不同促销模式下零售商需求预测精确性的影响研究

发布时间：2018-08-29 12:59

【摘要】：由一个风险中性供应商和一个风险规避零售商构成的供应链中,需求随机且受价格和促销努力的影响,在销售季节前,零售商获取一个需求预测信号。考虑零售商促销和供应商促销两种模式,得到最优零售价、批发价和促销努力水平,分析需求预测精确度对供应链成员决策和效用的影响,并对两种促销模式下的决策及效用进行对比分析。研究发现,在两种模式下提高预测精确度能够增加零售商效用;在零售商促销模式下,只有当促销努力有效性较高时,提高预测精确度才能够增加供应商效用;在供应商促销模式下,预测精确度提升对供应商总是不利的;当预测精确度较低(高)时,零售商与供应商都偏好于供应商(零售商)促销模式;当预测精确度处于中等水平时,会发生促销模式偏好的冲突。
[Abstract]:In a supply chain composed of a risk-neutral supplier and a risk-averse retailer, the demand is random and affected by the price and promotion efforts. Before the sales season, the retailer acquires a demand prediction signal. Considering the two models of retailer promotion and supplier promotion, the optimal retail price, wholesale price and promotion effort are obtained, and the influence of demand prediction accuracy on the decision and utility of supply chain members is analyzed. And the decision and utility under the two promotion modes are compared and analyzed. It is found that increasing prediction accuracy can increase retailer utility in two modes, while in retailer promotion mode, it can increase supplier utility only when the effectiveness of promotional efforts is high. In the supplier promotion mode, the improvement of prediction accuracy is always disadvantageous to the supplier, when the prediction accuracy is low (high), both the retailer and the supplier prefer the supplier (retailer) promotion mode. When the prediction accuracy is in the medium level, there will be a conflict of preference of the promotion mode.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71371146) 武汉大学人文社会科学青年学者团队建设计划资助项目(Whu2016013)
【分类号】：F274;F724.2

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