国际比较视角下人民币国际化对国际收支均衡的效应分析

发布时间：2018-06-22 05:26

本文选题：人民币国际化 + 国际收支均衡　；参考：《南京师范大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着我国经济的不断发展、综合国力的不断提高,作为交易媒介、支付手段和贮藏手段,人民币在周边国家和港澳地区被使用的频率越来越高、范围越来越广。再加上,国际货币体系并不稳定,主要国际货币的价值频繁波动,尤其2008年全球金融危机之后,国际货币体系格局面临着新一轮的调整,人民币成为未来国际货币的“热门人选”,因此,人民币的国际化问题受到国内外政界、学术界的广泛关注。但鉴于货币的国际化是一个成本和收益并存的过程,而我国的金融体系还不健全,人民币国际化必然会对我国的宏观经济产生重大影响。而代表一国外部均衡状况的国际收支,以及十几年间持续呈现“双顺差”的我国独特的国际收支结构,研究人民币国际化对国际收支均衡的影响效应是非常有价值的。针对人民币尚未实现国际化且仍在国际化进程中的现实,本文选择采用定性与定量的方法,在国际比较的视角下,研究货币国际化对国际收支均衡的效应。本文首先从货币国际化影响国际收支的途径入手,进行货币国际化对国际收支均衡效应的理论分析和模型推导；然后,分析我国国际收支“双顺差”的现状,并对人民币以及其他主要货币的国际化程度进行测度；接下来,选取1999年至2011年第一季度的季度数据进行实证研究,分析有代表性的几种货币的国际化对国际收支均衡的效应；最后,得出人民币国际化对国际收支均衡存在一个正的效应的结论,并针对随着人民币国际化程度的提高而我国的国际收支失衡却更严重的现实,分析原因,并为了尽快凸显人民币国际化对国际收支均衡的正效应,从推进人民币国际化的角度提出相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development of China's economy and the continuous improvement of the comprehensive national strength, as a trading medium, means of payment and storage means, the RMB is used more and more frequently in neighboring countries and in Hong Kong and Macao. In addition, the international monetary system is unstable and the value of major international currencies fluctuates frequently. Especially after the 2008 global financial crisis, the pattern of the international monetary system is facing a new round of adjustment. The RMB has become a "hot candidate" for the future international currency, so the internationalization of the RMB has attracted wide attention from domestic and foreign political and academic circles. But in view of the fact that the internationalization of currency is a process of coexistence of cost and income, and the financial system of our country is not perfect, the internationalization of RMB will inevitably have a great impact on the macro economy of our country. It is very valuable to study the effect of RMB internationalization on the balance of payments, which represents the balance of payments of a country and the unique balance of payments structure of our country which continuously presents "double surplus" for more than ten years. In view of the fact that RMB has not yet been internationalized and is still in the process of internationalization, this paper chooses qualitative and quantitative methods to study the effects of currency internationalization on balance of payments from the perspective of international comparison. This article starts with the way that currency internationalization affects the balance of payments, and then analyzes the current situation of "double surplus" of international balance of payments in China, and analyzes the theoretical analysis and model derivation of the effect of currency internationalization on international balance of payments. The paper also measures the degree of internationalization of RMB and other major currencies. Then, the paper analyzes the effects of internationalization of several representative currencies on the balance of payments by selecting quarterly data from 1999 to the first quarter of 2011. Finally, the author draws a conclusion that RMB internationalization has a positive effect on the balance of payments, and analyzes the reasons for the fact that the balance of payments imbalance in China is becoming more serious with the increase of RMB internationalization. In order to highlight the positive effect of RMB internationalization on the balance of payments as soon as possible, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions from the perspective of promoting RMB internationalization.
【学位授予单位】：南京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F224

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