人民币汇率变动对中国食用植物油贸易影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 10:12

本文选题：人民币实际有效汇率 + 食用植物油　；参考：《华中农业大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：20世纪90年代后,中国食用植物油需求快速增长,其对进口的依赖也越来越强。食用植物油安全问题成为继粮食安全之后的又一国家战略性课题。在此背景下,本文重点围绕1990-2010年人民币汇率对中国食用植物油贸易的影响进行分析。首先,简要介绍汇率与贸易收支相关理论和国内外研究概况。然后,就人民币汇率制度演变历程进行了回顾,并就人民币汇率变化趋势以及中国食用植物油贸易概况进行了描述性分析。在此基础上,对中国食用植物油进出口的人民币实际有效汇率进行了测算。在实证部分,首先分析了人民币实际有效汇率对中国食用植物油进出口的影响。其次,分析了人民币汇率对中国食用植物油进口结构的影响,包括实际有效汇率对进口品种结构的影响,以及双边名义汇率对进口国别结构的影响。研究结果显示,在长期,国内实际收入是影响中国食用植物油进口的主要因素,而贸易伙伴国实际收入与中国食用植物油出口负相关,人民币实际有效汇率上升对进口和出口均显示出负面影响,但对出口影响更大。邹检验显示,在不同阶段人民币实际有效汇率对中国食用植物油进出口的影响存在较大差异。1990～2004年中国食用植物油进出口汇率弹性之和显著大于1,满足ML条件,但2005～2010年进出口汇率弹性之和小于1,不满足ML条件。在短期,滞后一期的人民币实际有效汇率对进口存在正面影响,同时,滞后两期的实际有效汇率对出口也表现出正向影响。对进口品种结构的分析发现,豆油的进口汇率弹性最大,其次是棕榈油和其他植物油,其进口汇率弹性大致相同,而菜籽油的进口汇率弹性不显著。对进口国别结构的分析发现,人民币名义汇率与阿根廷、印度尼西亚和马来西亚的市场份额呈现正相关,但与美国和巴西的市场份额负相关。根据上述研究结果,笔者认为中国食用植物油贸易逆差会进一步扩大,同时,其进口市场集中度也有进一步提升趋势。据此,提出加大对油料生产扶持力度,引导油脂加工业科学发展,拓宽油料油脂进口渠道,推广人民币结算等政策建议,以提高中国食用植物油自给率和产品质量,进而保障国家食用植物油供给安全。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990 s, the demand for edible vegetable oil in China has increased rapidly, and its dependence on imports has become increasingly strong. The safety of edible vegetable oil has become another national strategic subject after food security. In this context, this paper focuses on the impact of RMB exchange rate on China's edible vegetable oil trade from 1990 to 2010. First of all, it briefly introduces the theory of exchange rate and trade balance and the research situation at home and abroad. Then, the evolution of RMB exchange rate regime is reviewed, and the trend of RMB exchange rate and the general situation of Chinese edible vegetable oil trade are analyzed. On this basis, the real effective exchange rate of Chinese edible vegetable oil import and export is calculated. In the empirical part, the effect of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on the import and export of edible vegetable oil in China is analyzed. Secondly, the influence of RMB exchange rate on the import structure of edible vegetable oil in China is analyzed, including the effect of the real effective exchange rate on the import variety structure and the influence of bilateral nominal exchange rate on the import structure. The results show that in the long run, real domestic income is the main factor affecting China's edible vegetable oil imports, while the real income of trading partner countries is negatively correlated with China's edible vegetable oil exports. The rise in the real effective exchange rate of the yuan has a negative impact on both imports and exports, but it has a greater impact on exports. Zou test showed that there were great differences in the effect of RMB real effective exchange rate on the import and export of edible vegetable oil in China at different stages. The sum of exchange rate elasticity of import and export of edible vegetable oil in China from 1990 to 2004 was significantly greater than 1, which satisfied the ML condition. However, the sum of the exchange rate elasticity of import and export from 2005 to 2010 is less than 1, which does not meet the ML condition. In the short term, the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a positive impact on imports, while the real effective exchange rate of two periods of lag has a positive impact on exports. It is found that the import exchange rate elasticity of soybean oil is the largest, followed by palm oil and other vegetable oils, and the import exchange rate elasticity of rapeseed oil is not significant. An analysis of the import country structure found that the nominal exchange rate of RMB was positively correlated with the market share of Argentina, Indonesia and Malaysia, but negatively correlated with the market share of the United States and Brazil. According to the above results, the author thinks that the trade deficit of edible vegetable oil in China will expand further, and the concentration of import market will also increase further. On the basis of this, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions such as increasing the support for oil production, guiding the scientific development of oil processing industry, widening the import channels of oil and fats, popularizing RMB settlement, and so on, in order to improve the self-sufficiency rate and product quality of edible vegetable oils in China. Thus, the supply of edible vegetable oil to the country is guaranteed to be safe.
【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F752;F832.6;F426.82;F224

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