新产品上市阶段供应链运作的鲁棒决策分析

发布时间：2018-08-05 18:56

【摘要】：创新是企业发展的永恒主题，成功推出新产品、新服务与新解决方案则是企业发展的核心诉求。新产品上市阶段作为成功推出新产品的关键环节，是典型的合作型工作链，需要企业内各部门及供应链各企业节点的参与与合作。然而新产品固有的创新性造成的市场信息缺失使得上市阶段运作面临巨大的风险和决策困难，可诱使供应链成员采取鲁棒的决策行为。基于此，本文研究新产品上市阶段企业鲁棒决策行为下的供应链运作管理问题。通过对新产品需求信息缺失特征及企业鲁棒决策行为刻画，揭示鲁棒行为下的新产品供应链决策特点，进而紧紧围绕新产品上市阶段的重要决策，设计供应链合作激励机制与管理干预举措，优化新产品供应链，促进新产品成功推出。具体做了以下几个方面的工作：首先，利用分布鲁棒方法，建立基本的新产品供应链，构建本文的研究基础。通过与需求分布信息完全已知的传统供应链的数值分析结果比较，揭示出信息缺失的新产品供应链的特点。并且，结合已有实证研究结果提出了提高新产品上市成功率的思路：加强零售商激励、加强信息获取、加强营销和运营的协调，用于解决以下新产品上市的渠道、铺货、定价和订货等具体决策问题。面对经销商因承担较大销售风险不愿意大量铺货，难以建立起新产品的销售渠道的现实问题，文章在新产品上市的现行操作模式基础上，设计了“VMI+寄售+返利”的供应链契约，研究了面对新产品市场信息缺失，制造商和零售商都存在鲁棒决策行为的供应链。通过定理证明了该契约能实现零售商绩效改进的同时激励零售商制定较低零售价格，从而有利于快速有效地建立起新产品销售渠道，支持新产品入市，且发现该供应链具有很强的稳定性和适应性。面对新产品市场信息缺失、扩散不确定造成的上市阶段铺货决策困难，文章试图通过多个市场预测来更准确地描述新产品上市的需求，构建了基于多个市场预测的新产品铺货决策模型，并以CVaR风险指标定量化地度量了铺货决策的风险，以最低期望收益为约束，利用worst-case鲁棒优化方法研究了对每种预测出现的可能性完全无法估计以及能粗略估计这两种情况下的最优铺货决策。数值分析通过将多市场预测与单一市场预测、及加权平均策略下的铺货和绩效比较发现鲁棒决策行为下的铺货决策相对保守，但在防范新产品上市后的小概率事件风险上有优势，且能保证在各种新产品市场情形下获得平稳回报，进一步还发现了该方法的有效性和鲁棒性。在“营销和运营相互协调”的研究视角下，文章还研究了有鲁棒决策行为的零售商对新产品的定价订货进行联合决策的问题，通过优化求解得到新产品鲁棒最优定价与订货决策，及期望收益的上下界。研究发现在鲁棒决策行为下，与单一决策相比，联合决策方式推出新产品能带来巨大的绩效改进，通过运营和营销的相互调整和配合也使得新产品供应链更稳定，能更有效地应对上市过程中的不确定性。最后，在确定了鲁棒联合决策对信息缺失的新产品供应链的价值基础上，结合营销学实证研究结果，刻画了同时存在价格参考效应和价格质量效应的新产品价格需求函数，并进一步分析了不同创新度新产品的消费者价格心理特点。研究结果发现了适合不同创新度新产品的营销策略，从理论上印证了营销实证方法得到的结论，，同时发现消费者的参考价格对于新产品上市的重要性。随着对新产品上市供应链运作的需求特征、风险来源、决策行为的进一步认识，以及不确定性鲁棒决策理论方法自身的进一步完善，新产品上市管理中的问题必将得到更深入的关注和研究。
[Abstract]:Innovation is the eternal theme of enterprise development, the successful introduction of new products, new services and new solutions is the core demand of enterprise development. As the key link of the successful launch of new products, the new product listing stage is a typical cooperative work chain, which requires the participation and cooperation of all departments in the enterprise and the enterprise nodes of the supply chain. However, the new production is new. The lack of market information inherent in the product makes the operation of the market facing huge risks and decision-making difficulties, which can induce the supply chain members to take robust decision-making behavior. Based on this, this paper studies the operation management of the supply chain under the robust decision-making behavior of the new product in the market stage. The characteristics and the characterization of the firm's robust decision-making behavior reveal the characteristics of the supply chain decision under the robust behavior, and then closely around the important decision of the new product listing stage, design the supply chain cooperation incentive mechanism and management intervention measures, optimize the new product supply chain, and promote the successful introduction of new products.
First, we use the distributed robust method to establish the basic new product supply chain and build the research foundation of this paper. Through the comparison of the numerical analysis results of the traditional supply chain with the fully known distribution information, it reveals the characteristics of the new product supply chain with the lack of information, and puts forward the improvement of the new product listing with the results of the existing empirical research. The idea of the success rate: strengthen the retailer incentive, strengthen the information acquisition, strengthen the coordination of marketing and operation, and solve the specific decision problems of the following new products, such as the marketing channels, the pricing and ordering.
On the basis of the current operation mode of new product listing, the supply chain contract of "VMI+ consignment + rebate" is designed on the basis of the current operation mode of new product listing. The supply chain of robust decision-making behavior proves that the contract can improve the performance of the retailer and encourage retailers to make lower retail prices, which is conducive to the rapid and effective establishment of new product sales channels, support new products into the market, and find that the supply chain has a strong stability and adaptability.
In the face of the lack of information in the new product market and the uncertainty caused by the uncertainty of diffusion, the article tries to describe the demand of the new product more accurately by multiple market forecasts, and constructs a new product decision model based on multiple market forecasting, and quantificationally measures the risk of the decision making with the CVaR risk index. With the minimum expected return as the constraint, the worst-case robust optimization method is used to study the optimal decision making for the two cases in which the possibility of each prediction is completely unestimated and the rough estimate can be made. The numerical analysis is found by comparing the multi market forecast with the single market forecast and the comparison of the performance of the goods under the weighted average strategy. The decision making of the robust decision is relatively conservative, but it has the advantage in preventing the risk of small probability event after the new product is listed, and can guarantee the stable return in the market situation of various new products. Further, the effectiveness and robustness of the method are further found.
In the perspective of "coordination of marketing and operation", the article also studies the problem of joint decision making by retailers with robust decision-making behavior for the pricing and ordering of new products. By optimizing the solution, the robust optimal pricing and ordering decision of new products and the upper and lower bounds of expected returns are obtained. Compared with the decision making, the introduction of new products by joint decision making can bring great performance improvement. Through the adjustment and cooperation of operation and marketing, the new product supply chain is more stable, and the uncertainty in the process of listing can be more effectively dealt with.
Finally, on the basis of determining the value of the new product supply chain with the lack of information on the robust joint decision, combined with the results of the empirical study of marketing, it depicts the price demand function of the new product which has the price reference effect and the price quality effect simultaneously, and further analyzes the psychological characteristics of the consumer price of different new products. The result shows the marketing strategy suitable for new products with different innovation degrees. It proves the conclusion of the empirical method of marketing in theory, and finds the importance of the reference price of the consumer to the new product.
With the demand characteristics of the supply chain operation of the new product, the further understanding of the risk sources, the decision behavior, and the further improvement of the uncertain robust decision-making theory, the problems in the management of the new products will be paid more attention and research.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F274;F273.2

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