大型展览活动人群智能服务管理研究

发布时间：2018-01-16 08:26

本文关键词：大型展览活动人群智能服务管理研究　出处：《复旦大学》2010年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】： 近年,随着我国经济文化事业的快速发展和综合国力的进一步增强,我国举办的各类大型展览活动越来越多,例如广交会、世博会等,这些活动日益成为社会、企业和广大民众关注的焦点。大型展览活动参与人数多、社会反响大,一般具有人群密集性、人群不可预测性和人群分布不均匀性等特征,安全和服务问题突出。切实加强大型展览活动人群服务管理能力、预防和处理人群事故是达到高性能的安全保障和高质量的服务效果的重要内容。以2010年上海世博会为契机,我国开始逐步加强大型展览活动人群服务管理体系的建设,中央和地方都根据各自的特征建立了相应的大型展览活动管理组织机构,全国性的人群服务管理体系框架已初步形成,并且在人群事故预防和人群服务实践中已经发挥着很重要的作用。然而,目前的人群服务管理体系的建设主要是从宏观层面进行的,它只能表明大型展览活动人群服务管理已经引起政府相关层面的重视。面对大型展览活动人群问题的突发性和不确定性,我国现有的人群服务管理体系在人群服务、人群事故的处置和管理上还存在着许多问题,难以有效地应对各种人群问题。必须从解决微观层面的问题尤其是难题入手,对相关的理论、技术和方法进行创新性地研究,给出最优的解决方案,从而全面提高我国大型展览活动人群服务管理水平。本文综合通信和计算机科学、管理科学、运筹学等学科,集成移动通信、情景感知、系统仿真等技术,系统地研究大型展览活动人群智能服务管理问题,揭示人群服务管理中微观和宏观层面之间的内在联系,探索大型展览活动人群智能服务管理规律和机理。根据游客参观全过程的服务需求分析,从参观计划、参观协调、服务保障和应急反应的决策问题着手,研究了大型展览活动人群智能服务管理中的微观层面的关键问题。各章主要内容如下：第一章绪论,介绍了本文的研究背景、研究内容、研究意义及论文结构。第二章文献综述,概括了大型展览活动人群智能服务管理相关概念,从情景感知系统在游览活动中的应用、人群运动和大型展览活动人群服务运营三个方面对大型展览活动人群智能服务管理的相关研究进行了综述,并在此基础上,进行了简要的评述,指出了目前大型展览活动人群服务管理的研究不足。第三章,从系统论的角度研究了大型展览活动人群智能服务管理问题。首先,提出了大型展览活动人群智能服务系统的定义,介绍了系统的基本维度,包括系统的要素、系统的目标、系统的结构、系统的状态和系统的环境,阐述了系统信息感知与发布技术。然后,提出需要深入研究的系统控制与优化问题,并且建立了大型展览活动服务准备、服务实施和应急控制三位一体面向全过程的综合服务运营管理体系。最后,在人群服务需求分析的基础上设计了大型展览活动人群智能服务决策支持系统,概述了系统的整体结构,介绍了系统的主要功能,并提出了系统数据库的设计构想。第四章,从游客参观行程计划的角度研究了时问依赖网络中游客个性化参观行程设计问题。考虑到人群拥挤、突发事件和道路类型对出行时间的影响,提出了基于离散时间的时间序列图模型,通过时间序列图模型表示交通网络中不同时间不同路段的出行时间。在此基础上,提出了两种既符合大型展览活动交通实际,又符合游客个人偏好的参观行程设计方案,即满足游客单日和多日参观计划需求约束下的最优行程设计,分别建立了相应的混合整数规划模型,设计了基于网络计划和动态规划思想的标号算法。第五章,从游客参观协调的角度研究了基于Multi-agent的人群服务协调控制问题。首先,设计了基于Multi-agent的人群智能服务系统,概述了系统的基本结构,详细介绍了Multi-agent系统的建模思路。然后,提出了多阶段动态协调控制方法,该方法在引入帕累托最优概念的基础上,通过游客总体满意度下的择优选择机制为游客实时动态的决定下一参观目标点的选择,使用Logit模型进行参观路线的选择。最后,以上海世博会为背景,设计了基于Multi-agent系统的仿真试验和三种对比方案,对协调控制方法进行了检验和灵敏度分析。第六章,从服务保障的角度研究了大型展览活动移动资源调度问题。介绍了移动资源调度工作的概念模型,总结了移动资源调度的过程。在此基础上,针对大型展览活动中服务资源需求的多样性和预测的资源需求情形,研究了考虑未来需求的多资源调度问题,建立了基于期望成本的多资源调度模型,基于图论中网络优化和线性规划优化思想,设计了多资源分类调度的启发式算法,并分析了算法复杂性。第七章,从突发事件应急反应的角度研究了大型展览活动人群疏散问题。介绍了大型展览活动中的突发事件,分析了突发事件的特征,对人群事故发生机理进行了初步的探索。考虑到大型展览活动突发事件应急疏散时,常常出现多源点同时需要疏散,且有多个疏散汇点的情形,研究了多源多汇和有容量限制条件下的应急疏散问题,建立了基于路径的网络流控制疏散模型,设计了基于关键优选路径进行网络流控制的启发式算法,并分析了算法的复杂性。最后,在结论部分,对论文的工作进行了总结,并对未来的研究加以展望。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the further enhancement of the rapid development of China's economic and cultural undertakings and the comprehensive national strength, China held various large-scale exhibition activities more and more, such as Canton, World Expo, these activities become the focus of society, enterprises and the public. A large exhibition participation number, social repercussions, generally has a dense population the crowd, unpredictable uneven distribution and population, safety and service problems. To strengthen the crowd service management in large-scale exhibitions, prevention and treatment of crowd accidents is an important part of security to achieve high performance and high quality service.
In 2010, Shanghai in World Expo as an opportunity, China began to gradually strengthen the construction of large-scale exhibition crowd service management system, the central and local governments according to their own characteristics of a large exhibition management organization the crowd service management system framework nationwide have been formed, and in the practice of prevention and crowd service has been in the accident play a very important role. However, the construction of the current system of crowd service management is mainly from the macro level, it only shows that crowd service management in large-scale exhibitions has caused the government level attention. Facing the problem of sudden large-scale exhibition activities of the crowd and uncertainty of the existing population service management system in China the crowd service, disposal and management of the crowd accidents still exist many problems, it is difficult to effectively deal with all kinds of people must be from the problem. In order to solve the problems at the micro level, especially the difficult problems, we will make an innovative research on the related theories, technologies and methods, and give the best solutions, so as to comprehensively improve the crowd service management level of large-scale exhibitions in China.
This paper comprehensive communication and computer science, management science, operational research, integrated mobile communication, situational awareness, system simulation technology, systematically study the crowd intelligent service management in large-scale exhibitions, to reveal the internal relationship between the micro and macro level crowd service management in the exploration of large-scale exhibition crowd intelligent service management rules and mechanism according to the analysis of the whole process. Visitors service needs, visit the coordination from the visit plan, to decision-making service security and emergency response, of large-scale exhibition crowd intelligent micro level key problems in service management. The main contents of each chapter are as follows:
The first chapter is the introduction, introduces the research background, research contents, research significance and the structure of the thesis. The second chapter is the literature review, summarizes the related concepts of large-scale exhibitions crowd intelligent service management, from the application of context aware systems in travel activities, the three aspects of population movement and the large exhibition crowd service operations are reviewed research on intelligent service management in large-scale exhibition activities, and on this basis, were briefly reviewed, and pointed out that the current study of large-scale exhibition crowd service management deficiencies.
The third chapter, from the perspective of the system of the crowd intelligent service management in large-scale exhibitions. First, put forward the definition of large-scale exhibition crowd intelligent service system, introduces the system's basic dimensions, including the elements of the system, the system goal, system structure, system state and system environment, expounds the system information perception and publishing technology. Then, put forward system control and optimization problems in-depth study, and established a large-scale exhibition service preparation, service implementation and emergency control three-in-one whole process oriented integrated service operation management system. Finally, based on the analysis of crowd service demand on the design of large-scale exhibition crowd intelligent service decision support the overall structure of system, an overview of the system, introduces the main functions of the system, and puts forward the design and construction of database system.
The fourth chapter, ask the dependency network personalized tourist trip design problems from the perspective of tourist trip plan is studied. Considering the influence of the crowd, emergencies and road type of travel time, the time series model based on discrete time, through time series graph model of travel time in different time in different sections the traffic in the network. On this basis, put forward two kinds of traffic is in line with the actual large-scale exhibition activities, but also with the tourist trip design scheme of personal preference, which meet the optimal design of tourist travel day and days of visit plan needs under the constraints of the mixed integer programming models are established, the design algorithm of network planning and based on dynamic programming.
The fifth chapter, from the perspective of tourists visit coordination Multi-agent crowd service based on the coordinated control problem. Firstly, the design of the crowd intelligent service system based on Multi-agent, the basic structure of the system are described in detail, introduces the modeling method of Multi-agent system. Then, put forward the method of coordinated control of multi stage dynamic, based on the introduction of the method the concept of Pareto optimality, through the mechanism of selection of overall satisfaction of tourists for real-time dynamic decision target choose to visit next, using the Logit model for the tour route selection. Finally, taking Shanghai World Expo as the background, design the simulation test of Multi-agent system and compares the three schemes based on the coordinated control method analyze and test and sensitivity.
The sixth chapter, from the perspective of service security of mobile resource scheduling problem of large-scale exhibition. Introduces the concept model of mobile resource scheduling work, summarizes the process of mobile resource scheduling. On this basis, according to the requirements of service resources in large-scale exhibitions in diversity and prediction of resource demands, considering the multi resource scheduling the problem of future demand, and establishes a multi resource scheduling model based on the expected cost, based on network optimization and linear programming optimization in graph theory, a heuristic algorithm for scheduling multiple resources classification design and algorithm complexity are analyzed.
The seventh chapter, from the perspective of emergency response of large-scale exhitions evacuation problem. The emergency of large-scale exhibition activities, analyzes the characteristics of emergency, the occurrence mechanism of crowd accidents is discussed. Considering the large exhibition activities of emergency evacuation, often also need multi-source evacuation, evacuation and have more than one meeting point, studied and has a limited capacity to multiple emergency evacuation condition, set up a control path network flow evacuation model based on the design of heuristic algorithm for network flow control based on the critical path optimization, and the complexity of the algorithm is analyzed.
Finally, in the conclusion part, this paper summarizes the work of the paper and looks forward to the future research.

【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：F713.83

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