中国外汇储备的来源对通货膨胀的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-21 13:19

本文选题：外汇储备的来源　切入点：经常项目　出处：《湖北大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：1994年中国外汇管理体制改革以来,在中国国际收支“双顺差”的影响下,外汇储备一直保持着快速增长的态势,中国外汇储备迅速增长的来源是国际收支中经常项目和资本与金融项目的“双顺差”,巨额的国际收支“双顺差”为中国带来了由于外汇储备过多而引起的货币供给、通货膨胀不断增加等问题,中国目前物价水平过快上升以及高涨的投资比例就是中国国际收支持续“双顺差”的直接结果。货币供给是一国宏观经济运行中的一个十分重要的变量,它是国内价格变动的根源。国际收支对货币供给的影响,可以通过物价水平的波动直接反映出来。不同来源的外汇储备经济内涵各异,对货币供给的冲击机制也不同。本文采用理论分析和实证分析相结合的研究方法,首先对中国外汇储备的来源的现状进行了分析,接着通过经常项目和资本与金融项目明细表分析外汇储备来源的变动,在此基础上重点分析外汇储备的来源对通货膨胀的影响路径,分别从中国经常项目顺差、资本与金融项目顺差、净误差与遗漏项目三个方面对通货膨胀的影响进行阐述,认为中国经常项目顺差虽然数额很大,但是通过货币供给的路径对通货膨胀产生的影响没有资本与金融项目顺差对通货膨胀产生的影响大。然后基于协整理论对这一结论进行了检验,实证结果表明作为外汇储备主要来源的进出口差额与直接投资顺差均是引起通货膨胀的原因,但是直接投资顺差对通货膨胀的影响更为显著。最后结合中国目前的现状,提出针对外汇储备的来源中的不稳定因素对中国通货膨胀带来压力的政策建议,包括优化中国外汇储备的来源、加快对外贸易的转型和升级以及完善人民币汇率制度。
[Abstract]:Since 1994 China foreign exchange management system reform in China "double surplus" under the influence of the foreign exchange reserve has maintained a rapid growth trend, the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves Chinese source is the international balance of current account and capital and financial account of the "double surplus", the huge "double surplus" Chinese brought due to excessive foreign exchange reserves caused by money supply, inflation continues to increase, the current price level China rapid rise and high investment ratio is the continuous "double surplus" China payments directly. Money supply is a very important variable in economy, it is the root causes of domestic price changes. The balance of payments on money supply, can be directly reflected by the price level fluctuations.
Different sources of foreign exchange reserves of different economic meaning, the impact mechanism of money supply is different. This paper uses the combined method of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of the status quo, first source of foreign exchange reserves China were analyzed, followed by the current account and capital and financial projects list of sources of foreign exchange reserves on the basis of changes focus on the path analysis of the sources of foreign exchange reserves on the impact of inflation, respectively from the China current-account surplus, capital and financial account surplus, elaborates the influence of three aspects of the net errors and omissions of inflation, that Chinese current-account surplus although the amount is large, but the impact of the path through the money supply on inflation did not affect capital with the financial account surplus of inflation generated. Then based on the cointegration theory to the conclusion of the test The empirical results show that, as a major source of foreign exchange reserve balance of imports and exports and direct investment surplus are causes of inflation, but the impact of direct investment surplus on inflation is more significant. Finally, combined with the status quo of the current China, aiming at unstable factors to the source of foreign exchange reserves in the Chinese inflation pressure policy recommendations. Including the source of foreign exchange reserves China optimization, accelerate the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade, improve the RMB exchange rate system.

【学位授予单位】：湖北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.5

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