货币反替代及其对中国股市的冲击

发布时间：2018-05-24 09:08

本文选题：货币反替代 + 热钱　；参考：《经济问题》2010年04期

【摘要】：货币反替代是指在一国的经济发展过程中,居民在本币坚挺且存在升值趋势下,普遍看好本币的币值或在本币货币资产收益率明显高于外国货币资产收益率时,改变原来对外币的偏好,从而抛售外币资产,持有本币资产,使外币过分集中于中央银行的行为和现象。在对"热钱"的内涵进行辨析的基础上,分析货币反替代的目的和渠道,并对1990~2007年货币反替代率进行测度,进而实证检验货币反替代对中国股市的冲击。研究发现:货币反替代规模较大、流动速度加快、反转性强;货币反替代与国内股票价格正相关,即货币反替代会推动国内股价上涨;当货币反替代出现反转时,则会引起国内股价下跌。
[Abstract]:Currency reverse substitution means that in the course of a country's economic development, residents are generally optimistic about the currency value of the local currency or when the rate of return of the local currency assets is obviously higher than that of the foreign currency asset under the strong and appreciating trend of the local currency. To change the original preference for foreign currency, thus selling foreign currency assets, holding local currency assets, making foreign currency excessively concentrated in the behavior and phenomenon of central bank. On the basis of discriminating the connotation of "hot money", this paper analyzes the purpose and channel of currency anti-substitution, measures the anti-substitution rate of currency from 1990 to 2007, and then empirically tests the impact of anti-substitution of currency on Chinese stock market. It is found that the scale of currency reverse substitution is larger, the flow rate is faster, and the inversion is strong; the currency reverse substitution is positively related to the domestic stock price, that is, the currency reverse substitution will promote the domestic stock price to rise; when the currency reverse substitution occurs, the currency reverse substitution will lead to the rise of the domestic stock price. Will cause the domestic stock price to fall.
【作者单位】：湖南工业大学财经学院;湖南大学统计学院;
【基金】：湖南省社会科学规划项目(08YBB315)
【分类号】：F832.51;F822;F224

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