转型期电力供应系统应用基本人树三步逐层建模法建模及其功能研究

发布时间：2018-06-17 07:26

本文选题：转型期 + 供应链产能管理　；参考：《系统工程理论与实践》2013年10期

【摘要】：厂网分离以来,煤电价未及时联动,电力供求失衡的电荒现象多次出现,给经济发展带来极大影响.该文应用供应链产能管理理念和系统动力学方法,在原有流率基本入树模型建模成果的基础上,针对建立符合实际因果链枝的技术难点,概括提出三步建模法,通过建立流率的关联二部分图与逐层反延伸因果链图,及两图结合,建立了转型期电力供应链产能管理系统的前期流率基本入树模型,进行了前期流率基本入树模型功能研究,建立了等阶的流图模型.且基于前期流率基本入树模型进行了煤价大幅上涨而电价不及时联动形成的因果链剖析专题分析,为基于反馈环分析的转型期电荒原因剖析及其三步对策生成打下基础.
[Abstract]:In this paper , a three - step modeling method is presented , which is based on the theory of supply chain capacity management and the system dynamics method . Based on the modeling results of the original flow rate basic tree model , a three - step modeling method is proposed . Based on the analysis of the basic input tree model of the current flow rate and the causal chain analysis of the current rate of the power supply chain capacity management system , this paper analyzes the cause and effect chain formed by the linkage between the electricity price and the electricity price , and lays a foundation for the analysis of the reasons of the electricity shortage in the period of transition based on the feedback loop analysis and the three - step countermeasures .
【作者单位】：南昌大学系统工程研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71261018,71171208)
【分类号】：F426.61;F272.92

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