利率期限结构、通货膨胀预测与实际利率

发布时间：2018-05-31 14:22

本文选题：利率期限结构 + 通货膨胀　；参考：《世界经济》2010年10期

【摘要】：本文研究了中国银行间市场国债利率期限结构对通货膨胀的预测能力,发现中国短期利率期限结构(特别是中短端)包含了未来通货膨胀变动的信息,因而可以作为判断未来通货膨胀走势的预测变量。与各国类似,中国实际利率也并不稳定,名义利率期限结构包含了实际利率变动的重要信息。在各项积极政策的作用下,中国已经成功抵御全球金融危机的不利影响,经济也出现了通货膨胀预期。从最近几个月利率期限结构走势来看,未来一年内中国存在着比较温和的通货膨胀压力,应引起货币政策当局和有关部门的高度重视。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the ability of the term structure of interest rate in the interbank market of China to predict the inflation. It is found that the term structure of short-term interest rate in China (especially in the short end) contains information on the future changes of inflation. Therefore, it can be used as a predictor of the future trend of inflation. Similar to other countries, the real interest rate in China is unstable, and the term structure of nominal interest rate contains important information about the change of real interest rate. Under the influence of various positive policies, China has successfully resisted the adverse effects of the global financial crisis, and inflation expectations have also appeared in the economy. Judging from the trend of the term structure of interest rates in recent months, there are more moderate inflationary pressures in China in the coming year, which should be highly valued by monetary policy authorities and relevant departments.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所;中国人民银行营业管理部金融研究处;对外经济与贸易大学公共管理学院;
【分类号】：F224;F822.0;F822.5

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