基于系统动力学的食品供应链抗风险模式研究
发布时间：2018-12-21 10:35
【摘要】：近年来,我国食品安全问题频发,已经引起了一定程度的社会恐慌。食品安全问题主要来自于食品供应链,解决食品安全问题的主要方法之一就是控制食品供应链风险,提高食品供应链的抗风险能力,从而降低风险发生率,保证食品安全。本论文运用演化博弈理论、系统动力学理论和vensim仿真方法,从分析食品供应链系统的特征和系统风险管理行为的动力学特征着手,基于供应链信息共享应对和集中应对两个视角考虑食品供应链抗风险模式。 文章首先对“牛鞭效应”这一食品供应链风险形成原因及其与食品供应链风险的关系进行了分析,建立了食品供应链订货和库存控制系统的因果关系图和动力学流图,分别对“利用在途库存信息”和“供应链信息共享”两种信息技术对食品供应链“牛鞭效应”的影响进行了动力学建模,结合模型说明了利用现代信息技术对食品供应链风险的影响,进而提出了基于信息共享的食品供应链抗风险模式。在文章的第四部分建立了一个供应商和一个生产加工商之间基于“共享”和“不共享”两种策略的演化博弈模型,证明在假设条件下博弈模型存在(共享,共享)和(不共享,不共享)两种演化均衡,而当政府惩罚力度大于其选择不共享的超额收益时,只存在(共享,共享)一种均衡状态。接着利用vensim软件对各个影响因素与博弈结果的相关关系进行了仿真,仿真结果表明在食品供应链信息共享博弈中,双方实现共享的概率受到共享成本、共享所能获得的收益、政府惩罚力度以及企业的信息吸收与溢出能力的影响。与信息共享模式不同,文章还提出了以核心企业为主体、以链内风险管理小组为主体和以链外第三方机构为主体的三种主体集中应对供应链风险的运作模式,分析了他们的运作流程和优缺点,指出以链内专门小组为主体的模式能够克服其他两种模式的不足,是一种比较好的抗风险模式。本论文的研究对于从整体把握食品供应链运作流程、识别供应链的薄弱环节,提高整个系统的协调程度、信息共享程度和整个供应链的效率和效益,降低食品供应链脆弱性具有重大意义,从而规避食品供应链风险,保证食品安全。
[Abstract]:In recent years, food safety problems in China occur frequently, which has caused a certain degree of social panic. The food safety problem mainly comes from the food supply chain. One of the main ways to solve the food safety problem is to control the food supply chain risk and improve the anti-risk ability of the food supply chain so as to reduce the risk rate and ensure the food safety. In this paper, evolutionary game theory, system dynamics theory and vensim simulation method are used to analyze the characteristics of food supply chain system and the dynamic characteristics of system risk management behavior. Based on the two perspectives of supply chain information sharing response and centralized response, the anti-risk model of food supply chain is considered. This paper first analyzes the cause of "bullwhip effect" and its relationship with food supply chain risk, and establishes the causality diagram and dynamic flow diagram of food supply chain ordering and inventory control system. The effects of "inventory information in transit" and "information sharing in supply chain" on "bullwhip effect" in food supply chain were modeled. Combined with the model, the influence of modern information technology on food supply chain risk is explained, and the anti-risk model of food supply chain based on information sharing is put forward. In the fourth part of the paper, an evolutionary game model between a supplier and a producer is established based on the two strategies of "sharing" and "not sharing". It is proved that the game model exists (share, share) and (do not share) under hypothetical conditions. Two kinds of evolutionary equilibrium are not shared, but when the punishment of government is greater than the excess income that the government chooses not to share, there is only one equilibrium state (sharing, sharing). Then we use vensim software to simulate the relationship between the influence factors and the game results. The simulation results show that in the information sharing game of food supply chain, the probability of both sides to achieve the sharing is shared cost, share the income that can be obtained. The influence of government punishment and the ability of information absorption and spillover of enterprises. Different from the information sharing mode, the paper also puts forward three kinds of operation modes, which are the core enterprise as the main body, the risk management group in the chain as the main body and the third party organization outside the chain as the main body to deal with the supply chain risk. This paper analyzes their operation flow and their advantages and disadvantages, and points out that the model with the special group in the chain as the main body can overcome the shortcomings of the other two models and is a better anti-risk model. The research of this paper is aimed at grasping the operation process of food supply chain, identifying the weak link of the supply chain, improving the coordination degree of the whole system, the degree of information sharing and the efficiency and benefit of the whole supply chain. It is of great significance to reduce the vulnerability of food supply chain so as to avoid the risk of food supply chain and ensure food safety.
【学位授予单位】：天津科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F326.6;N941.3
本文编号：2388791
[Abstract]:In recent years, food safety problems in China occur frequently, which has caused a certain degree of social panic. The food safety problem mainly comes from the food supply chain. One of the main ways to solve the food safety problem is to control the food supply chain risk and improve the anti-risk ability of the food supply chain so as to reduce the risk rate and ensure the food safety. In this paper, evolutionary game theory, system dynamics theory and vensim simulation method are used to analyze the characteristics of food supply chain system and the dynamic characteristics of system risk management behavior. Based on the two perspectives of supply chain information sharing response and centralized response, the anti-risk model of food supply chain is considered. This paper first analyzes the cause of "bullwhip effect" and its relationship with food supply chain risk, and establishes the causality diagram and dynamic flow diagram of food supply chain ordering and inventory control system. The effects of "inventory information in transit" and "information sharing in supply chain" on "bullwhip effect" in food supply chain were modeled. Combined with the model, the influence of modern information technology on food supply chain risk is explained, and the anti-risk model of food supply chain based on information sharing is put forward. In the fourth part of the paper, an evolutionary game model between a supplier and a producer is established based on the two strategies of "sharing" and "not sharing". It is proved that the game model exists (share, share) and (do not share) under hypothetical conditions. Two kinds of evolutionary equilibrium are not shared, but when the punishment of government is greater than the excess income that the government chooses not to share, there is only one equilibrium state (sharing, sharing). Then we use vensim software to simulate the relationship between the influence factors and the game results. The simulation results show that in the information sharing game of food supply chain, the probability of both sides to achieve the sharing is shared cost, share the income that can be obtained. The influence of government punishment and the ability of information absorption and spillover of enterprises. Different from the information sharing mode, the paper also puts forward three kinds of operation modes, which are the core enterprise as the main body, the risk management group in the chain as the main body and the third party organization outside the chain as the main body to deal with the supply chain risk. This paper analyzes their operation flow and their advantages and disadvantages, and points out that the model with the special group in the chain as the main body can overcome the shortcomings of the other two models and is a better anti-risk model. The research of this paper is aimed at grasping the operation process of food supply chain, identifying the weak link of the supply chain, improving the coordination degree of the whole system, the degree of information sharing and the efficiency and benefit of the whole supply chain. It is of great significance to reduce the vulnerability of food supply chain so as to avoid the risk of food supply chain and ensure food safety.
【学位授予单位】：天津科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F326.6;N941.3
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