中国国际收支双顺差与人民币汇率政策研究

发布时间：2018-05-18 04:32

本文选题：双顺差 + 人民币汇率　；参考：《东北财经大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：中国国际收支的双顺差(以下简称双顺差)格局由来已久。20世纪90年代以来,除1992年、1998年的资本和金融项目①(非特别指明,以下简称资本项目或资本账户)和1993年的经常项目为逆差外,中国的经常项目顺差(主要表现为货物贸易顺差)和资本项目顺差(主要表现为直接投资顺差)已经持续将近20年。双顺差给中国带来巨大经济利益的同时也给宏观经济制造了不少麻烦。双顺差造成中国外汇储备巨额累积和人民币升值压力,外汇占款剧增,而央行的对冲干预行为又形成流动性过剩预期,造成通货膨胀和资产价格泡沫此起彼伏,最终导致宏观调控效果不佳甚至丧失独立性。同时,由于累积的庞大外汇储备集中投资于美元及以美元计价的资产,在美元兑人民币贬值战略下,外汇储备面临贬值风险。随着全球经济陷入衰退和发达国家的贸易赤字不断扩大,国际社会抨击中国刻意压低人民币汇率以获取不公平的贸易优势,要求人民币持续升值以缓解与中国之间的贸易失衡问题。本文的主要内容如下： (一)中国国际收支双顺差的发展历程及特征 1.从2005年开始,经常项目顺差逐渐成为中国双顺差的主要来源。其中货物贸易顺差占经常项目顺差的80%以上,而约一半的出口贸易是由加工贸易尤其是外商投资企业的加工贸易贡献的。服务贸易逆差已持续多年,且有扩大趋势。除2007－2009年为顺差外,收益项目逆差已持续十几年,产生逆差的原因主要在于投资收益逆差过大。 2.中国在外直接投资增幅长期低于外国在华直接投资增幅,使得直接投资顺差逐渐成为资本项目顺差的主要来源。中国在外直接投资规模偏小,仅占中国国际投资总资产的6%左右；中国目前有超过4万亿美元的国际投资资产,近70%属于外汇资产,绝大部分被动投资于收益率很低的美国等发达经济体的国债。 (二)分析中国双顺差的理论模型基于微观消费者的跨期消费最优选择模型,研究开放经济条件下两国经济的跨期消费和跨期贸易模式,同时从跨期资本流动角度对资本项目顺差与经常项目顺差之间的逻辑关系进行了梳理,建立了分析中国双顺差的理论框架,对双顺差的性质及其成因有了更深的认识。 (三)产生双顺差的国际背景和国内根源 1.美国等发达国家的“去工业化”过程适逢中国的工业化、城市化处于飞速发展阶段。一方面发达国家由于制造业转移到国外导致其商品贸易逆差成为必然,同时其快速壮大的服务业又具有不可完全贸易的特性,发达国家很容易出现经常项目赤字,另一方面中国凭借改革开放政策,及时承接了发达国家转移出来的工业产能。 2.全球按生产链分工的模式使得中国成为“世界加工厂”。中国制造具有生产成本低、制造技术相对成熟、经济开放程度较高等优势,许多跨国企业将制造工厂从发达国家甚至从昔日的东亚“四小龙”转移到中国大陆,相当于中国承接了大部分原本属于它们的贸易顺差。 3.中国实行出口导向型外资优惠政策。在出口导向的政绩观指引下,中国各级政府采取资源价格人为低估、出口补贴和关税政策等手段,鼓励出口、抑制进口扩大了贸易顺差。同时对外资实行超国民待遇,吸引外资不断流入扩大了直接投资顺差。 4.国内消费有效需求相对不足。中国从计划经济向市场经济转型当中不公平的资源配置方式导致经济发展不均衡和收入分配不平等,虽然国民总储蓄率很高,但居民储蓄在国民总储蓄中的占比较小,从而使得社会平均消费倾向和边际消费倾向下降,同时政府和国企主导的以投资刺激经济增长的方式推动了无效供给的不断增加,最终表现为经济整体性的消费需求相对不足。 5.国内过剩储蓄转化成投资需要借助国际收支渠道,扩大了资本项目顺差规模。由于中国金融市场不发达,在外资优惠政策的刺激下,中国过剩国民储蓄并非通过国内金融市场直接转化成国内投资,而是需要转道国际金融市场,以FDI的形式回流后弥补中国国内的实际投资一储蓄缺口。于是便存在国内储蓄为外国在华投资“曲线”融资的情况：一方面中国通过贸易顺差积累外汇储备成为资本输出国,主要投资于国外债券市场和货币市场,另一方面经由中国外汇储备融资的FDI又回流中国,主要投资于企业股权。 (四)中国双顺差的影响、可持续性与再平衡机制 1.双顺差对中国经济利益的影响双顺差造成外汇储备巨额累积,汇率管制下的对冲干预机制形成人民币升值预期,最终导致人民币升值的螺旋式“自我实现”。外汇占款成为中国流动性过剩的主要来源,而提高存款准备金率和发行央行票据只能暂时“封存”过剩流动性,实际上并没有消除流动性过剩带来的通货膨胀和资产价格泡沫预期。在双顺差格局暂难逆转的情况下,抑制流动性过剩的成本越来越大,中国宏观调控的独立性和有效性受到严重威胁。同时,在美元兑人民币贬值战略下,中国外汇储备的实际购买力迅速下降,经过数年贸易顺差辛苦积累的国民财富正被美元贬值战略不断“蚕食” 2.双顺差的可持续性短期来看,中国的贸易顺差将惯性存在,但规模将逐步缩小。但是现阶段,中国出口优势依然存在,政府和企业都不会轻易放弃这种优势；同时中国出口导向型经济转型需要时间,消费增长仍需时日,这些都决定了出口依赖不会很快消失。此外,由于中国经济增长前景相对较好,中国市场的投资回报率在全球具有较强竞争力,金融项目顺差规模也不会迅速收窄。但从长期来看,全球经济失衡难以持续,西方债务国家需要紧缩财政开支,国外需求萎缩似乎正在形成,未来对于中国出口的打击将是巨大的,贸易顺差可能会快速回落,迫使中国出口导向型经济结构尽快做出调整。 3.双顺差的再平衡机制多年的双顺差带来的经济利益使得中国有能力调整自身经济和金融战略。继续深化人民币汇率形成机制改革,扩大人民币汇率弹性；抓住国际货币体系从美元本位向多元化转化的机遇,推进人民币国际化战略,努力摆脱美元依赖；扩大国内消费需求,调整出口创汇型经济政策,加大对外投资。 (五)人民币汇率变动对贸易收支影响的实证检验实证分析方法采用向量自回归模型(VAR),进行了协整检验、误差修正、脉冲响应和方差分解。本文认为,人民币汇率对贸易收支的影响不显著,人民币升值短期能抑制贸易顺差的扩大,但从长期来说,人民币汇率对贸易条件的影响是不确定的,其效果取决于进出口商品的供求弹性。国外需求对我国贸易顺差的影响远大于人民币汇率,人民币汇率不是贸易顺差扩大的主要原因。同时发现,国内需求的增加对贸易顺差水平影响不显著。人民币升值并不能解决中国与其他国家之间的贸易失衡问题。 (六)人民币汇率决定机制现阶段汇率保持稳定预期有利于强化世界各国对中国经济的增长预期和对人民币的信心,有利于中国出口导向型经济的转型和人民币国际化战略的推进。但是人民币汇率稳定不能简单地“钉死”,应在提高国际资本流动监测能力的基础上扩大人民币交易区间的浮动范围,发挥市场供求关系对人民币汇率的影响。在推进人民币汇率制度改革的过程中,必须保持有效的对资本跨境流动的管制,同时应当尽快推进利率市场化进程。 (七)人民币汇率制度选择中国现阶段实行有管理浮动汇率制度符合当前宏观经济利益,有利于缓解人民币汇率的大幅波动对中国经济转型的不利影响。目前中国的利率和汇率市场化、人民币国际化、资本账户开放等改革措施正处于攻坚阶段,需要人民币汇率的稳定预期和汇率制度的灵活管理营造合适的改革环境。 (八)不足之处 1.由于本人学识有限,本文对理论模型的理解还不够透彻,计量经济模型略显简单,同时实证分析可能会因数据采集、处理的问题使结论偏离正确方向。 2.本文没有建立分析人民币汇率对贸易收支影响的创新性数量模型,仅利用现有成熟的计量模型进行了实证检验,没有建立更加精确的模型来求证汇率对我国贸易收支的影响。 3.由于汇率政策的选择受国家政策和经济改革路径的影响较大,甚至牵涉到国际政治因素,故本文没有建立分析人民币汇率决定机制的理论框架,仅结合人民币汇率对贸易收支影响的实证检验结果,对人民币汇率的决定机制进行了理论探讨。有可能使分析结果偏重于经验分析,对一些问题的看法可能过于主观,尚不够成熟和细致。
[Abstract]:China's balance of payments double surplus (hereinafter referred to as the double surplus) has a long history since the 90s century.20 century, except for 1992, the capital and financial projects of 1998 (not specifically specified, hereinafter referred to as capital account or capital account) and the 1993 current account deficit, China's current account surplus (mainly manifested in goods trade surplus) And capital account surplus (mainly manifested as direct investment surplus) has been going on for nearly 20 years.
The double surplus brought great economic benefits to China, but also made a lot of trouble to the macro-economy. The double surplus caused a huge accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and the pressure of RMB appreciation, the increase of foreign exchange accounts, and the central bank's hedging intervention has formed a liquidity surplus expectation, resulting in inflation and asset price bubbles. At the same time, as the accumulated huge foreign exchange reserves are concentrated in the US dollar and dollar denominated assets, the foreign exchange reserves face the risk of devaluation under the devaluation strategy of the US dollar against the RMB. China deliberately suppressed the RMB exchange rate to gain unfair trade advantages and demanded a sustained appreciation of the renminbi to ease trade imbalance with China.
The main contents of this paper are as follows:
(1) the development history and characteristics of the double surplus of China's balance of payments
1. since 2005, the current account surplus has gradually become the main source of China's double surplus. The surplus trade surplus accounts for more than 80% of the current account surplus, and about half of the export trade is contributed by processing trade, especially the processing trade of foreign invested enterprises. The trade deficit of service has been continued for many years and has expanded. Except for 2007-2 Over the past 009 years, the deficit has been sustained for more than ten years. The main reason for the deficit is that the deficit of investment income is too large.
2. the growth of FDI in China has long been lower than that of foreign direct investment in China, making direct investment surplus the main source of capital account surplus. China has a small scale of FDI, accounting for only about 6% of the total assets of China's international investment; China has more than US $4 trillion in international investment assets, and nearly 70% belong to China. Most of the foreign exchange assets are invested in the Treasury bonds of developed economies such as the United States.
(two) an analysis of the theoretical model of China's double surplus
Based on the optimal choice model of the cross term consumption of the micro consumer, this paper studies the intertemporal consumption and intertemporal trade model of the two economies under the open economy, and combs the logical relationship between the capital account surplus and the current account surplus from the perspective of the intertemporal capital flow, and establishes a theoretical framework for the analysis of China's double surplus. There is a deeper understanding of the nature and cause of the difference.
(three) the international background and domestic origin of the double surplus
1. the process of "de industrialization" in the United States and other developed countries coincides with the industrialization of China, and the urbanization is in the stage of rapid development. On the one hand, it is inevitable that the developed countries have been transferred to foreign countries because of the transfer of the manufacturing industry to foreign countries. At the same time, the rapid growth of the service industry has the characteristics of no complete trade, and the developed countries are easy to appear. On account of the current account deficit, on the other hand, China has undertaken the industrial capacity transferred by developed countries in a timely manner with the policy of reform and opening up.
2. the global division of labor in the production chain makes China a "world processing plant". China has the advantages of low production cost, relatively mature manufacturing technology and higher economic openness. Many multinational enterprises transfer manufacturing factories from developed countries, even from former East Asia "four small dragons" to mainland China, which is equivalent to China's undertaking. Most of the trade surplus that originally belonged to them.
3. China implements the preferential policy of export oriented foreign investment. Under the guidance of the export oriented political performance, Chinese governments at all levels adopt the means of underestimating the price of resources, export subsidies and tariff policies, encouraging export and restraining imports to expand the trade surplus. Capital surplus.
4. the effective demand for domestic consumption is relatively inadequate. The unfair allocation of resources in the transition from planned economy to market economy leads to unequal economic development and inequality of income distribution. Although the total national savings rate is very high, the population savings account for a relatively small amount in the national savings, which makes the social average consumption tendency and marginal benefit. Consumption tends to decline, while the government and state-owned enterprises driven by investment to stimulate economic growth have promoted the increase of ineffective supply, which ultimately shows the relatively inadequate consumption demand of the economy as a whole.
5. the transformation of surplus domestic savings into investment needs the aid of the international balance of payments channel to expand the scale of the capital account surplus. Due to the underdevelopment of China's financial market, China's surplus national savings is not directly converted into domestic investment through the domestic financial market under the stimulus of the preferential policy of foreign capital, but the international financial market in the form of FDI is needed. On the one hand, China has accumulated foreign exchange reserves through trade surplus to become a capital exporter, mainly in the foreign bond market and the currency market, and on the other hand, through China's foreign exchange reserve. The FDI of financing has returned to China, mainly investing in corporate equity.
(four) the impact of China's double surplus, sustainability and rebalancing mechanism.
The influence of the 1. double surplus on China's economic interests
The double surplus caused a huge accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, and the hedging intervention mechanism under the exchange rate regulation formed the expectation of RMB appreciation, which eventually led to the spiral "self realization" of the appreciation of the RMB. Foreign exchange occupied the main source of China's excess liquidity, while raising the deposit reserve ratio and issuing central bank bills could only temporarily "seal" surplus flow. In fact, it does not eliminate inflation and asset price bubble expectations caused by excess liquidity. The cost of suppressing excess liquidity is becoming more and more expensive, and the independence and effectiveness of China's macro regulation are seriously threatened. The real purchasing power of reserves has declined rapidly. After years of accumulated trade surplus, national wealth is being eroded by the US dollar depreciation strategy.
The sustainability of the 2. double surplus
In the short term, China's trade surplus will continue to exist, but the scale will gradually shrink. However, at this stage, China's export advantages still exist, both government and enterprises will not give up this advantage easily; at the same time, China's export oriented economic transformation takes time and consumption growth still takes some time, which determines that export dependence will not disappear quickly. In addition, as China's economic growth prospects are relatively good, the return on investment in the Chinese market is highly competitive in the world, and the scale of the financial project surplus will not be rapidly narrowed.
However, in the long run, the global economic imbalance is difficult to continue, and Western debt countries need to tighten fiscal expenditure. The shrinking of foreign demand seems to be forming, and the future is going to be a huge blow to China's exports, and the trade surplus may fall quickly, forcing China's export oriented economic structure to make adjustments as soon as possible.
Rebalancing mechanism of 3. double surplus
The economic benefits of the double surplus for many years have made China able to adjust its own economic and financial strategies, deepen the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, expand the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, seize the opportunity to transform the international monetary system from the dollar standard to diversification, push forward the internationalization strategy of the people's currency, and strive to get rid of the dollar dependence; Large domestic consumption demand, adjust export export oriented economic policy, and increase foreign investment.
(five) an empirical test of the effect of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance.
The positive analysis method uses the vector autoregressive model (VAR) to carry out cointegration test, error correction, impulse response and variance decomposition. This paper holds that the effect of RMB exchange rate on trade balance is not significant. The appreciation of RMB can inhibit the expansion of trade surplus in the short term, but in the long term, the effect of RMB exchange rate on trade conditions is uncertain. The effect of the foreign demand on China's trade surplus is far greater than the RMB exchange rate, and the RMB exchange rate is not the main reason for the expansion of the trade surplus. At the same time, it is found that the increase of domestic demand has no significant influence on the trade surplus level. The problem of trade imbalance between them.
(six) the mechanism of the RMB exchange rate decision
At present, the stability of the exchange rate is conducive to strengthening the expectations of the world's economic growth and confidence in the renminbi, the transformation of China's export oriented economy and the promotion of the strategy of RMB internationalization. However, the stability of the RMB exchange rate can not be simply "nailed down", and the ability to monitor the international capital flow should be improved. In the process of promoting the reform of the RMB exchange rate system, it is necessary to maintain effective control of the cross-border flow of capital and promote the interest rate market process as soon as possible.
(seven) the choice of RMB exchange rate system
At present, the management floating exchange rate system in China is in line with the current macroeconomic benefits, which is conducive to alleviating the adverse effects of the significant fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate on China's economic transformation. We should stabilize expectations and flexible management of exchange rate system and create a suitable reform environment.
(eight) inadequacies
1. because of my limited knowledge, the understanding of the theoretical model is not thorough, and the econometric model is slightly simple. At the same time, the empirical analysis may cause the conclusion to deviate from the correct direction because of the data collection and processing.
2. this paper does not establish an innovative quantitative model to analyze the impact of the RMB exchange rate on trade balance, and only uses the existing mature measurement model to carry out an empirical test, and does not establish a more accurate model to prove the effect of exchange rate on China's trade balance.
3. because the choice of exchange rate policy is greatly influenced by the path of national policy and economic reform, even involving international political factors, this paper does not establish a theoretical framework for the analysis of the RMB exchange rate decision mechanism, only combining the empirical test of the impact of the RMB exchange rate on the trade balance, and the mechanism of the determination of the RMB exchange rate is rationed. It is possible to make the result of analysis biased on the empirical analysis. The views on some problems may be too subjective and not mature enough.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

【引证文献】