基于风险的三级供应链契约协调研究

发布时间：2018-11-23 19:46

【摘要】：随着时代的进步与发展,“供应链”一词正逐渐进入人们视线中,并呈愈演愈烈的趋势。供应链管理逐渐引起企业家及研究人员的重视,成为研究的一个重点领域。供应链并不是一个简简单单的网络系统,它涵盖了供应商、分销商与零售商等众多参与成员,各成员之间关系错综杂乱。在如此复杂的条件下,如何实现供应链协调,促进链上各参与者相互配合,从而提高供应链总体效益成为了供应链管理的一个重点难点。研究表明,供应链契约对交易双方的行为起一定的激励和约束作用,可以很好协调各参与者。供应链参与成员通过签订契约,可以从总体利益的角度考虑,做出最有利于整体的选择。本文以三级供应链系统为研究对象,主要包含了上游的供应企业、中游的分销企业和下游的零售企业三个交易主体,假设消费者需求具有随机性,研究了系统在不同契约组合中如何达到协调的问题。这里讨论三个组合:收益共享与回购契约组合;回购与期权契约组合;收益共享与期权契约组合。首先建立风险中性的契约组合模型,给出了链条整体的最优订货量,进而讨论了包含三个交易主体的供应链实现协调的方法。然后分析了当链上三个成员企业达到协调状态时,他们各自的利益分配情况。考虑到现实中诸多不确定因素,本文在三级供应链模型中引入风险因素,假设下游企业是风险偏爱的,中游企业是风险厌恶的,构建了三种不同组合下的契约模型,分析了此时链条下游零售商的收益与其风险偏爱之间的关系,以及链条中游分销商的收益与其风险厌恶之间的关系。并进一步分析了系统协调问题,给出了风险偏好下,当交易三方的决策能够实现供应链总体最优时需要满足的条件。近年来各种突发事故频繁出现,消费者需求受其影响产生或大或小的变化,需求影响生产及销售必然也会对供应链正常运作造成影响。这里分别建立了不同情形下基于突发事件的上游、中游及下游三个交易方的利润模型。当突发事件的发生严重影响了原供应链订货量时,无论增加还是减少订货量,必然会造成原供应链失调。但若在原基础上适当调整各相关参数,便可帮助供应链成功解决突发事件的影响。最后通过数值分析验证了相关结论。
[Abstract]:With the progress and development of the times, the word "supply chain" is gradually coming into the sight of people. Supply chain management has gradually attracted the attention of entrepreneurs and researchers, and has become a key area of research. Supply chain is not a simple network system, it covers suppliers, distributors and retailers and many other participating members. Under such complicated conditions, how to realize the coordination of supply chain and promote the cooperation of all participants in the chain, so as to improve the overall efficiency of supply chain has become a key difficulty in supply chain management. The research shows that supply chain contract plays an incentive and restraint role on the behavior of both parties, and it can coordinate the participants well. By signing contracts, supply chain participants can consider the overall interests and make the best choices. This paper takes the three-level supply chain system as the research object, mainly includes the upstream supply enterprise, the middle flow distribution enterprise and the downstream retail enterprise, assumes that the consumer demand is random. In this paper, the problem of how to achieve coordination in different contract combinations is studied. This paper discusses three combinations: the combination of income sharing and repurchase contracts; the combination of repurchase and options contracts; and the combination of income sharing and options contracts. Firstly, the risk-neutral contract combination model is established, and the optimal order quantity of the whole chain is given, and the method of coordination of supply chain with three transaction agents is discussed. Then, the paper analyzes the distribution of benefits when the three member enterprises in the chain reach the coordination state. Considering many uncertain factors in reality, this paper introduces risk factors into the three-level supply chain model, assumes that downstream enterprises are risk preference, and mid-stream enterprises are risk-averse, and constructs three kinds of contract models under different combinations. This paper analyzes the relationship between the profit of the chain downstream retailer and its risk preference, and the relationship between the profit of the retailer in the middle of the chain and its risk aversion. Furthermore, the system coordination problem is analyzed, and the conditions that need to be satisfied when the transaction tripartite decision can realize the overall optimal supply chain under risk preference are given. In recent years, a variety of unexpected accidents occur frequently, and the consumer demand is influenced by the influence of it. The influence of the demand on the production and sales will inevitably affect the normal operation of the supply chain. In this paper, the profit models of upstream, middle and downstream traders based on unexpected events are established. When the unexpected events seriously affect the order quantity of the original supply chain, whether the order quantity increases or decreases, it will inevitably lead to the original supply chain imbalance. However, if the relevant parameters are adjusted properly on the original basis, it can help the supply chain to successfully solve the impact of unexpected events. Finally, the relevant conclusions are verified by numerical analysis.
【学位授予单位】：北京建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F274

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