基于节点企业状态信息的供应链风险感知和防范研究

发布时间：2018-08-01 11:16

【摘要】：供应链风险是供应链运行过程中,由于各种无法预知的不确定因素的存在,打破了供应链的正常运作,使链上各成员受到影响的状况。近年来,供应链风险事件层出不穷:“福禧腐肉”事件、南方黑芝麻糊大肠杆菌超标、东方家园破产等等,由供应链风险传导引发的供应链事件不胜枚举,因此,供应链风险管理刻不容缓,供应链风险感知和防范研究必要而紧迫。供应链风险传导是指风险源越过风险宿企业的风险阈值,借助一定的载体,沿某一路径,传给另一企业的过程,而风险通常以企业的状态异常呈现。因此,本文基于供应链风险传导机理,以节点企业的状态信息为出发点,沿供应链风险传导方向的逆方向,透过企业的状态信息,逆向挖掘供应链风险影响因素,进而感知风险,防范风险。本文运用系统理论、风险管理理论等,研究供应链风险产生和传导机理。关于风险感知,首先以节点企业的状态信息为基础,提出了描述供应链节点企业状态信息的三维结构模型,即企业能力维、服务水平维、行业环境维,沿供应链风险传导方向的逆方向挖掘供应链风险影响因素(本文将其定义为风险感知因素),构建了供应链风险感知因素指标体系,归纳出供应链风险感知机理。其次,为了进一步研究供应链节点企业的状态与供应链风险的关系,借助解释结构模型,厘清了供应链风险感知因素间的复杂关系,并运用因子分析法对风险指标赋予权重,找出供应链风险的关键影响因素,最后,根据供应链风险感知结果,制定了风险防范措施。具体研究成果有以下几个方面:(1)在梳理其他学者关于供应链风险感知和防范的研究成果的基础上,找到本文的切入点,基于节点企业状态信息的供应链风险感知和防范。(2)根据供应链风险产生和传导机理,将节点企业状态信息分为三个维度,即企业能力维、服务水平维、行业环境维,其中,企业能力属于企业内部的属性,服务水平反映了企业形象和信誉,属于企业外部的属性,行业环境反映了企业所处的外部环境。构建了基于节点企业状态信息的三维结构模型,并对每一维度展开风险挖掘、构建风险感知指标体系、归纳出基于节点企业状态信息的供应链风险感知机理。(3)借助解释结构模型对风险感知指标进行定性的层次分析,厘清各指标因素间的关系,验证感知指标体系的合理性,进而找出供应链风险的根本影响因素;接着引入因子分析,以食品供应链为例,对指标赋予权重,进行定量分析,找出影响供应链节点企业风险的关键因素的同时,验证和修正风险感知指标体系。(4)根据供应链风险感知过程,制定风险防范流程;结合供应链风险产生和传导机理,归纳供应链风险防范机理;综合解释结构模型及实证分析的结果,提出相应的风险防范措施。
[Abstract]:Supply chain risk is the existence of various unpredictable uncertain factors in the course of supply chain operation, which breaks the normal operation of supply chain and affects the members of the chain. In recent years, the supply chain risk events emerge in endlessly: "Fuxi carrion" event, the south black sesame paste Escherichia coli exceeds the standard, the oriental home goes bankrupt and so on, the supply chain event caused by the supply chain risk conduction is too numerous to enumerate, therefore, Supply chain risk management is urgent, the research of supply chain risk perception and prevention is necessary and urgent. Supply chain risk transmission refers to the process by which the risk source passes over the risk threshold of the enterprise and passes to another enterprise along a certain path with the help of a certain carrier, and the risk is usually presented as the abnormal state of the enterprise. Therefore, based on the supply chain risk transmission mechanism, this paper takes the state information of the node enterprises as the starting point, along the reverse direction of the supply chain risk transmission direction, through the enterprise state information, reverse mining supply chain risk influencing factors. Then perceive the risk, guard against the risk. In this paper, the system theory and risk management theory are used to study the mechanism of supply chain risk generation and transmission. As for risk perception, firstly, based on the state information of nodal enterprises, a three-dimensional structural model is proposed to describe the state information of supply chain nodal enterprises, that is, enterprise capability dimension, service level dimension, industry environment dimension, and so on. The reverse direction of supply chain risk transmission direction is used to excavate supply chain risk influencing factors (which is defined as risk perception factor in this paper), the index system of supply chain risk perception factor is constructed, and the mechanism of supply chain risk perception is summed up. Secondly, in order to further study the relationship between supply chain risk and supply chain risk, this paper clarifies the complex relationship between supply chain risk perception factors by means of the explanatory structure model, and gives weight to the risk index by factor analysis. The key influencing factors of supply chain risk are found out. Finally, according to the results of supply chain risk perception, risk prevention measures are established. The specific research results are as follows: (1) on the basis of combing the research results of other scholars on supply chain risk perception and prevention, find the breakthrough point of this paper. Supply chain risk perception and prevention based on node enterprise state information. (2) according to supply chain risk generation and transmission mechanism, the node enterprise state information is divided into three dimensions, namely, enterprise capability dimension, service level dimension, industry environment dimension, among them, The enterprise capability belongs to the attribute of the enterprise inside, the service level reflects the image and the prestige of the enterprise, belongs to the attribute of the external enterprise, and the industry environment reflects the external environment of the enterprise. A three-dimensional structure model based on the state information of nodal enterprises is constructed, and risk mining is carried out for each dimension, and a risk perception index system is constructed. Induces the supply chain risk perception mechanism based on the node enterprise state information. (3) with the help of the explanatory structure model to qualitatively analyze the risk perception index, clarify the relationship between the various index factors, verify the rationality of the perception index system. Then find out the basic factors of supply chain risk, then introduce factor analysis, take food supply chain as an example, give weight to the index, carry out quantitative analysis, find out the key factors that affect the risk of supply chain node enterprises, at the same time, Verify and revise the index system of risk perception. (4) according to the process of risk perception in supply chain, establish the process of risk prevention, combined with the mechanism of risk generation and transmission in supply chain, sum up the mechanism of risk prevention in supply chain; Based on the results of the structural model and empirical analysis, the corresponding risk prevention measures are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：山东理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F274

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