基于直觉模糊层次分析法的淮北地区农产品供应链风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-07-22 12:17

【摘要】：随着市场竞争的加剧和农产品供应链理论的深入发展，传统管理思想和理论的局限性逐渐显现。近年来国家对“三农”问题的重视和农业产业化的发展，使得农产品供应链管理地位日益提升。农产品供应链的发展水平成为影响经济发展和保障人民生活水平的重要因素，已得到广泛关注。然而农产品供应链环节多、链条长、整体协作水平不高以及信息沟通不畅等问题在一定程度上造成了农产品供应链风险的增加。因此，对农产品供应链风险进行分析评价，改善农产品供应链现状、降低农产品供应链风险、加强风险防范具有极其重要的意义。本文首先对国内外关于农产品供应链风险相关文献进行了系统梳理，详细阐述了农产品供应链风险的涵义，在此基础上对几种常见的农产品供应链风险评价方法进行了比较选择，得出直觉模糊层次分析法更适合于农产品供应链风险评价问题的研究；其次，对农产品供应链中存在的风险因素进行了较为全面的了解和分析，详细阐述了农产品供应链风险的构成要素，在此基础上构建了淮北地区农产品供应链风险评价指标体系；最后，，结合淮北地区农产品供应链特点运用直觉模糊层次分析法模型进行了实证研究，通过较为准确的计算，确定了淮北地区农产品供应链中各风险因素的权重，进而针对风险大小提出了淮北地区农产品供应链风险的路径选择。通过结合淮北地区农产品供应链的实际情况，分析了当前淮北地区农产品供应链的优劣势以及存在的问题，基于风险识别和评价结果，提出了农产品供应链风险防范的路径选择。将直觉模糊层次分析法应用到农产品供应链风险评价问题上，提高了评价的准确性，为淮北及其他相似地区农产品供应链风险评价及防范，提供现实的指导和借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:With the aggravation of market competition and the further development of supply chain theory of agricultural products, the limitation of traditional management thought and theory appears gradually. In recent years, the country attaches importance to the "three rural" problems and the development of agricultural industrialization, which makes the status of supply chain management of agricultural products increasing day by day. The development level of agricultural product supply chain has become an important factor affecting economic development and ensuring people's standard of living. However, the supply chain of agricultural products has many links, long chain, low level of overall cooperation and poor communication of information. To some extent, the risk of agricultural product supply chain is increased. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze and evaluate the risk of agricultural product supply chain, improve the current situation of agricultural product supply chain, reduce the risk of agricultural product supply chain, and strengthen risk prevention. In this paper, firstly, the domestic and foreign literature on supply chain risk of agricultural products is systematically combed, and the meaning of supply chain risk of agricultural products is elaborated in detail. On this basis, several common agricultural product supply chain risk evaluation methods are compared and selected, and it is concluded that intuitive fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is more suitable for agricultural product supply chain risk evaluation. Secondly, The risk factors in the agricultural product supply chain are comprehensively understood and analyzed, and the constituent elements of the agricultural product supply chain risk are elaborated in detail. On this basis, the evaluation index system of the agricultural product supply chain risk in Huaibei region is constructed. Finally, combined with the characteristics of supply chain of agricultural products in Huaibei area, the paper makes an empirical study by using intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model, and determines the weight of each risk factor in supply chain of agricultural products in Huaibei area by more accurate calculation. And then put forward the path choice of supply chain risk of agricultural products in Huaibei area according to the size of risk. According to the actual situation of supply chain of agricultural products in Huaibei area, this paper analyzes the advantages and disadvantages and the existing problems of supply chain of agricultural products in Huaibei area, based on the risk identification and evaluation results. This paper puts forward the path choice of agricultural product supply chain risk prevention. The application of intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to the risk assessment of agricultural product supply chain improves the accuracy of evaluation and provides practical guidance and reference for the risk assessment and prevention of agricultural product supply chain in Huaibei and other similar areas.
【学位授予单位】：河北工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F323.7

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