外商直接投资对重庆市产业结构的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-06 21:07

本文选题：外商直接投资　切入点：经济增长　出处：《重庆大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：自1978年改革开放以来，我国吸引了大量的外资。外商直接投资对我国的投资规模和数量也在不断增加，外商直接投资对我国的经济产生了越来越重要的影响。重庆市作为继北京、天津、上海之后的第四个直辖市和长江上游的经济中心，也是外资企业在我国西部投资进行选择的重要城市之一。2011年国务院批复的《成渝经济区区域规划》把重庆定位为国家大都市，重庆的“两江新区”也是截止目前中国内陆唯一的国家级新区，亦是国家统筹城乡综合配套改革实验区的先行区、长江上游地区金融中心和创新中心。这也为重庆吸引外资创造了得天独厚的政策条件，外商直接投资对重庆的经济增长起到了重大作用。本文首先介绍了研究背景和意义、国内外研究现状，阐述了外商直接投资与产业结构的相关理论，并对重庆外商直接投资与产业结构的现状进行了总结，进而以重庆市的统计数据为依据，对外商直接投资与重庆经济增长和产业结构之间的关系进行了实证分析，随后结合重庆的实际情况给出了相应的对策建议。首先，本文利用时间序列分析方法对外商直接投资与重庆市经济增长之间的关系进行了分析，研究指出：外商直接投资与重庆经济增长之间具有正相关关系，尽管各自的增长是非平稳的，但它们之间存在一个协整关系；并且，外商直接投资与重庆经济增长存在单向的关系:即外商直接投资是重庆经济增长的原因，而经济增长不是外商直接投资增长的原因。其次，本文用Koyck几何分布滞后模型阐述重庆市实际利用外商直接投资对产业结构的影响。建立模型后，重点通过工具变量法和广义最小二乘法来消除内生滞后解释变量与随机扰动项的相关性和随机扰动项的自相关问题。研究表明：实际利用外资总额对第二产业GDP的边际影响最为明显且衰减最慢，对第一产业的影响最小且衰减最快。由此导致重庆市产业结构向第二、第三产业倾斜，，促进了产业结构的调整和优化。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China has attracted a large number of foreign capital.Foreign direct investment (FDI) is also increasing the scale and quantity of our country's investment, and it has more and more important influence on our country's economy.Chongqing is the fourth municipality directly under the Central Government after Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai and the economic center of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.In 2011, the State Council approved the "Regional Plan for Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone", which positioned Chongqing as a national metropolis.The "Liangjiang New area" in Chongqing is the only state-level new area in the inland of China up to now. It is also the leading area of the national experimental area of overall urban-rural comprehensive reform, and the financial center and innovation center in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.This has also created unique policy conditions for Chongqing to attract foreign capital, and foreign direct investment has played a major role in Chongqing's economic growth.This paper first introduces the background and significance of the research, the current research situation at home and abroad, expounds the relevant theories of FDI and industrial structure, and summarizes the current situation of FDI and industrial structure in Chongqing.Based on the statistical data of Chongqing, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth and industrial structure of Chongqing, and then puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions based on the actual situation of Chongqing.Firstly, this paper analyzes the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and Chongqing's economic growth by time series analysis, and points out that there is a positive correlation between FDI and Chongqing's economic growth.Although their growth is non-stationary, there is a cointegration relationship between them. Moreover, there is a one-way relationship between FDI and economic growth in Chongqing: that is, foreign direct investment is the reason for Chongqing's economic growth.And the economic growth is not the reason for the growth of foreign direct investment.Secondly, this paper uses the Koyck geometric distribution lag model to expound the influence of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the industrial structure in Chongqing.After the establishment of the model, the tool variable method and the generalized least square method are used to eliminate the correlation between the endogenous delay explanatory variable and the random disturbance term and the autocorrelation problem of the random disturbance term.The results show that the marginal effect of the actual utilization of foreign capital on the GDP of the secondary industry is the most obvious and the attenuation is the slowest, and the impact on the primary industry is the least and the fastest.As a result, Chongqing's industrial structure tilted to the second and third industries, and promoted the adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F127;F224

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