人民币汇率变动对中国贸易收支的影响及对策

发布时间：2018-01-19 04:11

本文关键词： 人民币实际有效汇率汇率变动贸易收支　出处：《中共山东省委党校》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：汇率是一个国家在进行国际经济活动时最重要的综合性价格指标，在国际金融和国际贸易活动中发挥着价格转换职能，，是调节一国贸易收支的重要杠杆，它的变动对一国对外贸易的平衡与国内经济活动的波动都具有深刻的影响。因此，许多国家通过调整汇率来达到调节贸易收支的作用，从而一国汇率变动的影响变得越来越重要，汇率变动的经济学分析一直是国际经济学和宏观经济学中重要的研究课题之一。自1994年中国汇率改革以来，由于东南亚金融危机的爆发以及全球失衡背景下中国经济增长的迅速发展，贸易顺差的不断扩大，外汇储备的剧增，使得人民币相继遭受了贬值和升值的压力，最终中国在2005年7月重新实行汇率改革，实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。自2005年至今，人民币持续平稳升值。汇率是一国参与国际经济活动的重要综合性指标，汇率的变化将直接影响一国的贸易收支，影响相关的产业发展和宏观经济增长，这一直是政界和学界关注的重点。本篇论文主要从理论和实证两个方面来分析人民币汇率变动对中国贸易收支的有关影响。本文主要由以下三部分：第一部分首先对汇率变动对一国贸易收支的影响进行理论分析。从7个方面简述了汇率变动影响贸易收支的理论发展历程。首先通过重商主义代表人物托马斯孟和大卫休谟的理论引出汇率变化与对外贸易收支之间的关系，然后分别从弹性分析法、时滞理论、吸收分析法、乘数分析法以及货币分析法等经典理论进行综述，从不同角度得出汇率变动对一国对外贸易的作用机理。第二部分是人民币汇率变动对中国贸易收支造成影响的实证分析。文章先根据现实数据，对中国1994年汇率改革以来至2010年的人民币各种汇率和中国的进出口总额进行回顾，并对二者之间的对应关系进行对照，分析出不符合经典经济理论的数据。通过各种不同类型的汇率比较，人民币实际有效汇率最能够反映出中国对外贸易水平，然后考察人民币实际有效汇率波动对中国进出口额的影响，并重点就中国出口额因人民币实际有效汇率波动而发生变动的现象分析原因。第三部分是根据前两部分的理论分析和实证分析，结合最近刚出台的“十二五”规划纲要中国际经济与贸易部分，考虑到当前人民币升值压力突出的实际，对中国的对外贸易提出对策和建议。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate is the most important comprehensive price index when a country carries on international economic activities. It plays a role of price conversion in international finance and international trade activities and is an important lever to regulate a country's trade balance. Its changes have a profound impact on the balance of a country's foreign trade and the fluctuation of domestic economic activities. Therefore, many countries adjust the exchange rate to achieve the role of adjusting trade balance. As a result, the influence of exchange rate changes has become more and more important. The economic analysis of exchange rate changes has been one of the most important research topics in international economics and macroeconomics. Due to the outbreak of financial crisis in Southeast Asia and the rapid development of China's economic growth under the background of global imbalance, the continuous expansion of trade surplus and the sharp increase of foreign exchange reserves, the RMB has been subjected to the pressure of depreciation and appreciation one after another. Finally, in July 2005, China reintroduced the exchange rate reform and implemented a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies. The exchange rate is an important comprehensive index for a country to participate in international economic activities. The change of exchange rate will directly affect a country's trade balance, related industrial development and macroeconomic growth. This has been the focus of political and academic attention. This paper mainly analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on China's trade balance from the theoretical and empirical aspects. This paper mainly consists of the following three parts: In the first part, the influence of exchange rate change on a country's trade balance is analyzed theoretically, and the development of the theory of exchange rate change affecting trade balance is described from seven aspects. Firstly, Thomas, the representative of mercantilism, is introduced. The theory of Mencius and David Hume leads to the relationship between exchange rate change and foreign trade balance. Then it summarizes the classical theories of elastic analysis, time-delay theory, absorption analysis, multiplier analysis and monetary analysis, respectively, and obtains the mechanism of exchange rate change on a country's foreign trade from different angles. The second part is the empirical analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on China's trade balance. This paper reviews the RMB exchange rate from 1994 to 2010 and the total import and export volume of China, and compares the corresponding relationship between the two. Through the comparison of different types of exchange rate, the real effective exchange rate of RMB can best reflect the level of China's foreign trade. Then the effect of the fluctuation of RMB real effective exchange rate on China's import and export value is investigated, and the reason of the change of China's export value due to the fluctuation of RMB's real effective exchange rate is analyzed. The third part is based on the first two parts of the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, combined with the recently issued "12th Five-Year Plan" outline of the international economy and trade, considering the current pressure of RMB appreciation of the outstanding reality. Put forward countermeasures and suggestions to China's foreign trade.
【学位授予单位】：中共山东省委党校
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.6

【引证文献】