新点如下： 1.提出了炼油厂供应链计划问题的条件风险价值模型,在最优化经济指标的同时控制风险,为炼油供应链计划问题中的不确定性处理提供了新思路。采用样本平均逼近的方法来确定最佳风险阈值,并且测试了结果的鲁棒性。在场景数量的选择上,采用统计的方法在精确性和计算效率之间做折中。同时,深入挖掘产率波动这一内在不确定性,提出了结合优化与仿真的迭代算法,在条件风险价值的随机规划的框架下,得出满意解。 2.从炼油厂供应链的生产和配送的角度,分析了当前将炼油厂生产调度优化和管道调度优化分开考虑的不足与缺点,提出了生产调度和管道调度集成模型,从整体上优化生产调度,油品调和,管道调度与库存管理。相比传统顺序式的拉式和推式求解策略,该集成模型不仅能保证整体优化问题的可行性,而且能大幅降低整体成本。 3.针对第三代高级碳氢生物燃料的供应链与现有炼油厂设备的关系,首次提出了碳氢生物燃料供应链集成已有炼油厂的设计优化模型。模型同时兼顾生物燃料供应链战略设计与战术计划优化两个因素,综合考虑了生物炼油厂的不同技术方案,加工规模的选择,与传统炼油厂集成策略的确定,以及生物质的分布性、季节性、易腐蚀性,需求的分布性和政府财政补贴等特点。采用模糊可能性规划方法对供应链设计优化模型中的不确定性进行分析优化,决策者可以根据个人偏好选择可能性,必然性和可信性当作评价指标。 4.从最小化单位成本的角度,提出了高级碳氢生物燃料供应链集成已有炼油厂的混合整数分式规划模型。采用了两种特定算法对此优化问题进行求解。同时从最优解,容差,计算时间等方面比较了特定算法与通用的混合整数线性规划求解器在此优化问题上的差别。详细分析了以单位成本最小化与以总体成本最小化为目标的决策所造成的差别。提出了一个兼顾模型鲁棒性和经济性的鲁棒优化方法对供应链不确定性进行处理。 5.首次提出了传统炼油厂和生物燃料集成供应链的长期设计和优化模型,分析两者供应链的互相协作与影响。采用装置级的炼厂计划模型代替简单的节点投入产出模型,提高了模型的分辨率。同时采用随机规划方法对长期设计计划过程中的不确定性进行分析控制。
[Abstract]:With the increasing demand for energy in the society, the petrochemical fuel, as the main energy source, is also facing higher demand for supply and demand. At the same time, with the increasing shortage of oil today, the biofuel has become the most promising new energy for replacing traditional oil because of its environmental friendly environment, balanced geographical distribution and high value. Chain optimization plays a very important role in improving the overall production efficiency of traditional petrochemical energy, reducing processing, transportation and storage costs. At the same time, the rational use of existing refinery facilities and a reasonable design of the biofuel supply chain network can effectively improve the utilization ratio of new energy and thus further meet the requirements. From the perspective of improving the efficiency of the oil refining supply chain and the biofuel supply chain, this paper makes a detailed analysis of the research status, and makes a systematic and in-depth study on the optimization of the refining supply chain plan, the optimization of the design of the biofuel supply chain, and the supply chain aggregation. The main contents and innovation points are as follows:
1. the conditional risk value model of the refinery supply chain planning problem is proposed. It provides a new idea for the uncertainty treatment in the oil refining supply chain planning problem with the optimization of the economic indicators. The method of sample average approximation is used to determine the best risk threshold, and the robustness of the results is tested. In the selection, the statistical method is used to compromise between the accuracy and the computational efficiency. At the same time, the inherent uncertainty of the yield fluctuation is deeply excavated. An iterative algorithm combining optimization and simulation is proposed, and the satisfactory solution is obtained under the framework of the stochastic programming of the conditional risk value.
2. from the angle of production and distribution of the supply chain of the refinery, the shortcomings and shortcomings of the current oil refinery scheduling optimization and the pipeline scheduling optimization are analyzed. The integrated model of production scheduling and pipeline scheduling is proposed, which optimizes the production scheduling, oil blending, pipeline scheduling and inventory management. The integrated model can not only guarantee the feasibility of the overall optimization problem, but also greatly reduce the overall cost.
3. in view of the relationship between the supply chain of the third generation of advanced hydrocarbon biofuels and the existing refinery equipment, the design optimization model of the existing petroleum refinery has been proposed for the first time. The model also takes into account the two factors of the strategic design and tactical plan optimization of the biofuel supply chain, and takes into consideration the different techniques of the biological refinery. The operation scheme, the selection of the processing scale, the determination of the integration strategy of the traditional refinery, the distribution of biomass, the seasonality, the perishability, the distribution of the demand and the government financial subsidies. The fuzzy possibility planning method is used to optimize the uncertainty in the supply chain design optimization model, and the decision-maker can be based on the individual. The possibility, inevitability and credibility of preference selection are regarded as evaluation indicators.
4. from the point of minimization of unit cost, a mixed integer fractional programming model of advanced hydrocarbon biofuel supply chain integration has been proposed. Two specific algorithms are used to solve this optimization problem. At the same time, the specific algorithm and the general mixed integer linear programming are compared from the optimal solution, the tolerance, the calculation time and so on. The difference between this optimization problem and the difference between the unit cost minimization and the decision to minimize the total cost is analyzed in detail. A robust optimization method for the model robustness and economy is proposed to deal with the uncertainty of supply chain.
5. the long-term design and optimization model of the traditional refinery and biofuel integrated supply chain is proposed for the first time, and the cooperation and influence of the supply chain are analyzed. The resolution of the model is improved by using the device level refinery plan model instead of the simple input-output model. At the same time, the stochastic programming method is used for the long-term design plan. The uncertainty in the process is analyzed and controlled.

【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TE68

【参考文献】