基于存销比的烟草供应链补货策略研究

发布时间：2018-07-12 20:11

本文选题：烟草供应链 + 供应商管理库存(VMI)　；参考：《重庆交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：作者参与导师课题《中烟重庆烟草工商企业供应链物流建设项目》和《中烟重庆烟草商业企业供应链物流建设项目》对企业的实地调研,从中发现烟草行业正在推行存销比补货模式,但具体做法以经验为基础,非常原始且存在可优化之处。本文就是以该问题为背景,探讨解决企业面临问题的方法。首先,论文通过对供应商管理库存领域的文献进行综述,发现供应商管理库存理论与模型方面的研究成果已经相当成熟,但模型中考虑需求动态变化的情况较少,而卷烟又是一种受季节性影响后需求变化十分明显的特殊商品。这种变化使烟草企业无法精确控制库存,只能通过较高的库存量来应对需求变化,导致库存成本居高不下。所以本文结合企业实际问题进行研究,为行业内的其他企业提供借鉴和参考。其次,基于经典库存控制模型研究将多周期型存储模型加以改进。通过将供应商管理库存理论、安全库存理论以及需求预测理论与库存控制模型相结合,在基于假设的前提下,得到了以季节性需求变化为基础对存销比模型参数进行季节性调整的存销比补货模型。同时搭建了重庆烟草供应链VMI体系结构,继而在通过模型计算出补货参数的基础上,就烟草公司的实际情况分别针对单品规卷烟库存和多品规卷烟库存制定不同的补货策略,为避免因需求一时集中而产生爆仓现象。最后,本文收集到重庆烟草某分公司2011年1月~2016年6月的卷烟销售数据,分别就年销量总体变化趋势以及各年销量周期性变化规律做了分析。结合分析结果进行需求预测并将预测结果代入存销比补货模型,计算出同一季度补货参数季节性调整前后的库存补货总成本。通过对比分析得出,同一季度内利用季节性调整后的补货参数实施补货,库存补货总成本更低。
[Abstract]:The author participated in the research on the supply chain logistics construction project of Chongqing tobacco industry and commerce enterprise and the supply chain logistics construction project of Chongqing tobacco business enterprise. It is found that the tobacco industry is carrying out the mode of restocking and restocking, but the concrete practice is based on experience, which is very primitive and can be optimized. Based on this problem, this paper discusses the solutions to the problems faced by enterprises. First of all, by summarizing the literature in the field of VMI, it is found that the VMI theory and model have been quite mature, but the dynamic changes of demand are seldom considered in the model. Cigarette is a special commodity affected by seasonality. This kind of change makes the tobacco enterprise unable to control the inventory accurately, but can only cope with the change of demand through the higher inventory quantity, which results in the high inventory cost. Therefore, this paper carries on the research combining the enterprise actual problem, provides the reference and the reference for the other enterprises in the industry. Secondly, the multi-period storage model is improved based on the classical inventory control model. By combining the Vendor Management inventory Theory, the Safety inventory Theory and the demand forecasting Theory with the inventory Control Model, under the premise of hypothesis, Based on the seasonal demand change, the model of reserve-to-sell ratio restocking is obtained, which is seasonally adjusted to the parameters of the stock-to-sell ratio model. At the same time, the VMI architecture of Chongqing tobacco supply chain is set up, and then, on the basis of calculating the replenishment parameters through the model, different replenishment strategies are made for the inventory of individual and multi-product regulated cigarettes, respectively, according to the actual situation of tobacco companies. In order to avoid the sudden concentration of demand and the occurrence of warehouse explosion phenomenon. Finally, this paper collects the cigarette sales data of a branch of Chongqing Tobacco from January 2011 to June 2016, and analyzes the general trend of the annual sales volume and the regularity of the periodical change of the annual sales volume. Combined with the result of analysis, the demand forecast is carried out and the forecast result is put into the stock-to-sell ratio restocking model to calculate the total inventory restocking cost before and after the seasonal adjustment of the replenishment parameters in the same quarter. Through comparison and analysis, it is concluded that the total cost of inventory replenishment is lower by using seasonally adjusted restocking parameters in the same quarter.
【学位授予单位】：重庆交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F274;F426.8

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