第四方物流企业风险评价和分析

发布时间：2018-08-01 13:38

【摘要】：在对企业自身竞争力要求日益提高、市场竞争进一步激烈的大背景下，传统的、依托企业自身物流的运作模式已经无法适应企业的发展步伐。第三方物流的诞生，确实在本质上帮助企业解决供应链物流问题，但受综合技能、全球拓展能力以及集成技术限制，很难满足一些企业特别是大型企业的物流需求。同时，第三方物流缺乏对资源的整合能力。在这样一个大的背景下，第四方物流应运而生。本文以第四方物流、风别识别、风险管理、风险防控、风险评价等理论作为研究基础，采用文献评述法、多学科交叉研究法、系统分析法、因果分析法、模型分析法、定量与定性相结合的研究方法、理论与实证相结合的方法，深入分析影响第四方物流的风险因素，并从物流运作模式着手研究，建立科学合理的风险评估模型，做出正确评估，及时建立风险防控机制，采取切实可行的风险防控手段，确保我国第四方物流能够有效控制风险并得以健康发展。本文的主要内容及研究框架如下：第1章绪论。从本文研究背景、现实意义出发，梳理当前国内外关于第四方物流风险主要研究成果，提出本文的研究方法，并介绍本文的研究内容及框架。第2章第四方物流相关理论概述。分析第四方物流产生的原因，提出第四方物流内涵、概念，总结第四方物流的特征，，分析当前第四方物流的运作模式。第3章第四方物流的风险分析。从企业风险的特点和分类、风险识别方法开始，循序渐进提出第四方物流业务风险形成机理以及第四方物流的风险防控。第4章风险测度模型及指标构建。逐一介绍风险评估方法，包括增长曲线方法、logit方法以及层次分析法（AHP），并对各方法的适用性和合理性进行分析比较。最终选择AHP方法构建风险评价模型，并提出第四方物流企业风险度量的层次划分及指标。第5章基于吉林省国华物流集团有限公司的案例分析。根据吉林省国华物流集团有限公司相关信息，建立风险评价指标体现，通过采用层次分析法和模糊综合评价方法，对吉林省国华物流集团有限公司的风险状况进行评价。通过分析得出，吉林省国华物流集团有限公司处于一般风险状态，虽然该公司加强对风险的预防和控制，但受内外部因素影响，使得该公司运作仍未达到理想状态，处于一般风险状态与该公司的现实情况基本相符。最后是本文的结论。
[Abstract]:Under the background of increasing demands on enterprises' own competitiveness and further fierce market competition, the traditional operation mode of relying on enterprises' own logistics has been unable to adapt to the pace of development of enterprises. The birth of third party logistics (TPL) really helps enterprises solve supply chain logistics problems in essence, but it is difficult to meet the logistics needs of some enterprises, especially large enterprises, because of the constraints of comprehensive skills, global expansion ability and integrated technology. At the same time, third party logistics lacks the ability to integrate resources. In such a big background, the fourth party logistics came into being. In this paper, the fourth party logistics, wind identification, risk management, risk prevention and control, risk evaluation and other theories as the basis, using literature review method, multidisciplinary cross-research method, system analysis, causality analysis, model analysis, Quantitative and qualitative research methods, theoretical and empirical methods, in-depth analysis of the impact of the fourth party logistics risk factors, and from the logistics operation model to establish a scientific and reasonable risk assessment model, to make a correct assessment. The mechanism of risk prevention and control should be established in time, and the feasible means of risk prevention and control should be adopted to ensure that the fourth party logistics of our country can effectively control the risk and develop healthily. The main contents and research framework of this paper are as follows: chapter 1 introduction. Based on the background and practical significance of this paper, this paper reviews the main research results of the fourth party logistics risk at home and abroad, puts forward the research methods of this paper, and introduces the research content and framework of this paper. Chapter 2 summarizes the theory of fourth party logistics. This paper analyzes the causes of the fourth party logistics, puts forward the connotation and concept of the fourth party logistics, summarizes the characteristics of the fourth party logistics, and analyzes the current operation mode of the fourth party logistics. The third chapter is the risk analysis of the fourth party logistics. Starting with the characteristics and classification of enterprise risk and the risk identification method, the formation mechanism of the fourth party logistics business risk and the risk prevention and control of the fourth party logistics are put forward step by step. Chapter 4 risk measurement model and index construction. This paper introduces the risk assessment methods one by one, including the growth curve method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and analyzes and compares the applicability and rationality of each method. Finally, the AHP method is chosen to construct the risk evaluation model, and the hierarchical division and index of the fourth party logistics enterprise risk measurement are put forward. Chapter 5 is based on the case study of Jilin Guohua Logistics Group Co., Ltd. According to the relevant information of Guohua Logistics Group Co., Ltd in Jilin Province, the risk evaluation index is established, and the risk status of Guohua Logistics Group Co., Ltd in Jilin Province is evaluated by using the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Through analysis, it is concluded that Jilin Guohua Logistics Group Co., Ltd. is in a general risk state. Although the company strengthens the prevention and control of risk, it is affected by internal and external factors, which makes the operation of the company still not reach the ideal state. In a general state of risk and the company's reality is basically in line with the situation. Finally, the conclusion of this paper is given.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F259.23;F272.3

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